'Forecast' In 2018, mobile phone AP brand manufacturers accounted for 30% of the research, Qualcomm slightly edged MTK rose slightly

1. 2018 mobile phone AP brand manufacturers accounted for 30% of the self-study; 2. Why Intel Gemini Lake still adopt the old 14-nanometer manufacturing process; 3.12-inch demand for recycled wafers! RS Taiwan / Japan factory expansion, stock hurricane; 4. 2018 noteworthy technology trend

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1. 2018 mobile phone AP brand manufacturers account for 30%;

According to the report released by DIGITIMES Research, the global shipment of Application Processors (APs) will increase by 5.1% by 2018, with Qualcomm still leading the market, followed by MediaTek. However, Apple, Samsung, Huawei's HiSilicon and other home-made chips infiltrated the overall smart phone penetration is expected next year, homemade chips accounted for the overall smart phone AP shipments will more than 30% .DIGITIMESResearch pointed out that, in addition to a small amount of export Samsung Chip, Apple, Hisilicon chips are not self-external supply, however, the three manufacturers for the global smartphone shipments of the top three companies, their products equipped with self-made chips, the sale of smart phones on the AP market has squeezed with the industry concentration Increase and continue to expand, forecast high-pass shipments next year, fear of decline of 1.2%.

MediaTek's target market and self-developed chip market less overlap, and the introduction of competitive mainstream products by downstream manufacturers to adopt, DIGITIMES Research forecast next year's shipments increased slightly by 3.6%, but also by the smart phone shipments From the architecture perspective, DIGITIMES Research believes that the Cortex-A53 is still the mainstream, followed by the independent architecture of the chip; from the process of observation, 28 nm is still the mainstream, to maintain a certain standard , The flagship smart phone AP will be 7 nanometer, 10 nanometer, 12 nanometer upgrade, 14 nanometer and 16 nanometer proportion drops; from the base band (Baseband) technology observation, 2G and 3G smartphone AP has its rigid demand into niche market DIGITIMES Research said that with the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), edge computing has become the new direction of choice for smart phone AP manufacturers through deep learning in smartphones, with the combination of graphics processors (GPUs), digital signal processors DSP) or heterogeneous computing smartphone AP on a neural network processor is becoming a trend. Next year, 20.3% of the world's smart phone APs will use heterogeneous computing Li deep learning inference (Inference) even learning task.

Why Intel Gemini Lake still adopted the old 14-nanometer manufacturing process;

Intel earlier released Gemini Lake, a low-cost PC market processor, in December with some improvements in functional integration and CPU performance based on a few early performance tests , Gemini Lake appears to have a reasonable evolutionary improvement that should meet the needs of low-cost PCs, but it is noteworthy that Gemini Lake may have been manufactured using Intel's 14nm process technology since 2015, rather than Intel What's more, the 14 nm + or 14 nm ++ process technology used to make higher end Core PC processors and Xeon?

According to Motley Fool, the outside world believes that if Intel Gemini Lake adopts the company's more advanced 14nm + or 14nm process technology, Gemini Lake should theoretically be able to get better performance and power consumption performance, but why Intel is still Only a 14-nanometer manufacturing process Gemini Lake, a major reason may be cost considerations.

After all, Gemini Lake and its predecessor processors are primarily targeted at the very low-cost PC market. Although Intel must provide a new generation of improved features and capabilities for low-end PC processors, this processor line also needs to meet Intel's tight cost structure Gemini Lake, such as the previous generation of Apollo Lake are mainly used in the PC for about 300 US dollars, these PCs due to the low price, so most of the larger, smaller storage capacity and poor display quality, but such low PC prices still have their fixed market, such as developing countries such as low-cost PC there is a certain demand.

Due to Intel 14nm + or 14nm + process technology to increase new features and technologies to improve performance, these performance enhancements can also inevitably lead to increased manufacturing complexity and chip manufacturing costs even jump from 14 nm to 14 nm + process The cost increase may not be significant, but if Gemini Lake was produced with a 14-nm process, this would result in a modest increase in overall chip manufacturing costs of $ 1 or $ 2, but the move still would not allow Intel to substantially change its competitive position in the market, Intel's acquisition of Gemini Lake, its more advanced 14-nm process, is a mere incremental cost, creating no other real help for Intel.

