High-density battery technology breakthrough is the next round of energy revolution, the date of success.Electric car will not end fossil energy era, the widespread use of high-density energy storage battery will allow fossil energy to withdraw from the stage of history.
What is the number one news in the field of energy in 2017? I think a number of countries have successively announced that they will stop selling their ICE vehicles around 2040. In July 2017, the French government announced the ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles in France after 2040. A week later, the British government Made a similar announcement. Sweden, Denmark, Norway and other leading countries in the field of renewable energy announced earlier more aggressive gasoline and diesel car sales plan. Let the world attention is that the Chinese government subsequently announced it was studying the ban Diesel car schedule.
Tesla, which manufactures only pure electric vehicles, has an annual output of about 80,000 units before its production of Model 3, but its market capitalization surpassed that of the 100-year auto giants GM and Ford, and GM and Ford in July 2017 Production is tens or even hundred times Tesla.However, investors believe that electric vehicles represent the future.Volvo car company recently announced in 2019 after the company released a new car will be pure electricity or hybrid oil and gas, The most aggressive in the world's auto giants. "We saw in 2017 that almost all the major car manufacturers in the world were 'electrocuted', the most powerful German auto industry, and the 'electric shock' in the second half of 2017 On the issue of "enterprising" up.
It is the advent of internal combustion engines that brought human civilization into the 'oil age,' just as the advent of steam engines created the 'coal age.' What will a new era be brought by electric vehicles, networks and artificial intelligence? Today I am still not capable of answering, but I know very well that energy transformation is inevitable because people are always pursuing secure, easier, cleaner and affordable energy.
High-carbon energy has no future
Energy Conversion From firewood biomass to coal, from coal to oil and then to natural gas, fossil fuels are still the mainstay of the world energy mix, accounting for as much as 83% (28% for coal, 15% for oil), although renewable energy has grown rapidly in the past decade 31% and 24% of natural gas). In China, the proportion of fossil fuels is 86% (62% for coal, 18% for oil and 6% for natural gas) And the incremental and total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation ranks first in the world. The proportion of new energy in the energy structure is also rapidly increasing.
On the road to energy transformation, the OECD countries have two distinctly different stages of development since the industrial revolution: 1. Fossil energy sources The most obvious change in the proportion of coal, oil and gas in the last half-century is the substitution of coal by gas; Renewable energy is growing faster than fossil fuels, and new energy consumption needs are met more with renewable energy.
From cities to countries to the world, with the continuous progress of human civilization, we are aware of energy saving and emission reduction, energy transformation is the cause of all mankind and must work together to achieve.One obvious path of energy transformation is from high carbon to low carbon and then To carbon-free coal and oil are high-carbon energy, which is determined by the physical and chemical properties of coal and petroleum.In the fossil energy, natural gas chemical molecular structure of carbon content is the lowest, both theoretical and experimental results show that, Natural gas, as fuel for energy, emits only half of carbon and 70% of oil, so the starting point for global energy transformation since the Industrial Revolution all began with a reduction in coal consumption, so in Britain, in Europe, in the United States, in China Energy transformation also started with the clean use of coal and the reduction of coal use.
Since the Industrial Revolution, coal was the easiest source of energy and fuels, and almost all of its main energy sources were coal at the start-up and development phase of industrialization. In the 40 years of China's reform and opening up, the rapid economic development was also supported by coal. Coal China is still the main energy source and the coal industry contributes immensely to China's economic development. India has entered a take-off period of economic development and coal is also an indispensable 'main energy source' in the process of India's modernization. Has entered a 'primary stage' of energy conversion that is consciously 'substituting coal for electricity and electricity by electricity', while India is still increasing its coal consumption.
China's coal consumption peaked in 2013 and reached a peak in 2013. China's peak in coal consumption is a "big event" in global energy transformation and attracts worldwide attention. China is the world's largest energy consumer and China produces and consumes about half of the world's coal, so China is As the world's largest emitter, it emits nearly 30% of the world's carbon dioxide. China is an active participant in the Paris agreement and a responsible large country that firmly implements the agreement. According to the documents issued by the Chinese government in recent months, the Chinese government is developing clean energy Renewable energy is determined and firm in its measures, despite voices of domestic doubt to reduce the rationality and feasibility of coal consumption.
