In terms of supply, some provinces and municipalities, due to smog management, demanded that petrochemical enterprises reduce their supply to some extent so as to reduce global excess inventory, but may also withdraw from the agreement ahead of time if the market is overheated. Suppression.At present, petrochemical stocks are low, demand is in the small off season in the high season.So, the plastic or the interval structure state.Entered in the first quarter, the purchasing season approaching, then, the seasonal rebound is expected to form.
Interval oscillation is not damaged December is still off-season, but when there is support for low, to prepare for the rebound in the season.
Market performance
This week, plastic futures are still in range (9215-9940), despite some broken bits, technically, the low support should be strong.At present, the agricultural film season ended, while the spring production season has not yet come.Therefore, the market will find The bottom of the operation.
Today, the main 1805 plastic contract closed at 9390 yuan, a weekly decline of 385 yuan.
Influencing factors and analysis
This week, plastic futures plunged, which is related to the downturn of plastic consumption on the one hand, on the other hand, market rumors that more new production capacity was postponed until next year and it is estimated that there will be more output due to the heavy volume of output next year. Is temporary and emotional.
Spot, the petrochemical 7042 factory price slightly down Qilu Petrochemical North reported 9850 yuan, Yangtze Petrochemical East reported 9800 yuan, Guangzhou Petrochemical South China News 10100, Lanzhou Petrochemical Southwest News 9850. Visible spot more premium 1805 contract at 9300 yuan Under the continued decline in the space is limited.
On the supply side, some provinces and municipalities, due to smog control, demanded that petrochemical enterprises produce peak output, thereby reducing their supply. In addition, petrochemical stocks were at a low level. As of November 22, petrochemical stocks fell to 590,000 tons.
Demand, the current peak season of plastic sheeting consumer, the market into the off-season. Winter procurement and stocking has not yet appeared, or until January before then, consumption again into the consumer season.
US crude oil, the recent stagnation in the 60 mark, and was ABC adjusted.
At last year's annual meeting, OPEC and Russia unanimously agreed to extend the production cut due in March to end 2018 to eliminate global surplus inventories, but may also withdraw early if the market is overheated.
In the short term, Lidoo will do its best to meet the needs of crude oil adjustment. At the same time, it will also have a seasonal off-season.
Long term, with the effect of limited production, coupled with the peak season of winter consumption, crude oil will maintain its upward trend until around March next year.
For plastic, rising oil prices will increase the cost of plastic production.
Conclusion and strategy
Near Christmas, the United States has the habit of clearing the library. The weak external disk to suppress the internal disk. At present, petrochemical stocks are low, the demand is in the small season in the off-season. So, the plastic or the interval state. Into the first quarter, the procurement The peak season approaching, then, a seasonal rally is expected to form.