At present, with the improvement of the income level of Chinese consumers, the spending power is gradually increasing, the awareness of consumers is getting stronger and stronger, and the demands for product quality and quality are gradually increasing. In our opinion, the structure of household electrical appliance products will change in the future. The proportion of products will be gradually improved, the brand concentration will also be improved, the advantages of leading enterprises will be further expanded.
At present, the concentration of China's home appliance market is gradually improving, the leading enterprises in the market share and product penetration is also steadily increasing, through the large-scale operation to maximize the amortization of R & D sales and management costs, the leading company's profitability so there has been steady Rise.At present, white and small appliances leading enterprises have reached about 30% of the sales gross profit margin, kitchen and electrical leading more is as high as 40% or more, and black leading enterprises due to fierce competition, gross margin fluctuations, the basic maintenance of 15% Around the lower level.We believe that at this stage, the competitive landscape of white goods, kitchen appliances and small household appliances industry is stable, the concentration is steadily rising and the gross profit margin is high, with higher profitability and investment value. In these industries, the market Leading enterprises with high share and steady profit growth have more investment opportunities.
White industry leading gross profit margin has been in the upside range
High profitability of the kitchen electrical industry with high profit margin
Small appliances business gross profit margin and stable
From 2005 to 2017, the market share of the top 5 black-electric industries has risen sharply
At present, China's household electrical appliance industry has gradually entered the latter part of the development of the industry, the level of industry concentration is already high, with the exception of a handful of small household electrical appliances, household appliances industry leading enterprises in the market share is higher and higher, the scale effect is obvious .Therefore, we I think there is still room for optimization of the industrial structure.
In general, the current competition in the home appliance industry is generally stable, and some of the products still have some room for improvement in market share. Leading enterprises, relying on the dominant position in the industry pattern, can expect high revenue growth in the future.
White: earnings rose steadily
As the white-electricity industry in our country gradually entered the late development, the market structure is relatively stable.Currently the concentration of white-electric industry has been higher, the air-conditioning industry sales of the top 4 companies reached 76.50% market share, washing machines and refrigerators before the sales The market share of the four companies also reached 73.6% and 65.1% respectively.
In the air conditioning market, Gree leading position was significant, its market share of 35.4%; in the refrigerator market, Haier 33.79% market share; in the washing machine market, Qingdao Haier and Midea Group's market share reached 32% and 29.5% share more than half of the market share.At present, the white market has basically dominated by domestic brands.From the current situation analysis, the domestic enterprises in the refrigerator, washing machine market concentration level there is still room for further improvement.
In the white electricity industry competition pattern, leading enterprises gross profit margin rising.In the past decade, the industry's leading enterprises Gree, Qingdao Haier and Midea Group's gross profit margin has been in the uplink range.As of the first half of 2017, Gree, Qingdao Haier and the United States Of the Group's gross profit margin was 31.94%, 31.19% and 25.23% respectively, up 5% to 10% from 2007. The optimization of the competitive landscape led to the substantial increase of the net profit margin of the above three companies from less than 3% in 2006 to 2016 14.33%, 5.67% and 9.97% respectively in 2014. In our opinion, the main factors contributing to the substantial increase of net profit of these leading home appliance enterprises are the average price increase and the improvement of industry profit due to the downward trend of raw material prices. In addition, there is another factor that can not be ignored , That is, the scale effect brought by the continuous expansion of leading enterprises such as Gree Electric Appliances, Qingdao Haier and Midea Group and the continuous improvement of market share has brought about a remarkable scale effect.
Kitchen Electric: focus on improving the profitability of large space industry
Kitchen appliance industry in China is still in the midst of development, market concentration to enhance the larger space.Silk hood and gas stove industry sales top 4 companies have more than 60% market share, the industry leader in the electrical appliances and the side too market share The rate is about 20%, Vantage shares market share of about 10% compared to the white industry leading Gree Electric Appliance market share of 30%, kitchen and bathroom leading 10% to 20% of the room for improvement.
Although the leading enterprises in the kitchen and electric power industry have obvious advantages at present, some small enterprises account for a total of 15% or so, and the total market share of the leading enterprises still has room for improvement.We believe that in the future large companies will further squeeze the market share of small enterprises, Leading enterprises in the market share will have more than 10% room for expansion.
High-end kitchen appliances leading competitive channel and channel changes bring high gross profit.Compared with other home appliance industry, the kitchen appliance industry leading average gross margin higher than the average white and small appliances leading 10%, profitability was significantly stronger than Other segments of the home appliance industry.We think the reasons there are two main points: 1. The kitchen and electrical industry's two leading boss appliances and side too products are taking the high-end route to avoid the price war brought by the phenomenon of price impairment occurred ; 2. brand kitchen electric power is gradually developed from a large chain of channels to build their own sales network has brought the cost of decline.High-end competition routes and channel changes for the kitchen and electrical leading enterprises to create a strong driving force to enhance market share, We think the market share of leading kitchen and electric appliances enterprises should also increase, and will be in line with the market share of about 30% of leading white electric appliances.