From the history of energy transformation in major developed countries such as Britain, Europe and the United States, the end of the coal era will have a long way to go and even some countries will have some repetitions. In the 1970s, the British government under Thatcher Great determination, the use of a strong coercive means to close the coal mines to reduce coal consumption, until 40 years later, the United Kingdom completed the closure of all coal mines.The clean energy policy of the Obama administration in the United States by President Trump Questioned and challenged, the Trump administration withdrew from the Paris agreement and declared that 'he (Trump) was speaking in Pittsburgh instead of Paris.' Trump's attitude towards the coal industry was hindered by some coal-producing areas in the United States and related industries However, as far as the energy experts and market analysts I came across, they did not think the coal industry could regain its glory. The U.S. shale gas revolution made the United States the world's largest producer of natural gas. The United States has changed from Natural gas importers have become big LNG exporters. From an economic point of view, coal has lost its competitiveness with natural gas.
In the "13th Five-Year" Energy Development Plan released by China's National Energy Administration, natural gas is positioned as the main energy in the process of transformation. Based on the resource endowments and stages of development, the price of natural gas in China is equivalent to the calorific value of coal 3 times to 4 times the increase in China's natural gas consumption has been constrained by the economy with strong social governance with Chinese characteristics, the ability of government control is a favorable factor in China's energy restructuring process, the people desire to alleviate the haze to pursue a good living environment is to speed up China The fundamental and strongest impetus for energy transformation.China's current second largest economic entity, the enormous progress and potential of technology, the globalization and the grand pattern of the 'One Belt One Road Initiative' are all imperative and inevitable for China's energy transformation Irreversible important driving force.High-carbon energy to low-carbon and carbon-free energy transition is an irreversible trend in the world, but also the only way for the development of China's energy industry, entrepreneurs in the planning of their own business development strategy should remember a say Hundred years of famous saying: 'The world trend, vastly coveted, along Chang, the inverse of death', there is no future for high-carbon energy.
From low-density energy to high-density energy
Another trajectory of energy transformation is the transition from low-density energy to high-density energy. From wood-fired biomass to coal to oil-gas to nuclear energy, the gradual increase of energy and fuel density is easy to understand, which is the same weight or volume Energy fuels can release higher calorific value. The main driving force behind the transition from low density to high density is technological advancement, and the process of transition from low-density energy sources to high-density energy sources is significantly disrupted due to the uncertainties and incompleteness of technological advances And turning point, unlike high carbon to low carbon to carbon-free transition so continuous and obvious.
The biggest obstacle to the development of fission-type nuclear power plants I think the cost of disposal, mainly after a major accident, is too high and the impact on the accident area is very long. The negative impact of the Muli Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents on the development of fission-type nuclear power Is huge, and the more late-coming accidents have a greater impact on the industry.An important reason for the formation of Germany's national strategy of decaying is that in case the cost of disposal after an accident may be higher than that of nuclear power itself Interests, the current nuclear power technology is still unable to eliminate an accident, energy development strategy can not be placed on the premise of non-occurrence of nuclear accidents, this is a logical choice, even if the probability of an accident is one ten thousandth.
In order to eliminate this one-thousandth risk, the cost of construction of fission-generated nuclear power has become more and more high, and economy has become another negative factor in the choice of nuclear power. People are still struggling in the field of nuclear energy technology and are still pursuing achievable When technology breakthroughs in higher energy densities and controlled thermonuclear fusion technology are commercially available, perhaps the day humankind gains energy is liberating.
For each country, the process of energy transformation is closely related to the national resource endowment, the stage of development of industrial economy and the stage of development of social civilization. In the light of the energy structure and In a nutshell, China is still in the energy coal era, but it is gratifying that it has reached its peak. The United States is still in its energy era and its oil consumption has entered a "peak period." Europe has taken the world energy transformation In the past, alternative energy sources for fossil fuels by renewables have entered an accelerated phase of development, and natural gas consumption appears to have entered a "peak period."
