'The current cold wave of this round of smart phones is not individual manufacturers, and the global industry is cold!'
Following last week's micro-network coverage Huawei, OPPO, vivo and other recent orders have been downward adjustment, and some manufacturers shrink the order of about 10% or more, this week the supply chain and then spread the news, Apple, Samsung joined the cut a single team .This also Means that the world's top five manufacturers of smart phone manufacturers have joined the cut single surge team.
Specific sources said that Apple has cut iPhone X orders, while the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus once again cut orders, while Samsung also started to follow up, cut the first quarter of 2018 orders, a decrease of more than two percentage points.
From 2011 onwards, the smart phone industry chain has experienced several ups and downs in the past seven years, such as 3G to 4G in 2014. However, as a whole, the major manufacturers are always in a state of "sadness and happiness", even if the stage of emergence The sharp decline is also only individual manufacturers, the whole industry chain or the overall growth in the progress of the current round whether it is from the adjustment, or involved in the fundamental changes have taken place in many industry insiders think: 'smart Mobile phone cold is not individual manufacturers, but also the problems facing the global industry!
Just last weekend, an annual depth article set micro-grid "plummeted, cut orders, price increases, out of stock coexistence: mobile phone supply chain fantasy 2017, and confused 2018" also caused widespread resonance in the industry.I recently visited When the major mobile phone manufacturers and supply chain enterprises, but also felt the unprecedented pessimism in the industry.
Why the global smart phone industry in the end? Why smart phones so sell it? This is a lot of people are concerned about the issue. In the exchange with industry professionals, I also sort out several consensus:
First, the market has entered a saturation stage
'The global smart phone market as a whole into the saturation phase' is undoubtedly one of the biggest factors.
In the past seven years, with the rapid rise of the industrial chain, smartphones have also grown rapidly and reached every user. According to the IDC report from an internationally renowned research institution, in fact, the global smart phone growth rate has been substantially increased since 2015 Decline to 2016, the global total shipment of smart phones to 1.47 billion units, an increase of only 2.3%, the entire market stagnation.
The global smart phone not only failed to maintain the growth but declined in the second quarter of 2017. According to the IDC report, global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2017 were 341.6 million units, down 1.3% from the same period of last year and down 0.8% from the previous quarter, however, Slight rebound in the third quarter, but only an increase of 2.7%.
The same goes back to the domestic market and became a watershed in China's smartphones in 2015. According to the latest IDC data, China's smartphone shipments for the full year of 2015 were 434.1 million units, up 2.5% YoY, but in 2016, In the wake of the tide, China's smartphone shipments in the full year reached 467 million, an increase of 8.7% from the previous year. In terms of quantity, it is estimated that 500 million units will become a hurdle for the Chinese market each year.
What is the Chinese market in 2017? The current research data has not yet come out, but from the Ministry of Industry monthly published national economic survey data, the overall 2017 optimistic!
Earlier media statistics Ministry of Industry released data show that the domestic mobile phone market for 11 consecutive months of decline in shipments, domestic mobile phone brand shipments decreased in 9 months.Especially in November, compared with the same period last year, domestic handsets decreased by 20.7%, down In terms of domestic and foreign brands, in November, the domestic mobile phone brand shipments of 37.245 million units, down 19.2%, accounting for 86.1% of the domestic market shipments over the same period, foreign mobile phone brand shipments The amount of 6,006,000, down more reached 28.6%.
Ministry of Industry statistics statistical size is the volume of shipments, and I recently got Sino data, from the sales side also confirmed the market weakness. The following figure shows that in February 2017, China's offline mobile phone market capacity growth rate dropped to near zero , Which means that the offline market has stopped. Even more frightening is that from April opened the plunge pattern, to September reduced by more than 15% year on year, as of October is still around -15%.
Second, replacement cycle elongated
Judging from the above analysis, at present, China and even the rest of the world have entered a stage of stock-based betting, in which the stock market can only be tapped without any increment and the replacement rate of users can be increased. However, this move seems hard now.
October 18 this year, Lei Jun microblogging share international research agency Counterpoint report, said consumers worldwide will be an average of 21 months for a cell phone replacement cycle of Chinese people for an average of 22 months, replacement frequency lower than Average.
Some industry sources said that in fact, the real user replacement cycle or longer Why long? First, weak innovation Second, the smart phone is getting better.
Yes, the better the smart phone is, the better the quality does not seem like a good thing, after Zhao Ming, Huawei's Honor President, told me in an interview: Huawei and glory cell phone users have to change machine cycles more than their friends, one of them The reason may be that we made good quality.My glory 6, glory 7 how many times are not bad.
Of course, this is just a joke, "helpless." If you do not do a good job, the brand is gone.
Third, the lack of smart phone innovation, the user is difficult to pay for the micro-innovation
The third point is to focus on the 'weak innovation' that we just mentioned. There is no doubt that innovation is the driving force behind the progress of the industry. However, 'weak innovation' has become a reality facing the entire industry.
Since 2011, the rapid iteration of smart phone hardware has experienced the processor's "nuclear warfare", screen resolution warfare, camera pixel warfare and memory warfare ... and the quality war started again last year. , Greatly enhance the user experience of smart phones.As the maturity of the supply chain, research and development of resources to grow, the more backward to keep the technology lead time is shorter.