According to Intel's future product line, a reliable source FanlessTech recently revealed that Intel's next-generation Gemini Lake may be 'Gemini Lake +' and then the generation may be 'Jasper Lake' is expected to Gemini Lake + Generation Intel may adopt 14 nm + process technology, In particular, if Intel finally reuses the same basic Gemini Lake architecture, but still hopes to provide reasonable performance enhancements over the next generation, it will likely adopt 14nm + process technology, after all, Intel's 14nm process technology is about 12 times faster than the original 14nm %.

In terms of Jasper Lake, Intel is expected to be capable of producing 10nm process technology, mainly from Intel's recent outflow of product planning blueprint speculation that the blueprint shows Gemini Lake for the entire 2018 product line, Gemini Lake + may be the 2019 product line, Jasper Lake is expected for the entire 2020 product line.

The report speculates that although Intel 10 nanotechnology seems to take some time to develop into a cost-effective stage, it is expected that this stage should be reached by 2020 and applied to the production of the Pentium Silver and Celeron product lines that Intel may launch in 2020. DIGITIMES

3.12-inch demand for recycled wafers! RS Taiwan / Japan factory expansion, share price hurricane;

RS Technologies, a global leader in remanufactured wafer fabs, released a press release after the Japanese stock market retreated on the 28th. It announced that it will invest JPY1.1 billion in Japan's three woodworking plants in Taiwan due to an aggressive customer investment in boosting the demand for 12-inch recycled wafer products. Subsidiary RSTEC Semiconductor Taiwan Co., Ltd. (Ayers Semiconductor Co., Ltd., see photo) 'to invest more (including 400 million yen at three Mukuho and 700 million yen at Ayers Semiconductors) for 12-inch regeneration Wafer capacity.

RS pointed out that the above stimulation project is expected to start in the first half of 2019, when the monthly production capacity of 12-inch regenerated wafers will increase by 50,000 (of which 30 will be increased by 20,000 and that of Ayers Semiconductor will be increased by 30,000).

According to Harvest XQ global winner system quotations, as of 9:28 am Taipei time at 9:28 on the 29th, RS soared 4.03% to 6,190 yen, up as early as 8.9%; RS so far this year soared about 207%.

According to RS recently released earnings data show that in 2017 RS12-inch Remanufactured wafer total monthly capacity of 300,000 (global market share of 30%) .After the completion of the increase in production investment, RS 12-inch Remanufactured wafer monthly production capacity will be About 17% higher than the current level.

RS aims to increase the global market share of 12-inch recycled wafers to 40% by 2018.

RS pointed out that the consolidated operating income surged 73.2% to 6.65 yen as the consolidated operating income of Taiwanese affiliates soared in the previous quarter (from July to September 2017), boosting the consolidated revenue of the previous quarter (July-September 2017) by 21.2% to 2.903 billion yen from the same period last year. , Consolidated net profit soared 144.0% to 432 million yen.

RS estimates that consolidated revenue for the fiscal year (January-December 2017) will increase 6.8% YoY to Rs 9.45bn and consolidated revenue soared 63.7% YoY to Rs 2.55bn. Consolidated net profit will soar 87.4% to 1.32bn Yen.

RS's customers are TSMC (2330), UMC (2303), Sony, Toshiba, Sharp, Intel, IBM, Micron, Samsung, LG and others.

The so-called regenerated wafer is not a defective product when IC is manufactured. Instead, a wafer used for a monitor wafer and a dummy wafer is manufactured in a semiconductor IC manufacturing process for recycling and reusing The purpose is to reduce the cost of Test wafer and Dummy wafer

4. 2018 Technological trends to watch out for

In the upcoming 2018, other technology trends such as artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality (VR) and blockchain are all worth watching closely ...

In recent years, the technology continues to progress at an exponential rate, and each new year always welcomes a whole new generation of technology. The rise of 3D printing machines, Oculus Rift VR, more flexible robots and UAVs in 2014 In 2015, we unveiled innovations in mobile devices such as wireless payment, nanotechnology, and car-to-car communication (V2V). In 2016 and 2017, IoT, sodium-ion batteries and artificial intelligence such as Sophia ), Etc. By 2018, what new technologies will emerge may be unpredictable at this time, but what is certain will be even more intriguing in the coming years of new technology.

