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1. The world's top 5 smart phone manufacturers are cut single, the smart phone industry in the end what happened?
Set microblogging / Xu Lun
'The current cold wave of this round of smart phones is not individual manufacturers, and the global industry is cold!'
Following last week's micro-network coverage Huawei, OPPO, vivo and other recent orders have been downward adjustment, and some manufacturers shrink the order of about 10% or more, this week the supply chain and then spread the news, Apple, Samsung joined the cut a single team .This also Means that the world's top five manufacturers of smart phone manufacturers have joined the cut single surge team.
Specific sources said that Apple has cut iPhone X orders, while the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus once again cut orders, while Samsung also started to follow up, cut the first quarter of 2018 orders, a decrease of more than two percentage points.
From 2011 onwards, the smart phone industry chain has experienced several ups and downs in the past seven years, such as 3G to 4G in 2014. However, as a whole, the major manufacturers are always in a state of "sadness and happiness", even if the stage of emergence The sharp decline is also only individual manufacturers, the whole industry chain or the overall growth in the progress of the current round whether it is from the adjustment, or involved in the fundamental changes have taken place in many industry insiders think: 'smart Mobile phone cold is not individual manufacturers, but also the problems facing the global industry!
Just last weekend, an annual depth article set micro-grid "plummeted, cut orders, price increases, out of stock coexistence: mobile phone supply chain fantasy 2017, and confused 2018" also caused widespread resonance in the industry.I recently visited When the major mobile phone manufacturers and supply chain enterprises, but also felt the unprecedented pessimism in the industry.
Why the global smart phone industry in the end? Why smart phones so sell it? This is a lot of people are concerned about the issue .In exchange with industry, I also sort out several consensus:
First, the market has entered a saturation stage
'The global smart phone market as a whole into the saturation phase' is undoubtedly one of the biggest factors.
In the past seven years, with the rapid rise of the industrial chain, smartphones have also grown rapidly and reached every user. According to the IDC report from an internationally renowned research institution, in fact, the global smart phone growth rate has been substantially increased since 2015 Decline to 2016, the global total shipment of smart phones to 1.47 billion units, an increase of only 2.3%, the entire market stagnation.
The global smart phone not only failed to maintain the growth but declined in the second quarter of 2017. According to the IDC report, global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2017 were 341.6 million units, down 1.3% from the same period of last year and down 0.8% from the previous quarter, however, Slight rebound in the third quarter, but only an increase of 2.7%.
The same goes back to the domestic market and became a watershed in China's smartphones in 2015. According to the latest IDC data, China's smartphone shipments for the full year of 2015 were 434.1 million units, up 2.5% YoY, but in 2016, In the wake of the tide, China's smartphone shipments in the full year reached 467 million, an increase of 8.7% from the previous year. In terms of quantity, it is estimated that 500 million units will become a hurdle for the Chinese market each year.
What is the Chinese market in 2017? The current research data has not come out yet, but from the Ministry of Industry monthly published national economic survey data, 2017 overall not optimistic!
Earlier media statistics Ministry of Industry released data show that the domestic mobile phone market for 11 consecutive months of decline in shipments, domestic mobile phone brand shipments decreased in 9 months.Especially in November, compared with the same period last year, domestic handsets fell 20.7%, down In terms of domestic and foreign brands, in November, the domestic mobile phone brand shipments of 37.245 million units, down 19.2%, accounting for 86.1% of the domestic market shipments over the same period, foreign mobile phone brand shipments The amount of 6,006,000, down more reached 28.6%.
Ministry of Industry statistics statistical size is the volume of shipments, and I recently got Sino data, from the sales side also confirmed the market weakness. The following figure shows that in February 2017, China's offline mobile phone market capacity growth rate dropped to near zero , Which means that the offline market has stopped. Even more frightening is that from April opened the plunge pattern, to September reduced by more than 15% year on year, as of October is still at -15%.
Second, replacement cycle elongated
Judging from the above analysis, at present, China and even the rest of the world have entered a stage of stock-based betting, in which the stock market can only be tapped without any increment and the replacement rate of users can be increased. However, this move seems hard now.