Wind energy Solar-based renewable energy has entered an accelerated phase of development, and their obvious features are discontinuities and low density. The development of wind solar energy does not seem to be in line with the previous "law of low-density to high-density" energy transformation and why energy transformation The law of 'break' and 'reentry' here? Or is the 'low-density to high-density transition' rule simply does not exist, is my tendency for energy transformation, 'misreading'? After thinking twice, I still think The law of transition from low density to high density exists. The reason for the emergence of 'fracture' and 'reentry' lies in the 'technical breakthrough lags behind'.
Naturally, nuclear fuel deposits are of very low grade, and nuclear fuel has become the most energy-dense fuel ever after the very high-tech enrichment process of exploration and screening.Diesel fuel is the most dense energy fuel used by internal combustion engines and is also complicated The exploration and exploitation of petroleum products in the smelting process is artificially high-tech 'processing' that gives diesel 'high energy'.
Wind energy Solar energy is now considered as a "discontinuous low-density" energy source, and I think the most important reason is not enough for its "artificial processing and refining", which means that the energy storage technology breaks through a serious "lag." If the battery energy storage Technology has a major breakthrough, when the battery energy storage can be used on a large scale, the wind solar energy will become a 'stable continuous' power source.With the unit weight of the battery stored more power density is higher, the use of electricity The more general the more convenient.
Imagine, when the energy storage capacity per unit weight of storage battery increased 4 times, now a ton of car battery can be reduced to about 250 kg, coupled with the motor and other drives, the entire electric vehicle power system weight and reality Of the internal combustion engine vehicle powertrain weight roughly the same size of the battery to reduce the mass and reduce the mass, its charge and discharge efficiency and efficiency will certainly doubled, the replacement rate of electric vehicles for internal combustion engines will be rapidly increased.I believe that high-density storage When the battery technology breakthrough is the next round of energy revolution, the success of the day.Electric car will not end fossil energy era, the widespread use of high-density energy storage batteries will allow fossil energy to exit the stage of history.
Big oil giant turned around
In the context of irreversible energy transformation, the traditional oil companies are seeking a breakthrough method and the survival of the road, the transformation of the Shell Oil Company over the past few years the road is very remarkable, this year it completed the British BG Mergers and acquisitions completed the transition from upstream and downstream oil companies to upstream and downstream integrated natural gas companies, although the top five multinational oil companies, including Exxon Mobil Corporation, began to adjust their oil and gas assets and oil and gas ten years ago Business ratio, it is estimated that by the end of 2017, the output of natural gas of the five major multinational oil companies will exceed the output of their crude oil. However, only Shell Oil and Gas Company, the integrated upstream and downstream transformation of natural gas, has the strongest strategy and the most rapid operation.
On October 13, Shell announced the acquisition of NewMotion, Europe's largest electric car charging company, which operates more than 30,000 private charging posts in the Netherlands, Germany, France and the United Kingdom to provide electric car charging services to homes and businesses and to Europe 25 With more than 100,000 registered charging cards, the state provides access to a network of public charging piles, through which Shell has one of the largest EV charging service companies in Europe.
Sainad Lynch, chairman of Shell UK, explained in a paper the strategic considerations Shell has entered into car charging services: "Mosaic" of transportation fuels is an inevitable choice for a low-carbon society where petrol, diesel, LNG, pure electricity, The reasons behind the diversification of fuel in the transportation sector are the megatrends of low-carbon emission reduction, with a quarter of total emissions in the United Kingdom, emissions from vehicles and electric vehicles Play an important role.
In April 2016, the Shell Group formed the New Energy Business Unit, and whether Shell will expand its car charging business through its network of gas stations around the world is a strategic move that warrants close attention.
In the past, we often say that oil has the triple attributes of resources, finance and politics, and coal and natural gas have more or less the same triple attributes, while the goal of the Paris Accord to save the Earth is given the 'moral' character of energy. Beyond the traditional category of resource endowments and economic development. How important it is for China today to emphasize in the global energy transformation is not over-emphasized. President Xi Jinping proposed the strategy of "four revolutions and one cooperation" for energy development in our country and is guiding China takes on the responsibility entrusted by history in the world energy transformation.
Chinese petroleum central enterprises also play an extremely important role in the energy transformation, and the transformation strategy and practice of Shell oil companies in the past few years deserve our serious study and learning. The time for energy transformation to traditional oil companies is running out. What they used to compete in the past was doing Strong and big, and today they are competing for their transition and survival.