In terms of rhythm, in view of the current low inventory of the whole industry chain, the residual effect of the "banning order" is still in existence. Before Qingming, it belongs to the seasonal season of plastic mulching. In the first half of next year, we think there are still many opportunities for polyolefins under the mismatch of supply and demand. In May-July, due to the seasonal off-season, polyolefin prices or will be weakened, 34 quarter, LL subject to import pressure and substantive PP or splitting the price of PP, PP prices may even be expected to re-rise LL prices.
From the import and export situation in 2017, PE showed a significant increase in import volume. From January to November, the total import volume was 10.71 million tons, an increase of 1.82 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 20.44% over the same period of the previous year. 18% +. Exports, due to PE monthly exports of less than 30,000 tons, can be ignored.
The reason, we believe mainly with the light of the impact of raw materials, the external disk ushered in the more apparent PE production peak in 2016, the trend will continue until 2018. 2016-2017 polyethylene plate production capacity outside the disk A total of about 10 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the total polyethylene capacity in 2018. Expected to still have more than 400 million tons of equipment put into operation, the outer disk device is often faced with delayed commissioning, but many Indian and American devices are In the fourth quarter of this year, and some of the 18 units put into operation in 18 years, some of which have been commissioned for commissioning in 17 years. Considering that it takes a certain amount of time for commissioning to commissioning and stable production, we expect the fourth quarter and In the first quarter of next year, the increment of the import volume of the put-into-operation unit will be obvious after April-May of next year. Due to the larger volume of the external disk put into production, it is recommended to closely monitor the progress of the external disk production.
In contrast, the cumulative import volume of PP in January-November 2017 was 4.34 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons. The increase was mainly reflected in the significant increase of imports in early 17; the volume of export was 341,000 tons in January-November, An increase of about 100,000 tons; the net import increment during the year was only 150,000 tons.
16 years Outer disk put into operation 500000 tons, 17 years Outer disk put into production 980000 tons, 2018 expected to 1.08 million tons of external disk, external disk in recent years in a row of low capacity put period, leading to external disk PP prices in recent years continue to rise, the internal and external disk is also perennial Maintain the upside down level, and even export profits open, the stage of the plate PP exports of raw materials or finished products. PP end imports low, exports continue to increase the situation is expected to continue in 2018.
The basic volume of the outer disk put into operation confirmed that the actual size of the import volume and the rhythm of the swing, will be subject to the outer disk prices and import profits.
