There is a strange phenomenon, a lot of companies in the industrial circle say and must call themselves 'chip giants'.
Each Kai Kai Jun securities brokerage research system, you can find a bunch of chip boss, confused exactly who is the real industry first.
Of course, the so-called giants are more expected recently LED chip giant San An Optoelectronic has made a big move: hit 33.3 billion huge investment in the construction of Quanzhou, Fujian Corey seven production projects.
Sanan Optoelectronics also gave the slogan "Goal:" It is planned to put into operation within five years and all the projects will reach full production within seven years. "
Indeed, this company has been regarded as a giant, take a look at the financial data will see the outcome.
Since 2013, the proportion of total chip and LED products in the total revenue has been over 85% .In 2016, the company's total revenue was 6.273 billion yuan, of which revenue from chips and LED products was 5.612 billion yuan, accounting for 89.46% of the total revenue %.
The third quarterly report released by the end of October this year was also equally eye-catching: the company achieved revenue of 6.3 billion yuan in the first three years of this year, up 40% over the same period of the previous year and net profit was 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 59% .Among them, the third quarter net profit 860 million yuan, up 63% year-on-year.
Fukai Jun to say that the data looks perfect, generous investment appears to have unlimited potential, but behind it is full of multiple questions?
First of all, let's take a look at 33 billion investment where to invest?
According to the announcement, the seven major production projects include: 1. R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects of high-end GaN LED substrates, epitaxy and chips; 2. R & D and manufacturing industrialization of high-end GaAs LED chips; 3, high-power GaN gallium nitride laser R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; 4, optical communications devices R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; 5, RF, filter R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; 6, power semiconductors Electronics) R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects; 7, special substrate materials research and development and manufacturing, special packaging products R & D and manufacturing industrialization projects.
All kinds of professional terms, Fukai Jun give you sum up: LED chips + high-end compound semiconductor chips.
The so-called high-end compound semiconductor chips are mostly used in 5G communication devices.As the general IC chip and 5G RF device chip is different, the former limited by the material properties, it is difficult to high-frequency, high voltage, high current chip applications.
Visible, triple optical value of this piece of business opportunities, but from the LED chip to 5G device chip easier said than done?
First, the optoelectronic enterprises cross-border microelectronics, often lack of ideas.Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of semiconductor researcher He Zhi pointed out that China's traditional semiconductor industry over the distinction between optoelectronics and microelectronics two areas, the lack of communication throughout the industry, usually assigned to gallium nitride Optoelectronics. Nowadays, power electronics and RF devices are the traditional microelectronics industry. How to effectively integrate resources to establish a healthy system, establish leading enterprises and find breakthrough products are the bottlenecks in the current development in China.
Second, domestic substitution is more difficult and faces fierce international competition.
It can be seen from the figure above that there is no advantage for Sanan Optoelectronics in the power amplifier (PA) industrial chain for 4 / 5G communication technology. From industrial links such as GaAs substrate manufacturing, epitaxial growth, wafer manufacturing and PA design , The major international giants have seized the site.For example, the most competitive PA design, how to snatch the severed cake Sanan, in the 33 billion investment plan did not elaborate, so the valuation of the premium is not yet Reflected.
Third, the strategic path is clear to be tested from the 33.3 billion investment situation, Mitsuhiro alone want to continue to maintain the leading LED position, on the other hand want to vigorously develop the concept of 5G gallium arsenide / gallium nitride PA device.
This is actually a step-by-step chess analysis said that in 2015, Sanan LED epitaxial chip production capacity reached 1.65 million / month, is the second market share of 2.5 times Hua Can photoelectric is expected to reach 2.2 million in 2017 / month .
However, potential production diversion will occur in 2018? CITIC Securities believes that the semiconductor industry to intensify the degree of concentration, the company leading premium more pronounced, the semiconductor chip has been sent to some domestic customers sample certification, and partially through the certification is expected to reach the project Produced stable output of compound semiconductor 6-inch chip annual capacity of 360,000, the size of the shoulders of the current foundry leader Taiwan's steady Mao, is expected to account for nearly 30% of the world's foundry share.
However, the so-called snatch 30% of the foundry share only an expectation, because from technology development to mature technology and then to occupy the share, take a long time, where these technological breakthroughs difficult to form a clear expectation at present.
Fourth, 5G really takes a long time to replace 4G, and the market uncertainty is increasing.
Let's start with a set of data. A report released by the Global System for Mobile communications Systems during this conference showed that 5G is accelerating but 4G has not stalled. As of the end of 2016, 580 4G networks were in existence In 1988. As operators continue to invest, 4G network connections will account for 41% of the total mobile network connection in 2020.
Visible, 5G business trends in the industry will take some time, but given the R & D period and the application period is too long, the security can really step on the 5G commercial opportunity before taking a step further.
According to San'an Optronics's P / E and P / B forecast, the new business of 33.3 billion investment can not be missed, and the company that created the myth of manufacturing has taken the next step.