October 18 this year, Lei Jun microblogging share international research agency Counterpoint report, said consumers worldwide will be an average of 21 months for a cell phone replacement cycle of Chinese people for an average of 22 months, replacement frequency lower than Average.
Some industry sources said that in fact, the real user replacement cycle or longer Why long? First, weak innovation Second, the smart phone is getting better.
Yes, the better the smart phone is, the better the quality does not seem like a good thing, after Zhao Ming, Huawei's Honor President, told me in an interview: Huawei and glory cell phone users have to change machine cycles more than their friends, one of them The reason may be that we made good quality.My glory 6, glory 7 how many times are not bad.
Of course, this is just a joke, "helpless." If you do not do a good job, the brand is gone.
Third, the lack of smart phone innovation, the user is difficult to pay for the micro-innovation
The third point is to focus on the 'weak innovation' that we just mentioned. There is no doubt that innovation is the driving force behind the progress of the industry. However, 'weak innovation' has become a reality facing the entire industry.
Since 2011, the rapid iteration of smart phone hardware has experienced the processor's "nuclear warfare", screen resolution warfare, camera pixel warfare and memory warfare ... and the quality war started again last year. , Greatly enhance the user experience of smart phones.As the maturity of the supply chain, research and development of resources to grow, the more backward to keep the technology lead time is shorter.
Earlier this year, Liu Li-rong, Chairman of Jinli, proposed a 'camera war in the first half of the year and a full-screen war in the second half of the year.' However, dual-camera and quad-camera are popularizing in the whole industry soon and even China-made mobile phones lead Apple and Samsung up to six months Full-screen war, even before the fight, it has been popular to thousands of machines. Manufacturers difficult to maintain the technology leader.
In addition to the slow pace of innovation, on the other hand, the depth of innovation is also weakened, the most obvious is the 'full screen' in the first half we all think that a full screen will lead the replacement tide, but for now see this is a false proposition. Increased share of the screen, the essence did not bring the user a revolutionary experience, and fingerprints moved behind, many consumers more inconvenient to use (such as eating or working, the phone on the table, the back of the fingerprint phone also need to pick up the phone Can unlock).
Although Apple introduced 3D sensing face to unlock, but also some users said it would be worth the extra 3,000 yuan for this technology, will not pay for this.
2018 in the end how to go?
At present, the industry generally expects great technology in smartphones, big opportunities and great changes in the 5G era, but according to the Chinese government plan to officially commercialize 5Gs in 2020, the earliest mobile phone manufacturers will launch 5G handsets in the second half of 2019. The future A year and a half, how to deal with major manufacturers? For the upcoming 2018 how to go? The same author also talk about the view:
1. Consumption of war preparations, 5 to 10 manufacturers control the rhythm
China's mobile phone into the 'war on consumption' stage, this view is mentioned in an article by the author This view comes from a large number of data analysis.
According to Kantar Worldpanel, the latest market research firm, Huawei, Xiaomi, Apple, vivo and OPPO China accounted for 91% of the total market share of mobile phones by the end of October, up from 79% last year, which means that they Leading ZTE, Meizu and Lenovo and other companies are still further expanding their advantages, the latter is trying to find a foothold in the domestic market.
It can be said that the war on smart phones hit today, the damn little brand has actually died several rounds, leaving either have their own survival siege, or sales have been small enough to be negligible in this stock market game, the Chinese brand before Five mobile phone manufacturers to find a larger increase, only to continue to eliminate the second and third line brand.
In fact, millet this year, contrarian growth in large part because of this 'you die and win' results.Industry analysts believe that the 'music as the system' this year's collapse will market niche gave millet.In short, 2018 Consumption war will make 5 to 10 very uncomfortable, and even a crisis.
In summary, 5 to 10 manufacturers next year, the sense of crisis should be strong, so how to control the rhythm, how to find the market gap, and to consolidate the original user base is a priority, if you can successfully spend 2018, the future is also Have the opportunity to meet the 5G market changes, then there is a chance to rise again.
2. Minimally invasive superimposed, so that product experience to a higher level
Although the full screen did not activate the 2017 market, the technological innovation of the screen in the coming year will remain the biggest focus, including the gradual release of flexible screen production in the supply chain and the differentiated appearance of the opposite-sex screen.
