Expansion and off-season impact, 2018 Q1 NAND Flash industry oversupply will lead to lower prices

According to the research conducted by the Semiconductor Research Center of the State Semiconductor Corporation, the demand side will face the impact of the traditional off-season in the first quarter of 2018 and the demand for smart phone devices including tablets, laptops and Chinese brands will be lower than the fourth quarter of 2017 Fell more than 15% while server demand was relatively flat, with overall bit demand dropping by 0-5% from the fourth quarter of 2017. On the other hand, NAND Flash suppliers continued to improve the capacity and yield of 3D-NAND Flash , Bit output growth also higher than the fourth quarter higher than 5%, expected NAND Flash market will enter the oversupply situation, the first quarter of 2018 SSD, NANDFlash particles and wafer contract prices will flip down.

Looking back to the first half of 2017, the loss of production capacity due to the switchover of 2D-NAND to 3D-NAND in the supply side in the first half of the year, coupled with the strong demand for stocking by Chinese handset manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO and vivo, exacerbated the NAND Flash stock situation including eMMC / UFS, Client SSD and Enterprise SSD have at least 10% price increase.With the second quarter, although the number of working days recovery, prompting demand for notebook computers and tablet PCs and other devices increased over the previous quarter, but the Chinese brand of mobile phones Performance was worse than expected, so the price increase slowed down from the previous season.

Observing the changes in the NAND Flash market in the second half of 2017, the overall supply gap further widened in the third quarter, driven by the listing of new machines on the tenth anniversary of Apple and the server double-headed wagon. However, after several seasonally-adjusted prices, various OEMs have arrived at OEMs The ceiling the factory can accept, resulting in price increases space is limited.In the fourth quarter, the server needs a little brakes under the influence of the remaining demand for Apple's kinetic energy is more significant, and Toshiba Wafer scrapping is not as good as the rumor, plus 3D-NAND expansion pace has not stopped, resulting in a more balanced supply and demand of the market, the overall contract price to open or small out.

DRAMeXchange pointed out that as the NAND Flash market re-enters the oversupply market in the first quarter of 2018 and makes terminal product adjustments lower, the willingness of major OEMs to adopt newer technologies such as UFS and PCIe SSDs will increase As the traditional peak season arrives, NAND Flash will have the opportunity to switch to a tight market. In the second half of 2018, it will show different market trends.

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