According to MiningWeekly, global EVs have risen above all expectations since the beginning of 2017, making the 'energy metals' needed for power batteries, including minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, a rare investment opportunity.
Since the beginning of this year, the world's lithium-ion battery production hit a record high, adding 153GWh (153 million kWh) of new capacity this year alone, bringing the total capacity to 372GWh.
However, Simon Moores, founder and manager of London-based Mineral Intelligence Agency (BMI), said global demand for lithium-ion batteries will reach 750 GWh by 2025, of which 645 GWh for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. Therefore, lithium-ion battery supply will also be in short supply to meet the needs of the need to build a super battery factory, which is the basis for the development of new energy vehicles.
Mull has long been concerned with the 'energy metal storms' until key battery metals prices soar, saying that in the future, the trend toward lithium-ion batteries will dominate the global lithium market while China's demand will lead the world with its hard-rock lithium Mining construction will be effective in 1 to 3 years.Which stands in contrast, the western electric car manufacturing relatively late.He pointed out that the question is whether more car manufacturers will follow the China Great Wall Motor Company to invest in Pilbara Minerals Companies like Pilbara Minerals are involved in the upstream mining industry.
In September Great Wall Motors announced a 3.5% stake in Pilbara Mining Corp, an Australian lithium miner, in a move to secure the supply of lithium batteries.
According to Moores, the development of electric vehicles is a once-in-a-century opportunity that all the major car manufacturers had to produce their own electric cars by the 2020s.
Battery demand is strong
In order to meet the demand for the development of electric vehicles, Moore predicted that lithium investment in the lithium mining industry will need to increase from the current 1.2 billion U.S. dollars to 9 billion U.S. dollars in 2022. As of now, the lithium supply chain can not meet the demand in 2025.
According to the first-hand information mastered by Mules, there are currently 24 lithium-ion battery factories that have been announced, with varying degrees of progress.
Chris Berry, founder of New York-based House Mountain Partners, believes that Tesla's announcement in 2014 that building the world's largest mega-plant is an 'explosive' event for the lithium industry. "2025 Year, the global new 500GWh lithium battery production capacity easily, the total capacity will be 6 times the current capacity.This is the reason many market analysts to improve the lithium market demand.Not long ago, if the global demand for lithium carbonate is predicted to reach 40 million tons by 2025 It may arouse widespread suspicion, but now with the giant factory building this figure has been a bit low.
Berry believes the downstream vendors' moves make it clear that there will be strong demand for lithium-ion batteries, with Volkswagen, for example, announcing it will become the world's largest electric car leader by 2025, investing 34 billion euros for this. The plan, which was twice as long as the plan it announced two months ago.
In addition, China's Ningde Times New Energy Technologies, one of the world's largest battery makers, plans to raise $ 2 billion in capital for expansion, which Berry said means that the company will seek long-term supply.
Berry noted that the fourth industrial revolution, represented by new energy, information technology and biotechnology, relies heavily on the security of upstream materials supply, the sound downstream processing industry and the complete intellectual capital to produce millions of highly customized Of course, consumer demand first, as more models enter the market, electric vehicles will be more and more accepted, lithium-ion battery giant factory will become part of the entire supply chain. The demand has been clear, only But the question is exactly what is the demand in 10 years, 600,000 tons? 800,000 tons? Or 100 million tons. Berry is expected to demand about 700,000 tons, but the forecast is indeed more difficult. Now the question is how to short Time to find more battery-level lithium projects.
supply
Berry believes that the future of market financing will come more from strategic investors and market integration.In order to meet the demand growth, large projects do not necessarily require too many companies to invest, OEMs will eventually be clear, which will seek raw material supply Security.
Berry's data show so far that the Lithium Project has financed or promised to invest 1.4 billion U.S. dollars, and he believes it has been extremely successful for a less marketable metal, but that situation is still up for gratification Need to accelerate.Berry believes that the supply of lithium market is still tight in 2020, lithium carbonate long-term market price of 11,000 USdollars / ton.Although the battery technology is changing rapidly, but lithium-ion battery shortage is unlikely to be replaced.However, In the future, the price of lithium-ion battery will decline at a rate of 8% ~ 12%, but its energy density will increase at a rate of 5% year-on-year In the long run, as downstream strategic investors like Ganfeng Lithium seek long-term supply and establishment The supply chain itself, the battery market itself will gradually come to balance, but from now until 2019, the lithium market is still tight.
Joe Lowry, a lithium market analyst, believes the monopoly of the lithium market will cease to exist.
Although Berry does not think there is a bubble in the lithium market, he cautions that the number of publicly traded lithium mining companies is too large and there is a bubble.
In the 'Lithium Triangle' region, Argentina is vigorously developing lithium mines driven by President Mark Conti, and disputes between Chilean Chemical and Chemical Minerals Company (SQM) and the Economic Development Board (CORFO) are under negotiation. According to the mine, Western Australia still holds the dominant position. The expansion of Greenbushes project has been completed and two new producers will join the competition in 2018.