Micro-innovation requires more than one overlay to have effect, so currently we can see in addition to the screen, there are wireless charging, in-screen fingerprint, 3D sensing, the appearance of material, 'AI technology' and so on.
Wireless charging: Some people say that wireless charging is also very tasteless, not the case. Before the revolution in battery technology, wireless charging will change the way people charge, that is, the use of fragmentation of time charging, such as at the table, cafes, shopping malls, etc., Desk, bar, etc., playing while charging, charging anytime, anywhere, this process does not need to find the connector, nor the power cord of the block.
In-screen fingerprinting, 3D sensing: Both technologies are technologies that change the way the lock is unlocked. In-screen fingerprinting complements the full-screen look and has now included programs such as Remittances, Synopsys, etc. 3D sensing, in the supply chain Also recognized, and major manufacturers are actively fit them.
Appearance of the material: the appearance of the addition to the screen, there are material changes.After the plastic, metal, glass, ceramic is becoming a new material, supply chain related companies are also actively expanding production next year as the yield increase , The price estimate will be lower.
AI technology: At present, this technology is still very tasteless, but there is still some effect on the improvement of the small user experience.
In short, the user's enthusiasm can not be activated through big innovation, but the product can be micro-innovated through 'screen', 'wireless charging', 'in-screen fingerprint', '3D sensing', 'look and feel' Experience a new level.
3 2018 in the fourth quarter can usher in breathing opportunities?
The industry is pessimistic about the first half of 2018 at the moment, but others think there will be a wave of switch tide around 4Q 2018. The main reasons are as follows:
1. According to the above mentioned Chinese users replacement cycle of about 22 months, then the mid-2016 exchange wave, by the fourth quarter of 2018 is likely to usher in a wave.
2. Innovative technologies such as 'screen', 'wireless charging', 'in-screen fingerprint', '3D sensing', 'look and feel', 'AI technology', etc. The industrial chain will start to burst out in 3Q 2018, Machine will also come standard with these technologies, user experience and then upgrade.
3. Aspect next year is still overseas, in recent years, Chinese handset manufacturers continue to sow in India, Europe, North America, Africa and South America etc. In 2018, they will push Chinese brands and high-quality handsets in China to these markets. There will be a certain chance.
In conclusion, looking at the history of handsets over the past 20 years or so, the eve of technology and industry reform is always the most unpleasant phase. As long as we do not give up and try our best to find a breakthrough and die hard, we are sure to usher in a turning point and glory. , The charm of the mobile phone industry is also here (set micro / Xu Lun)
2. Older mobile phone era: 2017 millet Ov Huawei stable domestic first four;
Cell phone oligarchy
Feng Qingyan
Oligarchive trends have been around in recent years. Now the trend is even more obvious. China's handset makers are now Huawei, Xiaomi, OP-PO, vivo and Apple. We are fortunate to have a good hand at the new retail The layout is still at the forefront of the market, and we are a true toc company, "said Lin Bin, co-founder and president of Xiaomi, to the Economic Observer.
This year, China as the world's largest mobile phone market, the market shrinking sales situation, the nature of the upgrading of consumer upgrades into the mainstream, Apple iPhoneX selling by sales in the substantial growth of the four major Chinese mobile phone manufacturers still sit Maintain the most profitable handset manufacturers throne, the global mobile phone sales leader Samsung mobile suffered a substantial decline in China.
Huawei, millet, OPPO, vivo truly domestic mobile phone manufacturers in the top four positions, but also in the high-end mobile phone market, there is no shortage of innovative highlights.Xiamen first attempt to launch a 19: 8 full screen this year to become the new wave of Huawei Kirin 970IA chip Let the mobile phone technology innovation sense on the subject of apples. Millet experienced two years of trough this year to achieve 'full of blood revived' Once rely on 'low-cost hardware or even free' strategy to quickly seize the market, Le mobile as the capital chain rupture crisis has now been The public away from the line of sight, earlier 'China Cool' one of the cool has become its 'victim.'
