As the nation's largest PV investment company, GDD's annual gathering has become a battleground for military equipment manufacturers, the successful bid price has become the industry benchmark.
2016 2.75GW (0.8GW procurement + 1.95GW reserve) set-bidding attracted 23 component companies bidding;
In 2017, the 3.4GW (0.7GW purchase + 2.7GW reserve) bidding attracted 28 sub-contractors.
This article analyzes the bidding and bidding for the two acquisitions and the successful bidding.
First, the State Power Investment more favor monocrystalline components
As the largest power plant investment enterprise in the world, Guodian also invests in a large-scale comparative test base in Golmud and has a large amount of hands-on tests and comparative data so that it has full experience in technical route selection and product quality control Equipment requirements in the tender documents.
In these two acquisitions, the share of monocrystalline modules for bidding in 2017 and 2016 respectively reached 83% and 84%, respectively, so that enterprises that excel in single crystal technology will be dominant in the competition.
The winning conditions for 2016 and 2017 are shown in Table 1 and Table 2.
Table 1: 2016 State Power Investment 800MW procurement of photovoltaic modules won the bid
Table 2: State Grid Investment in 2017 cast 3.4GW PV module situation
The above two tables in each of the winning ratio analysis, as shown below.
By comparing Figure 1, Figure 2 can be found from 2016 to 2017:
1) The successful enterprises have been developed from 5 to 7;
2) Billion Crystal, Crystal Division, Jinzhou Sunshine three successful bidder for two years, billion crystal, crystal division doubled, while the share of sunshine Jinzhou lower;
3) Not all winning companies are the top 10 global sales companies.
At present, each production line has a high degree of automation and some even adopt full automation, therefore, relative to the brand's popularity, Guodian Tendering process pays more attention to product material selection, technical route, price, Brand, are treated equally.
Second, the large differences between the bidding prices of enterprises
2016, 2017 bid, there is a very low price quote.
The difference between the lowest bidding price and the highest bidding price in 2016 is as high as 0.16-0.85 yuan / W! The difference between the lowest bidding price and the average price basically remains at 0.2 yuan / W. The specific bidding prices are shown in Tables 1-5.
From Table 1 to Table 5 we can see: 1) the lowest price of 3.05 yuan / W, the highest price of 3.9 yuan / W. Visible, the difference between the quotations of various business components is very large.
2) The difference between the lowest and highest bidding price is as high as 0.16 ~ 0.85 yuan / W, mainly in 0.4 yuan / W!
3) The difference between the lowest bid price and the average price remained at 0.2 yuan / W.
The difference between the lowest bidding price and the highest bidding price in 2017 is relatively small, only 0.4-0.5 yuan / W; the difference between the lowest bidding price and the average price basically remains at 0.2 yuan / W. The specific bidding prices are shown in Table 6 As shown.
Table 6: Bid Opening Price Results of State Power Investment Components in 2017
As can be seen from the table above: 1) The difference between the lowest bid price and the highest bid price is as high as 0.39 to 0.48 yuan / W, mainly in 0.4 yuan / W!
3) The difference between the lowest bid price and the average price remained at 0.2 yuan / W.
Component companies voted in Guodian voted low, it should be based on two considerations:
1) winning the bidding in the largest procurement bidding, entering the purchase list of Guodian Investment also has strategic significance to the equipment enterprises;
2) The successful bidder will generally be used in the coming year. The bidding price actually predicts the market price in the coming year.
Therefore, the burst broke out in 2016 3.05 yuan / W shocking low-cost, widely circulated is said to be a senior director of Crystal Division sales of a well-known passage:
We have to be confident that we must believe in our judgment on the market and our own road, and the problems we face are temporary. Although the headshot on the battlefield is of course a headshot, it can be a hero to blow the enemy with a fist.
Our current challenge is to eat, do not care about their own eating, loss is not a loss, it is a matter of living is not good. To get the order, is not able to survive the problem.
There is no water in the desert, it was judged in front of the desert, so began to drink urine; some judge in front of the oasis, so hold back the timing may be in front of the oasis is really, then the urine to drink, it may be in front of the desert, to that You may not even have to drink urine.