Small appliances: a large number of leading companies obvious advantages
At present, the concentration of small household appliances industry is generally high, but due to the large number of products, different time to market, different categories of small appliances present different levels of concentration. Small kitchen appliances, for example, the concentration is relatively low kettle Market CR4 (the concentration of the industry's top 4 share) has reached more than 50%, pressure cookers and cooker CR4 has more than 90%. Kitchen with small appliances Leading Midea Group, Supor and Joyoung shares has been in an absolute dominance, the United States Group Cooker, Induction Cooker and other products in the market share of more than 25%, Induction Cooker and electric pressure cooker is close to 50% .In the field of small kitchen appliances, Supor and Joyoung shares have 20% and 10% market share.
Small appliances industry gross margin stable and the volume of space for development are larger.Large enterprises rely on the existing high market share in the popularity of new categories and the expansion of existing categories more advantages.Large appliance company's overall gross profit margin at 30% of the range of fluctuations, high gross margin and more stable in the high profit this good foundation, many small home appliances, replacement faster, including small household appliances and small appliances in our life in the early development, with the With the promotion of consumption upgrade, we think the volume and price of development are larger.
Black Electric: Concentration of competition will continue to increase gross profit margin is relatively low
The overall concentration of black power industry, the market share of leading enterprises to increase space for more. At present, China's black power industry is more mature, the overall market concentration has been higher. From 2005 to now, the market share of overseas brands declined, Hisense , Skyworth, TCL, Konka, Changhong's market share has increased by about 5%, the market share of 10% to 15%.
There is still room for improvement in the concentration of the leading black-electric companies compared to leading manufacturers of white, kitchen and electric appliances and small appliances, and we think there is still room for competition and consolidation in the black-electric leading enterprises. At least 20% of CR4 Enhance the potential of the future of the leading television industry will continue to dominate the traditional TV manufacturers, leading by Skyworth, Hisense and TCL pattern worth the wait.
The competition in the industry is fierce and the gross profit margin is relatively low. As a whole, the competition in the market is still very fierce. The current relatively competitive landscape has not brought a good profit return to the leading companies. The gross profit margin Generally about 15% .Previous Internet companies make the industry a bit disorderly competition, price wars, advertising campaigns frequently have a negative impact on industry profits.TV is from the traditional durable consumer goods has become attached to the media and The attributes of consumer electronics terminals such as FMCG, definition and built-in broadcasting platform have attracted more attention due to their added value. Technological changes and faster product replacement will cause greater volatility in the market.
Based on the above analysis of white goods, kitchen appliances, small home appliances and black electrical industries, we think that the leading players in white goods, kitchen electrical appliances and small household electrical appliances have more investment value. At present, the leading white and small household electrical appliances enterprises have reached about 30% Sales gross profit margin, kitchen and electric faucet is as high as 40% or more, and black electric leading enterprises because of fierce competition, gross margin fluctuations, the basic maintenance of about 15% lower level.Currently China's home appliance market is gradually increasing the concentration, The market share and product penetration rate of leading enterprises are also steadily increasing. As a result, the profitability of leading enterprises has risen steadily due to the amortization of R & D sales and management expenses to the maximum extent through large-scale operation. We believe that at this stage, The competitive landscape of the electric appliance and small household appliance industry is stable, the concentration steadily increases and the gross profit margin is relatively high, with higher profitability and investment value. Leading enterprises with high market share and steady profit growth in these industries have more investment opportunities.
Compared with the international market, there is still room for improvement in China's home appliance market
China's per capita electricity consumption is still much more room for improvement than the developed countries, and the indicator of per capita electricity consumption can reflect the economic development level and people's living standards of a country or region to a certain extent.Comparing the per capita electricity consumption in various countries in the world, China Average annual electricity consumption per capita is less than 4,000 kilowatt-hours, about one-half that of Japan and one-third of that of the United States, and the per capita living electricity consumption in China is still at a developing stage, which proves that the degree of electrification in our work and life is still at a level Relatively low stage, the dependence on the household electrical appliances and utilization at a low level, the future is still more than double the space for improvement.
Statistics show that at present there are 123.7 units, 94.2 units and 96.4 units of air-conditioners, washing machines and refrigerators in China respectively, which are similar to the living habits and geographical locations Japan, there is still much room for growth in the future.