In the second half of last year, the ups and downs of component prices sprawled out. In 2017, the series of upstream industry chains and other resources are gathering more and more with large mobile phone manufacturers. The trend of online and offline integration of mobile phone sales is obvious. On a series of factors, the threshold of technology competition is getting higher and higher, the ultimate entrance of the phone in the future era of Internet of Things still in the fierce competition is still intensifying circumstances, the strength of the Chinese mobile phone Manufacturers have to open the globalization strategy, looking for new opportunities for development.
Matthew effect tend to show
'This year the domestic mobile phone market is declining, last year the Chinese market, mobile phone shipments of about 500 million units may be down 15% this year.' '360 mobile phone president Li Kaixin recently told a new Economic Observer Economic Observer frankly.
As the world's largest mobile phone market, the Chinese market as a whole is shrinking this year, Sanofi market research report released from January to November this year, China's mobile phone offline market cumulative sales of 366 million units, down 8% over the same period last year, While the offline market accounted for more than 75% of the total mobile phone market in China. Researchers from various agencies all expressed their expectation of the negative growth of China's mobile phone market this year.
Mobile phone industry has entered a mature period, there is no pre-accumulation and the sudden rise of the opportunity has disappeared, the millet has enjoyed the Internet and smart phone dual-outlet dividend will not come back, had 'hardware free' strategy greatly rolled out of music suffered a halt, Even China's new top four mobile phone manufacturers 'Hua Miao OV', but also in the 'high-end', 'low-end' market both sides break through, high-end market bias to technology research and innovation as a breakthrough point, the low end tend to cost And channel efficiency improvement as a breakthrough point.
GfK, a world-renowned data research firm, released its domestic smartphone sales in October. Overall, the overall smartphone market in China slowed down in October, down 1.4% from the same period of last year. On the other hand, Huawei sold 22.77% of its market share Maintain the position of the market first, to maintain the contrarian steady growth OPPO, vivo, Apple, millet, etc. out of 2335 (6.000, -0.07, -1.15%) bit, the top five brands accounted for a total of more than 82 smartphones in China % Share of sales, Matthew effect significantly.
Huawei and Lenovo are the typical examples under the Matthew Effect. Huawei mobile phones continue to introduce new technology trends based on the mate and p-series, including the mate10 series, a flagship artificial intelligence system equipped with self-developed AI chips, and the static Take pictures and run points and other advantages of 100 points, allowing them to lead the domestic mobile phone benchmark Apple and Samsung's high-end machines, while the Lenovo mobile phone in its strategic readjustment cancel ZUK and other brands only retain the Moto brand, although the determination of reform is very big move , But the overall supply chain resources to more and more large enterprises, downstream users more and more attention to experience the case, the reform is not ideal, Lenovo mobile phone sales in 2016 less than 5 million units, I am afraid this year, there is hardly a big improvement , Or even worse than the hammer, mobile phone brand such as 360. At the same time, Meizu Huangzhang regression this year, the situation continues to spread high-level and structural adjustment, and even lead to storm off shop, trying to get 'rebirth', now Look is still unknown.
Market battle
The age of 'cake growing' in China's mobile phone market has gone away, replacing the 'more monogamy' and 'grabbing food from opponents' .This bloody pressure exists not only in front of those small handset manufacturers, but also In the first mobile phone camp in China.
Although glory this year still won the first January of China's Internet brand mobile phone performance for Huawei to bring good sales and sales, but the glory of the future campaign is obviously more intense.
'Ninety percent of the world's population is poor, low-end mobile phone companies have a poor market, do not underestimate them. Huawei also have to do low-end machines, our old products may precipitate is to do low-end machine.' Ren Zhengfei recently An internal Huawei conference said.
Coincidentally, Ren Zhengfei recently personally issued a "glory brand mobile phone commission commission program," because there is no cap on, 13 employees may get superb incentives for 23 staff bonuses, so that glory to become the focus of discussion, December 21, glory to A glory of 9 youth version of mobile phone new products and fully open the glory youth AI innovation plan as a new product launch this year.
Zhao Ming, president of Glory, reported to Economic Observer that this project can be said to have been somewhat glorified for its purpose of breaking down our internal hierarchies and barriers so that all forces and capable people and those who are willing to do so Like the song "wearethebrave," you only have to work harder than one who is conservative and unwilling to break one's own. This is what we really hope for.
