introduction
CCID Consulting forecasts that China's semiconductor industry will have sales of 930 billion yuan by 2020. This bright figure has caused heated discussion and reflection.
The good news is that the target of 870 billion yuan set by the 13th Five-Year Plan is expected to be achieved. It also shows that the Chinese semiconductor industry is entering the best era of development under the guidance of a large fund.
930 billion yuan of thinking
What aroused the industry's thinking is that 930 billion yuan come from? What is the practical significance?
930 billion yuan is the calculated annual growth rate of 20%
Apparently 9,300 billion yuan is calculated on the basis of 20% of the industry's average annual growth rate. However, it is undeniable that the practice of industries in recent years basically follows this law. The growth rate of the design industry is much higher than 20%.
Foreign investment accounted for nearly half
Analyzed the results of China's semiconductor industry in 2016, sales of design, manufacturing and packaging were 1644, 1126 and 156.4 billion respectively, a total of 433.4 billion yuan. However, if the top ten rankings in statistics chip manufacturing are only accounted for by domestic enterprises 45%, also in the package, about 55% of domestic enterprises, reflecting the brilliant figures in China's semiconductor industry, of which about half of the output value of foreign capital to play.
The same analysis of the growth of China's semiconductor industry in 2020, in addition to the design industry is still the lead, expected to be as high as 390 billion yuan, the chip manufacturing industry up to 250 billion yuan, most of its value-added may come from Samsung, TSMC, Intel , Hynix, SMIC and other contributions, while the Yangtze River Storage, Jinhua and Changxin are still in the production ramp, the value is unlikely to be great.
Data statistics definition and caliber non-internationalization
Another issue that has been discussed for a long time is the statistics of China's semiconductor industry. For historical reasons, the past long period of the West's embargo on China's implementation of the high-tech embargo has led to the fact that the data statistics of the Chinese semiconductor industry are self-contained. Which is not exactly the same as the definition and statistics in the world (except China's IC design industry data is more consistent with the rest of the world) and thus lacks comparability.
Previously, due to the small data of China's semiconductor industry and the international classification of China in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all individually listed. Nowadays, as the weight factor of China's semiconductor industry is on the rise, this contradiction should be properly handled in the long run Well, but as the result of the adjustment may lead to a cliff-drop in data, this problem is hard to resolve in the near future.
OEMs in the design industry still rely on TSMC
According to data provided by IC Insight, in 2016, the top 10 pure foundries in China accounted for about 6 billion U.S. dollars, of which TSMC alone accounted for 44% to 2.655 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 14.85 of SMIC; Huahong's 3.75, and Huali's 1.95 3. The future if its 16-nanometer production line in Nanjing next year mass production, coupled with 28-nanometer core production capacity of Xiamen United core expanded to 25,000 per month, it is estimated that China's IC design industry Rely on China Taiwan region will be further strengthened. Industrial data jumped year by year, but the amount of imported IC is also rising
The localization rate is one of the main indicators in the 13th Five-Year Plan for the Semiconductor Industry. However, the amount of IC imports has risen in successive years in recent years. For example, by the end of November 2017, it has amounted to 234.45 billion U.S. dollars, which means that IC imports will reach 250 billion U.S. dollars this year Above, the growth rate of more than 13% over the same period.
However, some disturbing aspects of the industry feel that the industry has enjoyed rapid development in recent years with an average annual growth rate of 20%. However, the average annual growth rate of the IC market in China was only 7% in the same period. This shows that for the localization of ICs, The actual situation is that so far the amount of IC imports is still rising, but compared to China's panel industry, the panel import volume in 2016 has dropped to 30 billion US dollars, similar to the level of 2006, as shown below Shown:
Due to the differences between industries, the two industries may not be very appropriate compared with IC design industry in order to get export tax rebates and other concessions, it is possible that some products before the first export and then import back, undoubtedly increased the import of IC Therefore, the reason that China's IC import volume is still increasing year by year is complex and it may be hard to predict when the inflection point will be reached in the future.
Therefore, it is suggested that the index of domesticization rate can be further subdivided, and to separate the products whose product localization rate in several ICs grow more rapidly will be of benefit to the industry in raising awareness.
To improve from the speed of change to improve quality
The development of China's emerging industries are almost all surfing, the initial 'wave' is large and very rapid, the Chinese semiconductor industry led by the large fund also the same.
Accurate data is the basis of industrial analysis, while the bright numbers have a certain effect, but the key lies in the improvement of industrial competitiveness. Therefore, it is proposed that at this moment, we should rapidly change our thinking, not necessarily pursue too many figures, or create new ones 12-inch production line, but more should pay attention to the implications of industrial development, upgrading the quality of industrial development.
The improvement in the quality of China's semiconductor industry is manifested in those aspects, mainly by narrowing the gap, increasing the localization rate, global competitiveness and market share, etc. The current 12-inch production line with too much domestic investment in construction may not be a good sign, Should concentrate on running several unique chip production line.
At the present stage, we observe that the market risk in the semiconductor industry in China is getting higher and higher. The Western countries continue to contain the technology, and the international mergers and acquisitions, the strict control of high-end talent and the monopoly of their markets, Therefore, the breakthrough of China's semiconductor industry in each segment is very difficult, and the future market is a key factor. China's big market is actually a global market, but it is impossible to obtain advanced process technology with money There are enterprises from the internal needs to strengthen research and development is the fundamental way out.