 As mobile internet and smart-phone dividends approach ceilings, both big companies and entrepreneurs are exploring new opportunities, and everything is filled with unknown possibilities during the 'watershed' transition. Some entrepreneurs catch the tuyere and bend Overtaking, jumped into the industry's head business; there are also some companies may unfortunately left behind in the grand circuit, this sluggish. Qu Kai believes that the early investment will be harder and harder to do, and the high-quality resources and funds will be concentrated in the head and middle-and-late-stage projects. However, there may be four opportunities in this regard: blockchain, AR, AI and traditional enterprise integration. Xiao Meng today for everyone to bring Qu Kai on the 2018 Internet venture capital circle made some of the predictions, I hope to give you entrepreneurs inspiration. Fred Wilson writes two articles at the end of each year, one is the summary of the previous year and the other is the outlook of the following year. In this article, I also take pictures of cats and tigers. Compared with 2016, 2017 should be regarded as a year of venture capital investment. The main race opportunity in this big year is mainly one: new retail. Other sub-track opportunities are education, entertainment, WeChat Ecology and so on. There is less chance of pure Internet, so the early investment will be getting worse and worse.Although there are still many excellent early projects in 2017, so far, I still think that the big advance is correct . This is one of the Internet's declining processes, from pure tools to games, e-commerce, O2O, B2B, to new retail, etc. So even though many are optimistic about 2018, I'm still pessimistic. There are still four opportunities in the text will be mentioned later) Education is a big opportunity to see, and entertainment classes (especially video) are also my favorite opportunities. The second half of 2017, in addition to these, other opportunities are very few, up to several categories of second-hand trading platform, and share the car travel. Today, December 2017, I think the first thing to conclude is basically 2017. Especially for many U.S. funds, they will start their vacation next week, skiing and skiing out of the country, and then come back in 2018 It's For 2018, there are several potential changes that may have: 1) More vc will switch Recently, and many vc to do more for a long time, we generally point of view is relatively confused 18 years, of course confused is a normal, but another common point is that more and more people slowly see through the operation of a market , All feel to join themselves in the transaction, to deal with the deeper involvement, is the best way to make money (or to achieve personal value?). Whether you are doing vc, doing fa, investing yourself or saving yourself, investing deeply through options, or even jumping into a startup, these are more likely to happen in the future. After all, vc began to become an industry, the more mature the system, we will have more games. 2) early investment is not good to do The first point above is from the practitioner's personal point of view, and now it is from the industry as a whole. Early investment will only be harder and harder to do. High-quality resources and capital are concentrated in the head and middle and late projects (Zhang Ying said a few days ago the same view), even if an out of an early good project, but also a short period of time Bribed by capital to B, C rounds, and I think there are two main reasons behind this. First, the essence of the problem is that innovation is not enough. Therefore, there are fewer early flyaway projects and secondly, the role of innovation in all projects is low. Therefore, the capitalists clearly feel that by accumulating funds, resources and Station team, the final result of the war around. Second, the previous generation of entrepreneurs went to fight with people from the traditional industries, so even with less experience, their competitors' capabilities are still far behind. Now a new generation of entrepreneurs are struggling with the previous generation of entrepreneurs, Exit entrepreneurs, co-founders, outstanding executives re-start. In the first reason above, based on these people can leveraging more resources, but also let the industry more centralized. 3) How many unicorn can I have? At the two forums I attended last week, there were several investors or entrepreneurs respectively that raised this issue. Whether the pursuit of the US dollar fund unicorns is also suitable for this era? More RMB investment-style funds to pursue the number of projects, net profit of the project, but also exit the way more integration and mergers and acquisitions. This is still behind the bottom because of less innovation, and more innovative models. 4) Four exceptions At the beginning of the article, I mentioned that investment is not good, but there may be four opportunities in it. First, the blockchain. I bought bitcoin in early 14, but at that time the price was so volatile that I could not get hold of it, and now I look back and feel like I missed a wave of precious opportunities. I still have not studied Bitcoin or blockchain yet, but the reason I think there is a chance here is simple: I find that there are many people around me who are very accredited to recognize this, and I believe those people's ability to judge. Therefore, the blockchain may be the first opportunity to market next year. Second, AR On many occasions, I stress many times at different times. To say Grand Prix, my next favorite opportunity is AR. I think in 2018 there may be some AR-related small vents, which will hold many opportunities. But on the whole, AR still has to wait patiently.Everyone has a few chances in my life, I think the mobile internet is the last, and the AR is likely to be the next one (although many people have already considered the AI as the next one) . So, AR I think it will be the second chance. Third, AI In fact, I have always felt AI is not sexy enough, because I have been using the AI to compare with the mobile Internet. I attended an internal sharing this afternoon, the partner of Legend Star Li Ming shares a lot of his insight on the AI. When he said, I suddenly want to understand one of my mistakes before. I always feel that AI is not sexy, because I feel that AI is not a pure 2C things, unlike the mobile Internet can reshape all product-side scenarios and experiences.But my misunderstanding is that the mobile Internet is a channel revolution, so as a channel to link All C-side, but AI is not a channel revolution at all. AI is a kind of productivity revolution, just like the invention of steam engine and power. From this point of view, the value and potential of AI is still very large.Moreover, the revolution in productivity often requires the government to promote and build channels initially, for example Smart City, Autonomous Driving Road and many more. The industrial revolution before the channel caused by the remodeling of roads, railways, computer networks, etc., and AI will not bring about a new channel revolution behind the new channel revolution will contain more than the AI itself is still a big chance ? This is why I decided to re-study AI after today's meeting. Fourth, traditional enterprises continue to integrate In fact, this is also the continuation of the inevitable development of mobile Internet. And the potential opportunities behind this are SaaS and Buyout. Why SaaS? First of all, a lot of 85 began to embark on higher management post, they better understand the value of SaaS this thing, and secondly, all business appeals are the first to open source and then throttling, open source almost all the various sections Stream SaaS products will have more opportunities. Why Buyout? Because most of the traditional industries to transition or to the Internet with the most deadly problem is the genetic problems of the enterprise itself, but also a wave of traditional industry entrepreneurs to alternate nodes .I think this time in the country A real wave of trades based on a similar Buyout mode of operation can occur. The above is a brief review of some of the predictive articles I wrote in 2017 and some immature opinions about 18 years.
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