Earlier this year, Liu Li-rong, Chairman of Jinli, proposed a 'camera war in the first half of the year and a full-screen war in the second half of the year.' However, dual-camera and quad-camera are popularizing in the whole industry soon and even China-made mobile phones lead Apple and Samsung up to six months Full-screen war, even before the fight, it has been popular to thousands of machines. Manufacturers difficult to maintain the technology leader.
In addition to the slow pace of innovation, on the other hand, the depth of innovation is also weakened, the most obvious is the 'full screen' in the first half we all think that a full screen will lead the replacement tide, but for now see this is a false proposition. Increased share of the screen, the essence did not bring the user a revolutionary experience, and fingerprints moved behind, many consumers more inconvenient to use (such as eating or working, the phone on the table, the back of the fingerprint phone also need to pick up the phone Can unlock).
Although Apple introduced 3D sensing face to unlock, but also some users said it would be worth the extra 3,000 yuan for this technology, will not pay for this.
2018 in the end how to go?
At present, the industry generally expects great technology in smartphones, big opportunities and great changes in the 5G era, but according to the Chinese government plan to officially commercialize 5Gs in 2020, the earliest mobile phone manufacturers will launch 5G handsets in the second half of 2019. The future A year and a half, how to deal with major manufacturers? For the upcoming 2018 how to go? The same author also talk about the view:
1. Consumption of war preparations, 5 to 10 manufacturers control the rhythm
China's mobile phone into the 'war on consumption' stage, this view is mentioned in an article by the author This view comes from a large number of data analysis.
According to Kantar Worldpanel, the latest market research firm, Huawei, Xiaomi, Apple, vivo, and OPPO China accounted for 91% of the market share as of the end of October, up from 79% last year, meaning they Leading ZTE, Meizu and Lenovo and other companies are still further expanding their advantages, the latter is trying to find a foothold in the domestic market.
It can be said that the war on smart phones hit today, the damn little brand has actually died several rounds, leaving either have their own survival siege, or sales have been small enough to be negligible in this stock market game, the Chinese brand before Five mobile phone manufacturers to find a larger increase, only to continue to eliminate the second and third line brand.
In fact, millet this year, contrarian growth in large part because of this 'you die and win' results.Industry analysts believe that the 'music as the system' this year's collapse will market niche gave millet.In short, 2018 Consumption war will make 5 to 10 very uncomfortable, and even a crisis.
In summary, 5 to 10 manufacturers next year, the sense of crisis should be strong, so how to control the rhythm, how to find the market gap, and to consolidate the original user base is a priority, if you can successfully spend 2018, the future is also Have the opportunity to meet the 5G market changes, then there is a chance to rise again.
2. Minimally invasive superimposed, so that product experience to a higher level
Although the full screen did not activate the 2017 market, the technological innovation of the screen will remain the biggest focus in the coming year, including the gradual release of flexible screen production in the supply chain and the differentiated appearance of the opposite-sex screen.
Micro-innovation requires more than one overlay to have effect, so currently we can see in addition to the screen, there are wireless charging, in-screen fingerprint, 3D sensing, the appearance of material, 'AI technology' and so on.
Wireless charging: Some people say that wireless charging is also very tasteless, not the case. Before the revolution in battery technology, wireless charging will change the way people charge, that is, the use of fragmentation of time charging, such as at the table, cafes, shopping malls, etc., Desk, bar, etc., playing while charging, charging anytime, anywhere, this process does not need to find the connector, nor the power cord of the block.
In-screen fingerprinting, 3D sensing: Both technologies are technologies that change the way the lock is unlocked. In-screen fingerprinting complements the full-screen look and has now included programs such as Remittances, Synopsys, etc. 3D sensing, in the supply chain Also recognized, and major manufacturers are actively fit them.
Appearance of the material: the appearance of the addition to the screen, there are material changes.After the plastic, metal, glass, ceramic is becoming a new material, supply chain related companies are also actively expanding production next year as the yield increase , The price estimate will be lower.
AI technology: At present, this technology is still very tasteless, but there is still some effect on the improvement of the small user experience.
In short, the user's enthusiasm can not be activated through big innovation, but the product can be micro-innovated through 'screen', 'wireless charging', 'in-screen fingerprint', '3D sensing', 'look and feel' Experience a new level.
3 2018 in the fourth quarter can usher in breathing opportunities?
The industry is pessimistic about the first half of 2018 at the moment, but others think there will be a wave of switch tide around 4Q 2018. The main reasons are as follows:
1. According to the above mentioned Chinese users replacement cycle of about 22 months, then the mid-2016 exchange wave, by the fourth quarter of 2018 is likely to usher in a wave.
2. Innovative technologies such as 'screen', 'wireless charging', 'in-screen fingerprint', '3D sensing', 'look and feel', 'AI technology', etc. The industrial chain will start to burst out in 3Q 2018, Machine will also come standard with these technologies, user experience and then upgrade.
3. Aspect next year is still overseas, in recent years, Chinese handset manufacturers continue to sow in India, Europe, North America, Africa and South America etc. In 2018, they will push Chinese brands and high-quality handsets in China to these markets. There will be a certain chance.
In conclusion, looking at the history of handsets over the past 20 years or so, the eve of technology and industry reform is always the most unpleasant phase. As long as we do not give up and strive to find a breakthrough, and work hard to survive, we will certainly see a turning point and a brilliant future. The charm of the mobile phone industry is here.