'The market situation in 2018 may not be more optimistic, but the goal of glorifying the future is quite firm and far-reaching: the world's top five in three years,' said Zhao Ming.
It is fortunate that many domestic and foreign enterprises have made great achievements overseas despite the shrinking domestic market and intensified competition. In the third quarter of this year, millet in India surpassed Samsung to become a city Accounting for the first mobile phone company, and OPPO in Southeast Asia market, Huawei in Europe market, in Africa, acoustic, have a very high market share.
Tragedy and miracles
It can be said that this year's largest mobile phone industry tragedies and the biggest miracle, are from two Internet phone brands, the former is music, the latter is millet.
Leveraging on the eco-chain model of 'hardware negative profit and content earning money', Le Mobile has gained 5 million units in its launch year and surged to 20 million units in 2016. In the next two to three years, it has grown to become the top 10 domestic mobile phone sales, However, as the capital chain crisis, Jiayue Ting left the United States and other incidents, 'upstart' rapidly fallen into 'tragedy', until recently someone on the platform for the sale of music as 8, 9 into a new phone as low as 12 $ 100, no one cares. Music as the phone's fall, so before its acquisition by the Cool also become its 'victim', in 2015 there are 2.3 billion profit cool in 2016, a loss of 42.3 billion Hong Kong dollars this year, bank debt , Large-scale layoffs and other crises with the left and right, the financial chain is difficult to continue, the recent spread of its land for survival, 'live' has become its current sole goal.
The millet is the biggest miracle this year, IDC data show that the millet 2016 China mobile phone shipments amounted to 415,090,000 units, plunged 36% over the previous year's 64 million.However, this year's millet open counter-attack mode, Lei Jun in the near future is expected Millet shipments will exceed 90 million units.Micro millet mobile phone brands this year, the largest increase in sales of the brand few suspense.
3. Continental tablet OEM market share in the world has exceeded fifty percent;
Set the micro-mesh news, research institute IDC pointed out that in the third quarter of this year, the mainland flat-panel foundries in the Amazon, Lenovo and other orders growth 挹 note, shipments accounted for the global flat panel (including white) manufacturing as high as 50% of the total; Shipments by the brand factory shipments decline, accounting for the proportion of the global flat panel manufacturing declined slightly to about 30%.
In addition, the detachable tablet, Taiwan's share of global shipments of detachable tablet also declined from the previous quarter, accounting for about Liu Cheng; the other hand, mainland manufacturers due to the decline in demand for the ordinary flat-panel, turn to removable tablet, shipping Raise the proportion of nearly 30%, cross-Strait rivals in the OEM market has changed.
In view of this situation, the industry believes that the Taiwan-based foundry technology, the quality is still quite good, but the tablet is already a mature market, especially many brand manufacturers introduced low-cost models, are pursuing "low-cost, a small number of diverse" And other characteristics, Taiwan factory do not want to make this "meager profit", will naturally be converted to Lu series factory.
Xu Mei-wen, senior research manager at IDC Global Hardware Assembly Research Group, said flat-panel shipments in the previous quarter continued to grow under the peak season demand and major brand orders. The market demand showed a "bipolar development", including high-end and initial flat-panel shipments Volume growth significantly, but not easy to survive in the end plate.
In fact, since the launch of the first generation iPad, Apple has launched global brands to follow up the introduction of tablets, so that the penetration of tablets has risen rapidly. Among them, cheap white tablets are more important drivers for popularizing tablets. Flat panel is the main reason for the rise of land-based foundries, land-based foundries gradually from white to brand-name flat, threatening Taiwan's foundry position.
It is reported that the mainland foundry to BYD, Malata, Huaqin, love higher four home-based, foundry areas in addition to flat, there are some cross-foot white smartphone.
Industry insiders said that the mainland foundries and more failed to cut into the first-line brand factory, but no matter the technology, yield, have significantly improved Taiwan factory must be more alert.
4. Wentek set up artificial intelligence institute in Hefei, has participated in many AI project research and development;
Set micro-grid December 23 reported
Yesterday, Wen Tai Technology official release news, Wen Tai Technology Hefei High-tech Zone will invest in building Hefei Wen Tai Artificial Intelligence Institute, mainly for artificial intelligence terminal product development and design.