Here are some technical trends that we should pay close attention to in the coming year:

In the next ten years, it is estimated that half of the work may be replaced by AI robots

artificial intelligence

More real-world AI application needs begin to emerge in all sectors of the world in 2017. Technology giants such as IBM, Google and Microsoft, for example, continue to improve their automation technology to eliminate human error, and companies like Fujifilm and Amazon ) The company plans to leverage AI for most digital data services and enhance its legacy systems.

Kai-fu Lee, chairman and chief executive of Sinovation Ventures (former Google China president), says about half of jobs will disappear and be replaced by AI over the next ten years, and if this prediction is true, then 2018 The artificial intelligence of the year will make a difference.

Virtual Reality / Augmented Reality

As technology becomes more integrated into our lives, it is expected that more and more virtual reality / augmented reality (VR / AR) applications will be seen next.VR / AR is used in a wide range of applications: from more New immersive video games to train fighter pilots and a range of applications in between, and we expect to see even more applications incorporating this emerging technology by 2018. Head up displays (HUDs) The wearer provides the details of the environment, or allows users to connect to the Internet or connect to any device, not only by wireless transmission, but also without manual execution.

In 2017, the popular Pokémon Go game smashed downloads of games across the globe with augmented reality, generating over $ 30 billion in revenue in 2017 alone In 2018 we can look forward to seeing other similar VR / AR advances as other companies will try to copy the huge success of Pokémon Go.

Blockchain / Encrypted Currency

Predicting the trend of 2018 is to mention "cryptocurrency." Everyone is talking about it - from how it actually works to what it really is - these questions are still mysteries for many Not only is it a difficult topic to understand, but it has the added benefit of being almost untouched once it's in place.

Of course, you can buy bitcoin, but can you sell it to? You may ask why this fantastic new form of money will rise? The answer is simple, it is worth a lot of money. By 2017 , The value of bitcoin has risen more than a hundredfold, and if we expect this trend to continue through 2018, then cryptocurrency is certainly of concern.

Bitcoin is by far the most dominant cryptocurrency

Energy storage

As green energy creates a huge wave in the world energy landscape, the concept of energy storage will be more important than ever in the coming year, and rapid advances in green energy production technologies will require significant energy storage and equipment to Can continue to grow and compete with fossil fuels.

Numerous companies and start-ups, such as Tiamat, are working on new ways of storing or using energy, with sodium ion batteries expected to be at the forefront of the energy storage arms race. Sodium is a richer chemical that charges and stores Energy is 10 times faster than lithium and is expected to play an important role in the future.No one knows exactly how energy was produced in 2018 but we can safely assume that demand for energy storage will continue to expand.

Digital / cloud service

Digital data is an important part of our lives, and as such, we'll see more and more data being stored in cloud services like iCloud and Google Drive by 2018. You can now have the amount of data you can store No longer limited to the amount of built-in memory or hardware in your device.You can access all the information stored in the cloud whenever you connect to the Internet and email addresses.

In addition to free storage space, many companies offer other extra services such as low-cost terabytes of storage capacity.This type of cloud service is often used by entities and businesses that require large amounts of data storage, so keep an eye on 2018 Digital Cloud Services And technological progress.

There is always a mobile app you need!

application

No matter what you are looking for, there are always apps (App). How long does it take for the bus to come and check to see if the bus is coming? Can not find the key? Let Tile help you Belly hungry want to order delivery, of course, no problem, find food delivery App on the right. No matter what incurable diseases, almost all can find solutions on the phone's app.

We can expect to see even more apps that combine physical services with mobile apps by 2018. Just look at the success stories of Uber and Lyft, and as most of the services incorporate apps, consumers are more likely to buy products , But also help to promote consumption.

In addition to the six trends mentioned above, what technologies do you think should be of particular interest in 2018. We will also pay close attention to other industry developments. If any relevant technological evolution has been learned in the past, it will lurk in the next corner at any time Waiting for us to surprise.

Compile: Susan Hong

(Reference text: 6 upcoming tech trends to keep your eyes on in 2018, by Jean-Jacques DeLisle, contributing writer) eettaiwan

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