SQM, Albemarle and Tianqi Lithium are expanding their production as Galaxy Resources and Neometals expand their operations in Pilbara, Australia as other expansion projects are scheduled to open in the near future, including Alto Altura Mining and Nemaska Lithium, while Lithium Americas is investing heavily in the construction of its Cauchari-Oregon facility in the province of Jujuy in Argentina, Olaroz project first phase of the project.
Cobalt difficulties
Another key lithium battery is cobalt, which is crucial to increasing the energy density of the battery, which has risen 150% in the past year, the main reason for price increases being the largest cobalt producer in the world - The political situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo is precarious and some copper mines are closed, while cobalt is a by-product of these copper mines.
Cobalt 27, which currently holds 2,200 tonnes of cobalt metal, is neither an exploration company nor a mining company, providing direct cobalt metal opportunity to institutions or individuals, thus avoiding the risk of exploration and development. "Company CEO Anthony Rice According to Anthony Milewski, cobalt was the first of a series of energy prices due to the shortage of cobalt supply, which was optimistic about the electric car market a few years ago. It is optimistic about market investment opportunities. In June, the company in Toronto Risk stock market, the successful financing of 200 million Canadian dollars, the largest IPO since 2012. Mulluski said the market is waiting for India's economic take-off to drive a new round of product prosperity, but no one saw the electric The rise of the car market has brought the next round of super-cycle.
However, the supply can not keep up with the rapid growth of demand.
Moores of BMI said that anode material suppliers are purchasing materials three to five times more than before, which is unbelievable for the traditional industries, suppliers are under increasing pressure to cope with the Democratic Republic of Congo Political instability, on the other hand, should deal with a shortage of other materials, such as acid.
The current and potential demand for batteries from electric vehicles continues to surpass even the forecasts of the industry before and even a year ago.With the mass, Ford / GM and Toyota and other auto manufacturers formally develop lithium-ion battery-powered electric vehicle production plan, the industry Increasingly believe that cobalt demand will increase substantially.
According to Moores, significant changes must take place in the supply of cobalt to meet the demand for electric vehicles in 2022. In addition to chemical technology, there is a need for a substantial increase in cobalt resources.
Berry agreed, noting that cobalt prices will not fall sharply, and despite the fact that Glencore and Eurasian Resources Group can close some shortfalls in the coming year and a half, the most optimistic scenario is Can achieve a balance between supply and demand, so any additional demand growth will bring greater supply and demand gap, cobalt prices will also rise.
Berry estimates that cobalt demand will be 105,000 tons in 2017, of which 50% will be for batteries, and the demand will reach 175,000 tons in 2025, 70% of which are for batteries.
Berry believes cobalt prices will rise in the near term as OEMs and other downstream players in the cobalt supply chain face the cobalt shortage face-to-face, a situation that will continue until the size of the electric car comes to an end in 2020. Therefore, the entire The cobalt supply chain should now invest rather than wait.
Berry believes that since 96% of the cobalt supply comes from the development of both copper and nickel, it is important to first understand the copper-nickel cost curve in order to know the potential for additional cobalt supply. Although the West has criticized its labor issues, DRC will continue to play a decisive role in the future supply of cobalt ore, both in terms of size and grade, and humankind needs a mobile energy supply and energy storage, although it is not certain that copper, lithium, nickel will be required after 5 to 10 years , Cobalt and graphite, but the community's demand for energy and metals will continue to grow.To solve the supply shortage of metals, require different types of technical and financial experts.In the next two years, the level of investment in lithium-ion supply chain will determine the next 15 years fate.
Other minerals
Nickel has not received enough attention among the four key metals and minerals required for lithium-ion batteries, but nickel and lithium are equally important for increasing battery capacity.
Moore forecasts that nickel sulfate demand for batteries will increase from the current 75,000 tons to at least 350,000 to 400,000 tons in 2025. This is in line with the level of lithium demand ... and is currently in demand Three times, four times or even five times, a tremendous shift for these metals, while nickel demand has just begun.
Although nickel demand will come mainly from the steel industry, nickel from electric vehicles will increase from the current 75,000 tons to at least 200,000 tons by 2025. This is a 2 million-ton market and therefore growth in electric vehicles will not result in a nickel price continue rising.
High-quality, flaky graphite is used as a cathode material in lithium-ion batteries, but so far it has fallen less than lithium and cobalt. At present, the global consumption of graphite is 650,000 tons / year. It is estimated that the global share of world- Increased by 1%, its consumption of flake graphite will increase 100,000 tons.
It is estimated that the demand for high-quality graphite will increase by 300% by 2025, and its demand for graphite will increase by 10 to 20 times that of lithium. If we take into account the global steel market growth and the explosive growth of electric vehicles, Future minimum scenario needs, but also need to build several new graphite mines.
