Recent domestic polypropylene market prices vary, it is not difficult to see the lack of a clear direction in the market under the guidance of the futures market in the face of the growing impact of plastic futures, of course, can not do without the impact of fundamentals of supply and demand in the second half of this year Polypropylene market, like last year did not continue to rise, gold nine silver ten nor flourishing, after the winter plastic market is gradually into the dull, then, in the last month of 2017, how the performance of polypropylene market will be able to break the ice?
November domestic polypropylene market ups and downs
From the above table analysis, the domestic polypropylene market in November most of the raw material prices, of which the largest increase is injection, followed by fiber and drawing this month, domestic PP market Xianyanhouyang prices fluctuated the main, but the end of the market turn weak.
According to the statistics of the PP PPI for the plastics and plastics industry, the PP index for the period November 30 (Thursday) was 97.93 points, down by 4.14% against the highest point of 102.16 points (2017-09-06) in the cycle and 82.02 points from the lowest level in 2017 The spot (May 12) rose 19.40%. (Note: the cycle refers to 2017-01-01 so far)
▲ factors affecting the international crude oil futures
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) - January WTI crude oil futures for January delivery closed up 0.17% at 57.40 U.S.dollars / barrel as of Thursday. Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.73% , At 63.57 US dollars / barrel.Opec and Russia, including 10 non-OPEC oil producers agreed to continue to cut production for nine months, the cut agreement extended to 2018 by the end of the year, analysts believe that this decision will directly affect the future of international crude oil The balance between supply and demand and the price trend will also put a protracted war on the price clash of crude oil between OPEC and shale oil producing countries.
▲ factors affecting the futures
In November, the main contract of 1801 PP fluctuated with an overall increase of RMB187 / tonne, up by 2.15% .In the beginning of this month, the international oil price rose continuously and PP1801 contract up to RMB9,346 / tonne, then gradually declined until the end of big diving dropped to the lowest 8652 yuan / ton. At present, PP main contract has been transferred from 1801 to 1805.
▲ factors affecting the supply side
In November, the domestic polypropylene plant overhaul loss was about 186,000 tons, down 62,600 tons from 24,860 tons in October, dropping by 25.18% .With the pre-stop overhaul and maintenance of vehicles, and Shenhua Coal Phase II, Yuntian The new units in Qinghai Salt Lake put into production one after another and further aggravate the pressure on the market supply. The concentrated release of production capacity will be concentrated in December. On the whole, the supply of goods in the market will gradually increase and under the premise of no significant change in demand in the short term, Market supply and demand will gradually aggravate.
▲ Influencing factors of downstream demand
In November, the operating rates of major downstream downstream enterprises in China declined slightly, and the overall operating rate is currently around 58%, of which the operating rate of the plastic-braiding industry is 63%, the operating rate of BOPP is 63% and the rate of start-up of copolymerization is 49%. Check the impact of some plastics companies are facing production cuts, limited production, part of the business down load production, coupled with the high prices of raw materials to restrict the manufacturer stocking will, to a certain extent, curb the downstream demand.
▲ outlook forecast
Overall, the market supply is gradually increasing, short-term demand will not change significantly under the premise of the market supply and demand will gradually aggravate the conflict, but because of petrochemical stocks are not high, the market price in the short term is unlikely to have a substantial rise and fall is expected in December domestic PP market conditions continue the weak pattern, does not rule out the short-term upside futures market boosted the spot trend, but the decline is expected to rise higher than.