The latest core point of view
Semiconductor equipment: Industry volume and price Qi booming boom, the upstream silicon into the capacity expansion cycle Silicon wafer supply falls short of demand prices into the cycle, the industry into the volume and price rise of the high degree of prosperity .2012-2016 silicon wafer The price is very stable, but by 2017 Q1 price increases 10%, Q2 silicon wafer prices continue to rise, the cumulative increase has more than 20% since the third quarter of July contract price rose another 10% or so round this round of silicon Wafer silicon wafer supply tension caused by the main drivers of price increases are the following: 1, the downstream memory industry companies are investing in 3DNAND expansion; 2, artificial intelligence, automotive electronics, Internet of things, smart phones and other emerging industries The expansion of applications brought about by the expansion; 3, the global expansion of the wafer fab so that demand growth.
Wafer is processed from silicon wafer, downstream silicon wafer in short supply, but also bring the wafer industry capacity gap.Worldwide 92% of the silicon production capacity concentrated in the hands of five companies (Japan Shin-Etsu, Japan SUMCO, etc.) And no Chinese companies in August Japan SUMCO invested 400 million US dollars to build a monthly production capacity of 100,000 12-inch semiconductor wafers, put into operation in 2019. TSMC, UMC and other foundry leaders and Japan's leading silicon maker signed the future 1-2 years of supply contract.Generally silicon plant construction to production time is 2-3 years, so we expect the next few years out of stock of silicon will be normal.
At present, there are at least nine silicon wafer projects in China, with a total investment of over 50 billion RMB yuan, including Shanghai Xinsheng, Chongqing Super Silicon, Chengdu Super Silicon, Ningxia Yinhe, Zhejiang Jinruihong, Zhengzhou Synchronous Phase I and II, Wuxi Yixing Central Jingsheng Project and BOE Xi'an High-tech Zone Project, etc. At present, the total domestic demand is about 450,000 pieces per month, It is estimated that the monthly demand of 12-inch silicon wafers in China will be 80-100 million in 2020. At present, the monthly production capacity of 12-inch silicon wafers in China has reached 1.2 million, which can alleviate the shortage of silicon wafers to a certain extent.
SEMI forecasts that semiconductor equipment sales in 2017 will reach a record 559 billion U.S. dollars, with equipment sales growth rate highest at 49.3% reaching 11.3 billion U.S. dollars by 2018. On December 13, the International Semiconductor Manufacturers Association (SEMI) announced its year-end Forecast - Worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales will grow by 35.6% to $ 55.9 billion by 2017. This marks the first time the semiconductor equipment market has surpassed the market peak of $ 47.7 billion in 2000. It is estimated that sales of the global semiconductor equipment market in 2018 Will increase by 7.5%, once again breaking the historical record to reach 60.1 billion US dollars SEMI year-end projections indicate that in 2017 the wafer processing equipment will increase by 37.5% to 45 billion US dollars The front-end parts, including FAB facilities and equipment, wafer manufacturing and masking Equipment, is expected to increase 45.8% to 2.6 billion US dollars.Packaging equipment part will grow 25.8% to 3.8 billion US dollars, while the semiconductor test equipment is expected to grow 22% this year to reach 4.5 billion US dollars.
Investment advice: optimistic about the localization of silicon manufacturing equipment, devaluation 'Jing Sheng Electrical' We are optimistic about wafer manufacturing equipment localization, but also optimistic about the silicon manufacturing equipment localization; the same time that the core material of silicon segments Of the investment will be bound to promote the demand for key equipment such as single crystal furnace, focusing on the 'Crystal Sheng Electrical': the domestic scarcity of large-size single crystal furnace equipment manufacturers, is expected to achieve import substitution; the remaining concern: the leader of domestic semiconductor equipment 'North China invasive ', Large equity participation test machine and automatic sorting machine business' Chang Chuan Technology', high purity process system suppliers' pure technology '.
risk warning:
Less than expected landing orders, import substitution process less than expected