As of the end of 2015, the number of urban air-conditioners in our country per 100 households was 114.60 units, and the number of air-conditioners in cities and towns has a certain leading advantage over refrigerators and washing machines based on the properties of more than one machine. In the rural market, The number of refrigerators, washing machines and color TV sets held at 38.8 units, 82.6 units, 78.8 units and 116.9 units respectively were far lower than that of the urban market, less than half of the penetration level of refrigerators and washing machines, less than the national level of five Therefore, we believe that the future three-tier and four-tier cities and rural areas will be the major development areas for increasing the household appliance ownership in the future.
GDP crossed the inflection point three lines, fourth-tier cities consumption to be exploded
China's household electrical appliance enterprises have gone through the process of competition from importing, OEM manufacturing, joint ventures and cooperation in technology, sole proprietorship and development to the dominant market of their own brands later.In the fierce competition pattern, the scale of production capacity and technological capabilities of domestic brands continue to improve.
Judging from international experience, Japan and the United States entered the later stage of industrialization after the per capita GDP exceeded 6,000 U.S. dollars. Consumption and service industries grew rapidly, with the consumption demand and service industry GDP rapidly rising. At present, China's GDP per capita has already exceeded 8,000 U.S. dollars. First- and second- The urban population accounts for about 25% of China, and the purchasing power of some cities is close to that of developed countries. At present, the per capita GDP of some third-tier and fourth-tier cities in China has reached 9,000 and 6,000 respectively. Consumption in tier-3 and tier-4 cities Demand will usher in the outbreak.
Rural income and expenditure growth rate is greater than the urbanization process of urban appliances speed
Expenditure on rural household equipment and supplies surpassed that in urban areas, and the income growth of rural households and urban households clearly diverged, with the growth rate of rural household income surpassing that of urban areas since 2009. As of the end of 2015, the rural income growth rate was 8.9%, significantly higher Higher than the growth rate of urban households by 8.2%. In addition, the expenditure on household household appliances and equipment in rural areas has maintained a double-digit growth rate since 2010, more than that of urban areas.
In recent years, consumption of household appliances such as rural color TVs, washing machines and refrigerators has reached the level of the city, and as the living standards of rural residents and the quality of life improve, the living habits in rural areas will gradually move closer to the cities. Rural household appliances The process of urbanization has a good space for development.
Appliances to the countryside a new wave of trend will bring 400 billion market
After pre-home appliances to the countryside and other subsidies, the implementation of rural household appliances in China has significantly improved the current appliances to the countryside is gradually entering a renewal period, for which we use the product to the home appliances and the life of the update In order to more reasonable estimate of the number of appliances to update, we assume that the standardization of domestic appliances released by the National Standardization Administration of the service life of the median life span of appliances, home appliances sales from 2009 to 2012 as the main potential Update, and in 2013 the average price of the three major home appliances market as the base, the average annual price of home appliances rose 100 yuan to calculate, therefore we figured out, from 2017 to 2020, China's home appliances to the countryside will be replaced with the product To more than 400 billion yuan market.
Leading enterprises in rural market expansion has great advantages
The e-commerce model helped the channel to sink, and the leading online market of the leading companies still had an advantage. The channels of e-commerce in China are developing rapidly and the scale of online shopping has risen exponentially. As of the first half of 2017, the market size of B2C in China reached 860.46 billion yuan, of which 3C Home appliances) market has reached 298.74 billion yuan.From the current situation, the electricity supplier model will be home appliances enterprises to expand the market of new weapons, the leading online market is still dominant.Within 2016 to 2017, white goods offline market Of the advantages of online business is still dominated by the market, and the trend of more centralized.With the white industry, for example, the online market has obvious advantages of Haier, the United States and Siemens, the online market still has advantages and concentration Compared to Haier's market share in 2016 and 2017, Haier's online market share of washing machines in 2017 reached 28%, an increase of about 10% over 18.9% in 2016. Haier's refrigerator market share in 2017 was also higher than in 2017 23.2% in 2016 increased by nearly 5%.
The price advantage helps the growth of the third- and fourth-tier markets and rural markets to speed up, and the e-commerce model is more flattened, enabling the manufacturers to directly face the sales modes of consumers in the third- and fourth-tier cities, rural areas and remote areas, Line market and rural market growth speed.Electrical business model is mainly distribution and warehousing costs, more scale advantages, compared with the traditional home appliance enterprises, with product price advantage.Air conditioning, for example, the price of online and offline about 1000 yuan spread, so as to attract consumers to use more channels to purchase e-commerce.The price advantage and thus promote the development of e-commerce channels, e-commerce channels conducive to the sales channels of home appliance enterprises sink, and to achieve the three lines, Fourth-tier cities, rural areas and remote areas of the effective sales of consumer markets, we believe that with the promotion of the status of own-brand market and the promotion of home appliances to the countryside policy, the leading household appliances in China's third-tier, fourth-tier and rural areas market share There will be a rapid increase.