Song Daochu, secretary of Work Committee of Hefei High-tech Zone and director of CMC, introduced the industrial advantages of Hefei Hi-tech Zone and the industrial coordination effect with Wen-tai Science and Technology Co., Ltd. Song Dao-jun said that he hoped that in combination with the industrial advantages of Wen-tai Science and Technology, Hefei artificial intelligence and electronic information industries Stronger and bigger.
Wen-Tai Chang, chairman of science and technology said Zhang Xuezheng, the future is the era of artificial intelligence, Wen-tai technology in the field of artificial intelligence has a unique advantage, Wen-tao Institute of artificial intelligence settled in Hefei, just the first step in the next 10 years. Hefei and Hi-tech Zone government leaders with the support and help, Wen-tai also plans to build mobile Hefei smart mobile terminal research and development centers, mobile smart terminal manufacturing base in Hefei, this fertile ground for technological innovation from the components to the whole machine In the past 11 years, Wentai has accomplished its goal of producing 10 billion yuan in annual output value. In the next 10 years, Wen Tai will build one hundred billion-level artificial intelligence and mobile terminal industry platform in Hefei.
Figure: Hefei High-tech Zone Working Committee secretary, CMC Song Daojun (second from left), Wen-tai, chairman of science and technology Zhang Xuezheng (third from left) for the Institute of Artificial Intelligence unveiled
According to reports, the current Wen Tai has developed based on Qualcomm Xiaolong neural processing engine virtual reality products for the field of intelligent automotive embedded intelligent computing unit for the smart home intelligent home AI Center for Intelligent Hardware Intelligent Home Gateway / Smart Home Camera series of artificial intelligence products.When the 5G is approaching, Wen Tai Technology will also introduce more AI technology and software algorithms into mobile phones, VR, AR, car networking, smart hardware, notebook computers and other fields.
Wentai Artificial Intelligence Institute will undertake the research and development and design of Wenteng Artificial Intelligence terminal products, and will become the fifth largest R & D center of Wenteng Technology R & D Center, Shenzhen R & D Center, Xi'an R & D Center and Jiaxing R & D Center.
Wentech is the leading intelligent terminal ODM enterprise in the world and has enjoyed rapid growth in the past few years. In recent years, it has formed a mobile intelligent terminal business such as mobile phone as its core, and concurrently developed intelligent hardware, automotive electronics, notebook computers, artificial intelligence and other related industries Of the industrial layout, leading industry obvious.When the general industry slowdown in 2017, Wen Tai still with Huawei, millet and other high-quality customers to achieve high growth.Research institutions and investment institutions generally believe that Wen Tai Technology 2017 Shipments will exceed 80 million units.
Another note worth noting is that on December 20, Wentech announced that the shareholders of the Company, Tibet Zhongyin and Gao Jianrong, will transfer the unrestricted shares of the Company held by them to Yunnan Rongzhi and Shanghai Si Tong. Among them, Yunnan Rongzhi is the second The second increase after August.Shanghai Silicon is the first time shares, behind the well-known shareholder for the semiconductor industry investment fund 'Wu Yuefeng.' In addition, the announcement also announced that the company will completely strip the real estate business.
Over the past few years, 'Wu Yuefeng' capital in the integrated circuit industry conducted a number of large investments, is currently the most well-known semiconductor industry investment fund.Analysis that 'Wu Yuefeng' for the first time investment in ODM manufacturers, giving some room for reverie In addition, according to media reports, Wenxu Zhang, chairman of science and technology involved in the investment in a number of semiconductor mergers and acquisitions.
Bitcoin back to 15,000 US dollars a day rebound of about 4,000 US dollars
Sina US stocks Beijing time on the 23rd, bitcoin trading platform Bitstamp quotations show that bitcoin back above 15,000 US dollars, rose more than 7%, the day-earlier lows about 4,000 US dollars.
Yesterday, the bitcoin price once fell 4,794 dollars on the platform of CoinDesk, at 10,835 dollars, a decrease of 30.67%.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $ 19,800 on Sunday, hovering around $ 15,500 for most of Thursday. It started to slow on Friday night, dropping as low as $ 10770. Bitcoin fell 40% in five days and fell 7000 US dollars.