With the rapid expansion of the mainstream TV screen size, the upstream panel companies in the high-generation line construction competition is also fiercer.The industry will be the 6th generation line as the high-generation line and the low-generation line of the dividing line, and 'high' or 'low 'The standard is to be able to economically and reasonably cut out the market size of the TV screen.
December 20, invest 45.8 billion yuan BOE Hefei 10.5 generation LCD panel production line put into operation ahead of schedule, which is the world's first 10.5-generation line, is currently the highest generation line. BOE 10.5 generation design capacity of 120,000 per month Glass substrate, its production for the LCD industry has a milestone in the development of important significance.
10.5 on behalf of the line put into operation, to guide the color TV to where?
Unlike CRTs, LCD panels are highly standardized products with little difference in product performance among different manufacturers, and the main performance difference of LCDs in the popularization of LCD TVs is the size. Compared with 8.5 on behalf of the line, 10.5 on behalf of the mother Glass substrate area of 9.9 square meters, 8.5 generations of 5.5 square meters is 1.8 times, 10.5 generations of mother glass substrate can cut 8 65-inch or 6 75-inch, and the cutting efficiency of 95%.
According to AVC Display Devices and Systems Business Unit, with the BOE 10.5 line lighting and the gradual ramp-up, the 65-inch shipments in 2018 are expected to show a year-on-year increase of 68% and 75-inch shipments An increase of 86% over the same period of last year. Under the lead of 10.5G, the global TV panel market in 2018 will be gradually shifted from the 55-inch large-size market to the 65/75-inch oversize market, and when the 65/75 and 55-inch prices shrink To a certain extent, the 65/75 inch market will usher in the outbreak.
In addition, according to IHS Markit data, for the first time in the third quarter of 2017, BOE won the world's largest market share of large-size panels (over 9 inches of tablet PCs, notebooks, monitors and TVs) with a market share of 21.7% Of the seats, the remaining several companies are LG Display, a group of Optoelectronics, AU Optronics and Samsung Electronics, the market share was 19.3%, 16.1%, 15.8% and 8.9%.
Choi Ji-long, vice president of research and development of devices and systems at Albatron Cloud said: 'Although BOE's large-size market share is already top of the list, it accounts for only 20% of the total. For a short period of time, production of the 10.5- However, in the long run, the 10.5-generation line headed by the BOE will be put into operation one after another, which will not only affect the prices of large-screen TVs but also drive the price changes of small-sized TVs. '
For the impact of small-screen TV prices, Cui Jilong think it will be divided into two stages, first of all, the 10.5 line of mainland production will make some Taiwan panel companies lose the price advantage of large-size, production of small-size LCD panels; then small size LCD panel supply surge, resulting in the overall price drop, and this effect will be reflected in two to three years.
Although QLED and OLED screens are considered as the alternative direction of liquid crystal technology, judging from the expansion of each big enterprise into a high generation, Cui Jilong believes LCD display will still be the mainstream in the future. In addition, with the commissioning of the 10.5-generation line, 8K The applications shown will also move to the next stage. According to IHS data, the compound market growth rate of 8K panel will reach 111% in the next five years, and the penetration rate of 8K will reach 25% in the large-size panel market above 60 inches.
10.5 on behalf of the trend of the line, panel business competition intensified
With the progress and development of liquid crystal display technology, liquid crystal also has the same "liquid crystal cycle" as Moore's Law.It is understood that the performance of the liquid crystal cycle is when some of the pioneering companies opened up the application of liquid crystal display products to create market demand for liquid crystal display After some time there was a shortage of supply in the market. As a result, new investments in existing enterprises took place and new entrants emerged. The rapid expansion of production capacity brought about by the new investment led to overproduction and falling prices, which caused the industry to decline. However, the price drop led to With the expansion of demand, there is a renewed shortage of production capacity and a new round of investment and entitlement. So the reciprocation is the liquid crystal cycle.
Just as the 6th generation line has lost its ability to economically cut on the 5th generation line, every change in the liquid crystal cycle is closely linked to the replacement of the liquid crystal production line. With the rapid 蹿 redness of 55-inch TVs, the market demand for large screens Also gradually emerged, and the production of larger-size display has been more than 8.5 generation line production capacity, standing in the perspective of the market to determine the layout of 10.5 on behalf of the line is imperative, but this pre-judgment is often accompanied by many risks and Full of uncertain market prospects.
Since the second half of 2008, due to the impact of the financial tsunami, the market demand in Europe and the United States has dropped sharply, and the liquid crystal cycle has suddenly entered a recession stage. The major LCD panel companies in the world have temporarily overcapacity issues. From a global perspective, In addition to the BOE 10.5 line of Hefei in the future, there will be 7 lines of 10.5 / 11 lines going into mass production in the future, including BOE Wuhan Line 10.5, CSOT Shenzhen Line 11, SDP Guangzhou Line 10.5, SDP The United States 10.5 generation line, LGD Paju 10.5 generation line and CEE Mianyang 10.5 on behalf of the line, many companies to 10.5 on behalf of the line expansion, the future is the possibility of overcapacity?
Cui Jilong told reporters that there is indeed such a risk, according to him introduced the current global demand for television steady around 220 million units, the total is unchanged, while the global mainstream TV is still the size of the main 32-inch, so if the average consumer Size increases did not meet expectations, there is indeed the risk of overcapacity.
However, the reporter also learned that 'overcapacity' is just a static concept, and the development of the industry is always dynamic, precisely because of the 'overcapacity' there will be liquid crystal cycle, the cyclical cycle that makes the scope of application of liquid crystal display The expansion of high-generation line is behind the lower LCD panel prices and larger screen size evolution in the long run, overcapacity is only a stage of innovation and industrial upgrading process.
The official announcement of the BOE Line 10.5 came from the announcement released on July 12, 2015, which stated BOE endeavored to start the project in the fourth quarter of 2015 (latest not later than March 31, 2016) and 2018 The third quarter officially put into operation, but in fact, BOE 10.5 on behalf of the production line speed far exceeded expectations, which also shows that China's panel makers around and control the global liquid crystal market faster than expected.
In Choi Ji-long view, BOE 10.5 on behalf of the commissioning of the line has a milestone in two aspects, from an industry point of view, this is the world's first 10.5-generation line put into operation, but also the world's highest generation line, with BOE 10.5 on behalf of the line , The new global production line will officially enter the 10.5-generation era; the other is the industrial development perspective. The commissioning of the 10.5-generation line means that the panel of mainland China will surpass the trend of Taiwan and South Korea and the industrial center will shift to the mainland.