High cost of raw materials, leading enterprises to adjust the price control more powerful
The cost of raw materials is a major component of the cost of home appliances business.The main component of the cost of household appliances from raw materials, raw materials costs of all types of home appliance enterprises are more than 75%, of which white, kitchen electrical and black electrical industry accounted for about 90% of raw materials % From this point of view, changes in raw material prices have a significant impact on the cost of home appliances business in the white, kitchen and small appliances costs, copper, aluminum, cold-rolled steel and plastic accounted for more than half of the four types of materials The price fluctuations on the total cost of home appliances business significant impact.
Comparing the industry average, we can see that the leading enterprises can win the relatively higher gross profit margin under the same raw material cost pressure, and we think the leading enterprises have the advantage of scale and can reduce the cost by virtue of the scale bargaining advantage. At the same time, Strong downstream bargaining power, you can pass the cost pressure by direct price increases.In addition, the leading enterprise research and development ability, product replacement fast, you can iterate through the product in the form of consumption upgrade to absorb the cost pressures of rising raw material costs .
Leading enterprises have stronger anti-risk ability
Appliance companies based on their different development strategies, business models and different business development background, there is a clear difference in the distribution of business at home and abroad.Compared to 2016, the proportion of each household electrical appliance business overseas business can be seen, such as small household electrical appliance enterprises such as new Po shares and Lake Electric in the proportion of overseas operations and Joyoung shares and Flying Branch there is a huge difference in shares of the new Po nearly 90% of exports, Lake Electric also 76% share of exports, while with the small appliance industry Supor Only 30% of the export ratio.At present, the United States Group, Gree, TCL Group and other industries leading the proportion of overseas business accounted for not more than 50% .We believe that the leading domestic and foreign markets balanced development, the market share of the proportion of stable, therefore, Exchange rate changes have little effect on leading enterprises.
Home appliance leading enterprises have more complete risk hedging control system.Large enterprises can realize the exchange rate risk avoidance through futures contracts, forward contracts and other derivatives.From the data, the actual occurrence of leading enterprises in foreign exchange gains and losses accounted for the proportion of revenue does not exceed 1% .
Consumer escalation through the industry leading enterprises to lead the trend
From the consumer's own demand, the development of consumer's demand follows the objective law of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, which is a low-to-high evolutionary process from the most basic survival needs to the highest level of self-realization. With the rising level of Chinese consumers' income, the gradual increase of their spending power and the increasing awareness of consumers, the demand for product quality and quality is gradually increasing. In our opinion, the structure of household electrical appliances will change in the future. The proportion will gradually increase, brand concentration will also be improved, the advantages of leading enterprises will be further expanded.
Leading enterprises more adapt to consumer upgrade requirements
Leading enterprise products have more process innovation capability, and large enterprises are significantly stronger than small and medium-sized enterprises in product process innovation and organizational or marketing innovation 71.2% of the large enterprises have realized the innovation of products or processes, twice the realization of small enterprises The larger the firm, the more it focuses on technological innovation, while the smaller firm focuses on organizational or marketing innovations, and the number of patents owned by leading firms is much higher than that of ordinary firms. The number of patents owned by Gree Group and Midea Group is more than 20,000 each year, which is not comparable to that of the general household appliance industry. We believe that the leading enterprises pay more attention to product and process innovation activities. No matter in terms of the abundance of R & D funding and The emphasis on innovation, all have more advantages.
We are bullish on the home appliance industry, maintaining a 'good rating' for white goods, kitchen appliances and small household appliances sector, 'neutral' rating for the current highly competitive black industry, and in the field of white goods, we are optimistic about the high concentration and scale Effect of the white plate leading enterprises, especially air-conditioning with one of its multi-machine properties, in the case of saturation configuration, there are many times the volume of other home appliances configuration.In the field of kitchen appliances, high margin and in place Long-term kitchen and electrical power industry has the profitability of the period after the traversal of real estate, optimistic about higher margins, market share of room to enhance the kitchen industry leading enterprises in the field of small appliances, optimistic about the rapid growth of small household appliance industry leading companies, these Businesses will be better positioned to gain rapid growth in space-hungry markets.
Specifically, optimistic about the industry leader in white lead, it is recommended to focus Gree, Midea Group and Qingdao Haier; optimistic about the kitchen industry leader, it is recommended to pay attention to the boss appliances; optimistic about small household electrical appliance business leader, it is recommended attention Supor and Xinbao shares.