Huge demand for wafer manufacturing in mainland China 'building tide'. Followed by the international semiconductor industry trends, many domestic and foreign manufacturers choose to invest in wafer expansion in China. SEMI data show that China's fab construction spending 2017 Year will reach 6 billion US dollars, will reach 6.6 billion in 2018. Over the past two years, the world's new 17 12-inch wafer fab, of which 10 are in mainland China; from 2017 to 2020, is expected to add the world's semiconductor 62 lines of which 62 are located in mainland China, accounting for 42% of the total. It is estimated that the newly built 12-inch factory in 2018 with planned production capacity of 70,000 units a month SMIC (Shanghai), planned month Capacity of 85,000 tablets of the core (Chengdu) and plan early 20,000 wafer wafer TSMC (Nanjing) and so on.
Construction tide has not stopped. December 5 San'an Optoelectronics and Quanzhou, Fujian, Nanan signed a 33.3 billion investment agreement to build high-end GaN LED substrate, epitaxial, chip R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; high-end gallium arsenide LED Epitaxial, chip R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; high-power GaN gallium nitride R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; optical communications devices R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; RF, filter R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; Semiconductor (power electronics) R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; special substrate materials R & D and manufacturing, special packaging products R & D and manufacturing industrialization of seven projects, and started on December 26.
On December 18, Xiamen Haicang and Hangzhou Silan Micro signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Xiamen. According to the agreement, the total investment is 22 billion yuan, planning and building two 12-inch feature process chip production lines and an advanced compound semiconductor device production line On December 26, Guangzhou YMCI project started with a total investment of about 7 billion yuan and a monthly output of 30,000 12 - inch wafer chips. After reaching the goal of producing 10 billion yuan in sales revenue, it will drive up and down the production of 100 billion yuan worth of products, It is estimated that the first half of 2019 will be completed and put into production.
More new fabs mean there will be a new round of wafer equipment investment in the next few years.Furthermore, the field of foundry industry can be said to be a technology and capital intensive industries, to build a 12-inch Line investment up to billions of dollars.According to the state consulting survey shows that the initial monthly production capacity of about 10k 28nm new fab, for example, the depreciation cost of the overall revenue of about 49%, compared with the first-line wafer generation Factories depreciation costs accounted for about 23.6%, and 25% of second-tier plants, new plant depreciation costs nearly doubled, while the indirect personnel costs, due to the new plant's key technical manpower, we must rely on at least higher than the market 2 ~ Three times the salary to attract professional and technical personnel, to enhance customer relationships and shorten the product volume of the learning curve, state consulting estimates that the indirect cost of the new plant accounted for 34%, far higher than the first-line and second-line factory 10.2% With 17.5%.
The scale of the investment is so great that mushroomed fabs have raised concerns in the industry that capacity utilization in existing plants has started to fall or even surpassed and what is needed to fill in the capacity of these new plants? Gu Wenjun, a research analyst, commented that the utilization rate of 12-inch fabs in the world is beginning to decline now. That is to say, 12-inch Fab capacity has begun to go down. Now 12-inch production capacity has begun to excess. Several 12-inch Foundries Capacity utilization has begun to decline, the domestic is concentrated in the low-end by low-cost fight, how so many people are willing to do Foundry? From universal steel to universal semiconductor, too far, governments may be prudent to think about their own region is suitable for development Semiconductor industry.
Market, capacity, process conversion triggered silicon wafer market soaring
Corresponding to the fab, China's enthusiasm for developing its own silicon wafer industry is also on the rise.According to IC Insights data, as of the end of December 2016, the global wafer capacity (calculated according to the 8-inch wafer) reached 17.114 million / Month, of which 10.8% of China's global production capacity market; IC manufacturing wafer capacity (calculated according to 8-inch wafer) in 2018 and 2020 are expected to reach 19.42 million / month and 21.3 million / month, It is estimated that the average annual growth rate will be 5.4% between 2015 and 2020. And the mainland's foundry's share will grow from 9.3% in 2015 to 19.2% in 2020. It is estimated that by 2020, the mainland wafer manufacturing capacity Will reach 4.05 million / month in the huge market demand driven by the burst of silicon wafer prices this year continued to rise and demand.
Another reason for boosting the silicon wafer rally is the steady growth in demand for silicon wafers in the past decade, with a reduction in the area of one IC made by more than 24% in 2016 compared with that in 2007, and an IC area of 0.044 in 2 in 2016 , Compared with 0.058 sq.ft. in 2007 and a decrease of 2 ~ 3% in 1 year, but the growth in demand from terminals has driven the demand for silicon wafers to grow by about 5% to 7% every year. Therefore, the overall wafer area is 3-5% Of the growth of the basic supply of suppliers did not expand this year demand suddenly broke out, naturally not have enough capacity to deal with According to DIGITIMES data from 2006 to the first half of 2016, the semiconductor silicon wafer industry after more than 10 years of oversupply , The majority of silicon wafer supplier profit is poor, making the supply side noodles in recent years quite conservative action, leading to 12-inch and 8-inch silicon wafers starting in 2017 from a tight supply status, it is estimated that the fourth quarter of 2017 12-inch The average selling price of silicon wafers is expected to grow by 20-30% over the same period in 2016, and the fourth quarter of 2018 will increase by 20-30% as compared with the same period in 2017.
In the field of silicon wafers, the industry agglomeration effect is also very obvious.Currently the global silicon wafer manufacturers to Japan, Taiwan, Germany and other five major manufacturers, including Japan's Shin-Etsu, Japan wins high SUMCO, global wafer, Germany Siltronic, South Korea SK Siltronic , With the top five suppliers covering about 98% of the market, while there were over 25 suppliers around the world in 1998. The five plants are now full, but the industry estimates the global demand potential of 12-inch silicon wafers a month Up to 6 million or more.
