Co-organized by Zhejiang Commodity Futures Co., Ltd., the "9th Zhesu Summit Forum 2017" supported by Dashang was held in Huzhou from December 8 to December 9. Participants discussed the supply and demand and price trends in the plastics market.
Zheshi Hua, deputy director and chief economist of Zheshang Securities Research Institute, introduced that the global economy will pick up in 2017, the export demand will increase and the export trade will be better. From January to October, China exported 9.516 million tons of plastic products, up 12.4% The demand for plastic raw materials.
Talking about the plastic market price trend this year, participating market participants said that in the first half of the domestic plastic market in 2017, the main tone is down mainly in the second half rose mainly due to the downstream factories and manufacturers in the fourth quarter of last year, the price of plastic Expected to be too optimistic, resulting in a sharp rise in inventories of plastic products, making this season is the first half of this year there is a phenomenon of weak demand, which led to plastic prices continue to shift the focus.In the second half, the domestic ban on the import of waste plastics continued fermentation, As a result, the downstream factories and manufacturers once again predicted the price will rise with the arrival of the processing peak season, causing prices to rise to high levels in July and August.
In the past two years, the supply-side reform has supported the strong rise in the prices of related commodities, but market participants believe that this impact will gradually disappear in 2018. According to the source, there is a large probability of a moderate global economic growth and a mild inflation in 2018, At the same time, the monetary policy of the central banks of the world's major economies will gradually turn to (contraction) .In this context, the global commodity market will maintain the high probability of oscillation. In the absence of directional guidance of other commodities, the domestic plastics market in 2018 With its own supply and demand logic out of the price curve.
Zhan Shihua view, the future factors that affect the plastic price movements are mainly four points: First, the strengthening of financial supervision, supervision of environmental protection carried out, small and medium-sized plastic enterprises are facing a severe test, while the large plastic enterprises is New opportunities for development; Second, the supply side of the narrowing of production, resulting in tight supply, or plastic prices will have more room for growth; Third, the RMB exchange rate trend also directly affects the profitability of plastics companies; Fourth, the bulk of raw materials products Prices started to pick up, crude oil prices showed a trend of rising slowly.
Zhang Xinya, deputy general manager of Donghua Energy Co., Ltd. believes that under the background of relatively stable domestic macroeconomic policies and weak new policies, the macro sector has a relatively limited impact on the plastics industry, and crude oil prices are expected to remain at 55-65 in 2018 USD / barrel, PP relatively limited range of change, oscillation between the import and export window, plastic prices will stabilize.
Huang Quanming, president of Zhejiang Plastic City Online Trading Market, said at the meeting that at this stage, the rebate ban will have an impact on the plastic price of next year, and under the circumstances that the growth of future demand is not obvious, the enforcement of environmental protection will have an impact on the plastic price Have a greater impact.