'The enemy has 30 seconds to reach the battlefield and crush them!' The online game "League of Legends," a classic opening speech, precisely with the car industry under the current dual credit policy atmosphere is appropriate from 2019 onwards, the Chinese car prices , Regardless of their own brand or joint venture brand, will accept the test of double integration.The time left to them, only two years.
In September of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the highly anticipated "Passenger Vehicle Enterprise's Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points Parallel Administrative Measures" (that is, the "double integral" policy) was promulgated and will be formally announced on April 1, 2018 Implementation.
This approach stipulates the average fuel consumption points and new energy car points accounting methods of passenger car enterprises in China, and clarifies the accounting methods of actual value, standard value and target value related to integral calculation, among which, Let the car prices were felt that the provisions of the traditional energy passenger car annual production or import volume reached 30,000 or more car prices set a new energy car points ratio requirements, 2019, 2020 new energy car points The proportion of requirements were 10%, 12% .Consuits less than the requirements of the car prices will be fined, or even cancel the production qualification.
Own brand: 撸 起起套 加油 干
After the double integral policy is formally introduced, the industry generally believes that the domestic independent car brands will usher in the best opportunities for development.
This is because, starting from 2014, the state has promulgated a series of policies to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry in terms of subsidy standards, catalogs for promotion of models, tax incentives, technological innovation, traffic privileges, construction of charging facilities, etc. At this juncture, the traditional Auto brands have been lagging behind in the field of self-owned brands to see the corner overtaking hope, so layout of new energy vehicles, there have been BYD, Chery new energy, Beiqi new energy, know beans, Wei to cars, Xiaopeng cars A large number of local new energy car brand.
A data show that own brands now account for more than 90% of the domestic market of new energy vehicles.As of the end of September, China has produced a total of 274,000 new energy vehicles in 2017. BYD, Zhidou Automobile, Beiqi New Energy, Chery New Energy and other independent enterprises in the new energy car sales continued to lead the list.
Another set of data shows that at present only BYD Auto, Beijing Automotive, Geely Automobile, SAIC Passenger Car, Zhongtai Automobile, JAC and Chery Automobile a total of seven car prices to meet the integral requirements, all for the own brand car prices.
Owing to the earlier layout of its own-brand car makers, it has established a strong market position in the field of new energy vehicles and also laid a firm foundation for it to take the initiative after its formal implementation of the double-point policy.
It is reported that China's autonomous vehicles such as Beiqi New Energy, Chery New Energy, Great Wall Motor and Chongqing Lifan are about to debut at the '2017 China New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Summit' held in Qingyuan, Guangdong on December 23-25 this year. Enterprises will be fully unveiled.At that time, there will be more interpretation of independent brands under the double integral policy.
Joint Venture Brand: How many seconds to reach the battlefield?
The introduction of the double integral policy, to a certain extent, is beneficial to the independent brand of the layout of new energy vehicles earlier.However, the first-mover advantage of own-brand is not as big as imagined.
At present, the domestic joint ventures such as SAIC-Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, Changan Ford, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Citroen, Dongfeng Honda and Guangzhou Automobile Honda generally have profound background of foreign investment in terms of technology accumulation, market channels and capital scale Far less than its own brand, the future to catch up with even more than its own brand is also very likely thing.
For a long time, due to its natural advantages in traditional automobiles, the joint venture Cheqi has been slow to develop its enthusiasm in the field of new energy vehicles. However, a piece of paper on the dual-credit policy woke up the joint venture Cheqi and began to value China New energy vehicle market, accelerating catch up.
Since the second half of this year, in order to cope with the double-point policy, foreign car makers have stepped up their efforts in the new energy field and triggered a new round of joint-venture tide. First, Volkswagen signed a joint venture agreement with JAC to form a joint venture of new energy vehicles Then Ford signed a cooperation memorandum with Zotye to discuss the establishment of a pure electric passenger car joint venture. Reno Nissan and Dongfeng announced a few days later that they would set up a new joint venture, Easy Jet New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd.
In addition, the major car companies also announced plans for new energy vehicles in China.Volkswagend will be based on existing models by 2019 to launch new energy models, by 2020 sales of about 400,000 new energy vehicles in China by 2025 will be in China to Sell 1.5 Million New Energy Vehicles Ford Motor Co. to Launch Plug-in Hybrid Diesel Energi in China in the First Half of 2018 Ford Motor Company to Launch a Pure Electric SUV in China in the Next Five Years By 2025 Ford 70% of the products sold by the brand in China will be traditional hybrid, plug-in hybrid or pure electric vehicles. GM will produce a pure electric vehicle in China within two years. By 2020, General Motors plans to launch 10 electric and hybrid electric vehicles in China Hybrid Electric Vehicles It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles under Cadillac, Buick and Chevrolet brands in China totals or will reach 150,000 units by the year of 2025, or 500,000 units by 2025.
See the chapter before and after 2019
Recently, according to the result of integral calculation, China Merchants Securities classified the domestic 13 large automobile groups into four levels (based on the 2017 double integral calculation only).
In accordance with the status quo of the double integration of 13 major groups
According to China Merchants Securities, CAFC (Fuel Consumption Score) calculation results show that the joint ventures have more advantages in fuel-efficient vehicles, CAFC points are more advantageous and NEV (new energy points) points are the opposite. Since the development of independent brands of electric The automobile has the first mover advantage and the NEV integral ratio is higher, but in the double integral method, the positive NEV integral can offset the negative CAFC negative integral, so it is advantageous to the enterprise with the superior NEV integral.
However, a veteran insider said even though its own brand has a first-mover advantage because of its layout, the window period is only two years away because many multinational brands and joint-venture brand new energy vehicles will be by the end of 2018 One after another into the Chinese market.
In addition, as the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles gradually begins to decline, car prices that are subsidized solely by subsidies from 2019 will be phased out and the truly powerful car prices will be retained.
The double points policy stipulates that the proportion of new energy car points in 2019 and 2020 will be 10% and 12% respectively, so the time for independent brands and joint venture brands to come true will be around 2019. Weak self will be a result.