Under the normal out-of-stock prices, wafer fabs, which occupy market leadership, grab silicon wafer capacity one by one, and silicon wafer suppliers also give priority to these large customers. For example, TSMC and UMC grab silicon wafer capacity separately from Two Japanese silicon wafer suppliers signed short-term contracts, and even rumored TSMC in order to ensure supply has been negotiated with the silicon wafer plant the next 2 years, of which 20% increase in 2018; Micron, Intel, cell core, etc. have long advanced Contract package capacity and so on.
For mainland customers in the next 3 years out of new capacity, silicon foundry prices from 135 dollars to jump off and asked to pay a large margin, in addition to the semiconductor plant in mainland China pulled up the threshold, but also for other semiconductor plant to establish Quote bottom line, if not willing to accept the price of 110 to 120 US dollars, many land plants are willing to pay higher prices under the package capacity.Such a supply and demand for oligopolies in the silicon market, the prominent contradiction between supply and demand will force the localization of silicon. The significance of the big wafer project to China's semiconductor industry is that the upstream (raw material end) can be controlled autonomously.
China's silicon wafer factory investment
Unlike foundry, a new silicon fab capacity of at least 100,000, and the cost of 4 to 500 million US dollars, silicon wafer samples come out, the subsequent need for wafer fabs, IC packaging and testing plant Downstream industry chain testing and certification.Cover plant plus certification, it is estimated 1.5 to 2 years before mass production, and now reinvestment is to invest 12-inch or 18-inch manufacturers will also be the focus of consideration.
At present, there are at least 9 silicon projects in China, including Shanghai Xinsheng, Chongqing Su-Si, Ningxia Yinhe, Zhejiang Jinruihong, Zhengzhou Hejing, Yixing Zhonghuan Jingsheng Project and Xi'an Hi-tech Zone Project, etc. . Total investment scale of over 520 billion yuan, is planning 12-inch wafer production capacity has reached 1.2 million in the future to ease the silicon out of stock problem is expected in the next large wafer industry in the next few years will still be There are new players to join.
At present, the monthly production capacity of 8-inch silicon wafers in mainland China has reached 700,000 pieces / month and the capacity under construction is 265,000 pieces / month. With 8-inch production capacity, Zhejiang Jinruihong, Kunshan Zhongchen Round sub-company), Beijing Institute headquarters, with a total monthly capacity of 93,000 / month, far below the demand .12 inches, the current total demand of China is about 420,000 / month, is expected to total demand in 2018 For the 1090000 / month.Currently mainland China does not have the 12-inch electronic grade silicon production capacity, the earliest to the end of 2017. Shanghai New Semiconductor is expected to complete the first phase of product put into production, plans to produce 150,000 per month, to The second phase of 2020 production, plans to produce 300,000 per month, compared with the huge demand is not enough.
July this year, a total investment of 3 billion yuan, a 1.5 billion investment in Ningxia silver and 1.8 million 8-inch semiconductor silicon polishing film project in Yinchuan Economic and Technological Development Zone on the 6th of this project developed with independent intellectual property rights 40 -28nm and 16nm process 8-inch semiconductor polishing pad manufacturing technology, and for the next stage of 12-inch semiconductor wafer polishing technology research and development laid the foundation.
In September, Ferrotec (China) signed an investment agreement with Dajiang Industrial Cluster in Hangzhou to build 300,000 8-inch semiconducting silicon polishing pads per month and 200,000 12-inch semiconducting silicon polishing pads per month Round wafer project), with a total investment of 6 billion yuan.It is planned through the implementation of new investment projects, the formation of 8-inch and 12-inch large-size semiconductor semiconductor wafer large-scale production capacity.
In November, Jingsheng Electrical and Mechanical Services spent 500 million yuan and Central shares in Yixing City, the construction of integrated circuits with 12-inch large wafer production and manufacturing projects with a total investment of about 3 billion US dollars.
December 9 Wilson Silicon industrial base project signing ceremony held in Xi'an.The silicon industrial base project by the Xi'an High-tech Zone and Beijing core kinetic energy companies, Beijing Weiss Wei company tripartite investment, the project total investment of more than 10 billion yuan Of which Beijing Core Kinetic Investment Management Co., Ltd. was jointly established by BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd., State IC Investment Fund Co., Ltd., Beijing Yizhuang International Industrial Investment Management Co., Ltd. and professional team in 2015. The giant entered the market Investment in the silicon industry, the future is expected to break the semiconductor wafer industry entirely dependent on the situation of imports.
Although the scale of silicon fab investment is not as large as fabs, but also worried about whether these projects will result in excess supply of the market, resulting in avalanche of silicon wafer prices?
In this regard, the industry said that if the project can achieve mass production targets, 8-inch silicon does appear overcapacity; but due to the continued increase in demand and process complexity, energy-producing 12-inch wafer manufacturers will not be too much, Expected overcapacity in the field is not expected.Because 12-inch large wafer technology and process requirements are very high, the biggest technical difficulty is the growth of the crystal technology.
At present, the light doped silicon market accounted for about 70%, the crystal defects and metal impurities is very sensitive, only the world's top four manufacturers have production technology.For example, South Korea LG can only do 40% to 50% Of the yield, but to achieve 87% yield, the project is likely to be profitable, only the current super-silicon in Chongqing, Shanghai Xin Sheng really started to produce 12-inch large wafer technology road.