Third, low-key dark horse - billion crystal photoelectric
Evergrande won 43% of the market share in the 2017 bid and took the replacement of Jinkuke to the lowest price of 2.48 yuan / W.
However, further analysis shows that the polycrystalline component with a birefringence of 2.48 yuan / W is only 220MW, but the single-crystal component is indeed 2.66 yuan / W (the lowest bid price of single-crystal component is 2.63 yuan / W). Speculated that billion crystal in the bidding process may adopt a very clever trick, single and polycrystalline ratio was 80% and 20%, so the share of less polycrystalline links with a eye-catching price, but in a high proportion The single crystal used a relatively high price.
According to the information disclosed billion billion crystal display, to bid at such a low price, personally think that may be based on four reasons:
1) Have a whole industry chain to ensure profits
Billion Crystal Optoelectronics was established in May 2003, is owned by the crystal rod drawn, polycrystalline silicon ingots, wafer cutting, battery preparation, the formation of packaging and photovoltaic systems vertical integration of photovoltaic companies.
As the various links in the PV manufacturing sector, the current high profit silicon, but relatively low component links.Therefore, with monocrystalline silicon production capacity, downstream can provide better cost-effective products; can be made in the components of a certain link Profits, to seize more monocrystalline components share.However, rely on outsourced monocrystalline silicon wafer production of battery components in the case of monocrystalline silicon prices remain high, the profit is thin, the loss of a large loss.
Billion crystal reserves P-type single-crystal pull system, N-type single-crystal pull, single crystal production multiple feeding technology, low-power thermal field technology, completed the single crystal wire rod cutting machine equipment upgrades, launched a 8.5-inch upgrade 9 inch single crystal silicon rod drawing work.
Figure 3: The advantages of the upstream billion crystal can allow part of the profits to the downstream
Wafer cutting, the billion crystal has been equipped with the technological capabilities of the successful diamond wire monocrystalline silicon, the completion of the diamond wire slicing machine and mortar online recovery system upgrades, is expected to be completed by the end of 2017 polycrystalline diamond wire cutting capacity upgrade, To maintain the competitive advantage of cost.
2) new production line, low product cost
The technology iteration of the PV industry in 2017 is described in detail in "Serialized Technology as the King - Imitation of a New Technology Imitation (2) Crazy in the PV Industry." Equipment companies are experiencing backward production capacity to speed up their phase-out and high-efficiency photovoltaic products are favored by the market. Among them, PERC technology is the main representative of high-efficiency battery mass production technology.It is understood that as of the end of July 2017, Emerald PERC high-efficiency battery production line has 700MW production capacity is expected to reach 1.2GW in 2018 efficient battery production capacity.
It is understood that the current production capacity of monocrystalline crystal billion PVC 21.4 ~ 21.8% efficiency, 60 components can provide 295 ~ 310W output power, with the new technology single-sided components power up to 320W (60); Crystal PERC efficiency of 19.7 ~ 20.3%, 60 components can provide 275 ~ 290W output power. Double-sided double-glass components, billion crystal P-type PERC double-sided double-glass components 60 units total power of 330W or more, 72 Specifications up to 400W or more.
3) focus on large customer business strategy
According to a publicity material billion crystal, billion crystal purchased in the central enterprises higher share of photovoltaic modules as of 2015, billion crystal in several market share of central enterprises as follows.
4) Based on the 2018 market judgments
In 2017, the installed capacity of PV in the whole country exceeded 50GW, some expected to reach 54GW, an increase of nearly 20GW compared with 2016. Thanks to the rise of the market, PV modules will be in short supply in 2017. However, in large-scale expansion of major enterprises In the circumstances, will the 2018 market still maintain such a high growth rate?
Just as before, Crystal Division judged the future stage of the market slump and reported a low price. It should also have its basic judgment that the market growth in 2018 is not as rapid as the expansion.
According to the report, Yijing less than 2GW shipments a year with the State Power Investment 1.4GW orders, coupled with the successful bidder in Guangdong Power. Can be judged, no matter what the 2018 market conditions, Yijing should have a Better market sales.
