The year 2017 will come to an end and the achievements of PV industry in this year have attracted worldwide attention. Taking the last month left in 2017, we can look forward to the development prospect of PV market in 2018. I still remember that after the unprecedented grab in 2016 earlier this year After the wave of tide, the industry has a very prosperous psychology, and it is generally expected that it will be difficult to sustain the 2016 event in 2017. In fact, the photovoltaic industry once again made leaps and bounds in 2017 and the achievements made are even more shocking than in 2016. That after a continuous breakthrough in 2018, the photovoltaic industry can continue the hot state? In the subsidies, the pressure of cheap Internet access, 2018 will flourish, ushered in the adjustment period of the industry?
Subsidy cut, forcing down the price of components
According to the Notice of the State Development and Reform Commission on Adjusting the On-Grid Tariff of Onshore Wind Power for Photovoltaic Power Generation, the benchmark electricity price of photovoltaic power generation will be adjusted once a year according to the change of cost, so the PV tariff in 2018 will inevitably usher in a downward adjustment again. Concerned about the extent of the downward adjustment will be much.According to the prediction, the next tariff reduction of photovoltaic Internet access will increase, in particular, should be between 0.15-0.2 yuan (click on "subsidies for China's photovoltaic industry to go back down?") And Unlike in previous years, distributed PV subsidies, which have not been reduced for four years, are likely to decrease substantially in 2018. That is to say, PV subsidies will usher in an overall downward adjustment in 2018. In order to maintain the yield, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will inevitably Further decline.
How to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation? From the cost reduction space, the system components other than PV modules only have the price of inverter room to decline, and the decline is limited, other products, including brackets, electrical equipment, cables and other relatively rigid, which Part of the cost is difficult to get a substantial decline in this way, the system's cost of decisive task still needs to be on the component side, so the overall subsidy cut in the case, the price of PV modules will be further reduced in 2018. The decline in component costs rely on Of the main process optimization and battery efficiency.In the process optimization, the recent diamond wire cutting and other technology to optimize the popularity; in the battery efficiency improvements, the expansion of the PERC battery, follow-up there will be N-type double-sided battery The development of new high-efficiency batteries, so in general, the subsidy will largely lead to a decline in component prices, and from the current component technology improvements and battery efficiency point of view, the industry has been preparing for the decline of subsidies.
Subsidies will be in arrears and will ease in 2018
Relatively speaking, photovoltaic power generation is a long investment cycle industry, so the capital flow of photovoltaic companies is particularly important.But the problem of subsidies arrears for PV companies to bear the additional financial pressure, the general high debt ratio of photovoltaic companies.China Energy Lin Boqiang, dean of the Policy Research Institute, said recently that with the dramatic expansion of landscape installation, the gap in subsidies for new energy sources is becoming extremely drastic. In 2012, China's new energy subsidy account has a surplus of 15 billion yuan and will turn to About 700 billion yuan deficit, while in 2017 China's photovoltaic installed capacity has risen sharply, bringing the demand for subsidy of nearly 30 billion yuan in just nine months.
According to the policy, the subsidy for new energy should be compensated by the renewable energy surcharge levied on the sales price, but the subsidy obtained from the renewable energy surcharge obviously can not keep up with the growth of new energy power generation. Only to speed up the pace of development of new energy power generation and speed up the exit of new energy subsidies, but it still takes a few years for subsidies to completely exit, and if there is no new policy introduced, it will always be a problem if there is no new policy. So until then, the country still needs other policies to ease the problem of subsidies to arrears.
Worth looking forward to is the green card trading policy.National Energy Board on July 1 officially launched a voluntary subscription of green power certificates, wind power, photovoltaic power generation companies can apply for green certificates through renewable energy power generation projects and sold to subscribers, the price Not higher than the renewable electricity price corresponding to the certificate Additional funding subsidy amount.According to the Circular of the State Energy Administration on Issuing the Circular on the Trial and Approval of the Renewable Energy Green Power Certificate Issuance and Voluntary Subscription and Trading System, Will start a timely manner renewable electricity power quota assessment and green power certificate forcibly constrained transactions.If the 2018 start of renewable energy power quota assessment and green power certificates mandatory binding transactions, it is hard for such subsidies, struggling in the capital shortage of enterprises , The sale of green card will be a viable option.As the wind power, photovoltaic power generation companies sell renewable green power certificate, the corresponding power is no longer enjoy the state subsidies for additional funding for renewable energy prices, so green card to enforce the constraint transaction Will also be able to ease the pressure of subsidy default to a certain extent.
In addition, the promotion of the distributed partition sales model is also expected to alleviate the pressure of subsidies under arrears, because distributed photovoltaic has a higher yield in the 'partition wall sales' mode, which will allow users to access the Internet at low prices. For companies that own a large number of ground-based PV power plants but are trapped in subsidized arrears, stable cash flow income can be achieved through the 'wall-to-wall' model, greatly improving the company's capital operation. According to the plan, June 30, 2018 Recently, the National Energy Administration will carry out a summary evaluation of pilot trials of distributed generation market-based transactions, improve the mechanism system, and determine the scope and time of promotion as appropriate.
In general, in the face of the predicament of subsidy arrears, the state is looking forward to solving the problem through multiple means. In 2018, there are other relevant policies promulgated.
Non-photovoltaic costs reduce, industry standards tend to improve
At present, although the photovoltaic industry has been getting closer and closer to the target of parity internet access, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will still need to be further reduced if it is to achieve a comprehensive parity network access. However, while photovoltaic power generation technology through various process improvements and battery efficiency breakthroughs significantly reduce costs , Non-photovoltaic costs such as land and tax have remained high, which is expected to improve in September 2017. In September 2017, the National Energy Administration released the Notice on Reducing the Burden of Taxes and Fees Involved in Renewable Energy Projects (Draft for Comment) , Which released the policy of "levying levied VAT levied on 50% of levied value-added tax," "levying land-use tax levied on land," "stopping unlawful charging by local governments," etc. In addition, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office, In September 2017, the Bureau of Energy released the Opinions on Supporting Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation and Regulating the Use of Land for Photovoltaic Power Generation, clarifying once again the specification of land use for photovoltaic power plant construction and relaxing the policy of helping the poor and the people benefit the people through photovoltaic projects Use of land If the above policies are well implemented, the cost of non-PV will be greatly reduced.
In addition, due to the rapid development of the PV industry, it is difficult to keep up with all kinds of standards in various industries and it is difficult for the industry to maintain good development without the restrictions of standards and norms. At present, China's PV industry is in urgent need of a set of authorities covering a wide range of areas, Industry standards system to meet the development of the industry.In response to this, the National Energy Administration, Ministry of Industry and CNCA released "on the main PV products to enhance technical indicators and strengthen supervision of the notice" by 2020, China will initially form a scientific and rational, technical Advanced and coordinated supporting photovoltaic industry standard system, the basic realization of the photovoltaic industry based on common standards and key standards of the full coverage of the overall photovoltaic industry to meet the needs of development.
It is worth mentioning that there will be 8 new standards to be implemented in 2018, may be able to slightly solve the urgent needs of the lack of industry standards for PV .. November 23, the National Energy Board issued 2017 Notice No. 10, the announcement shows that the National Energy Bureau approved 204 industry standards, implementation time for March 1, 2018, which includes photovoltaic standards 8. These eight standards were:
Industry reshuffle soon, enterprises are facing the challenge of life and death
Although the national policy is grave and favorable, it is an indisputable fact that market competition tends to intensify. The industry is now opening up a new round of reshuffling and the enterprises are faced with the challenge of life and death. First of all, for the upstream enterprises, due to the strong rise of the monocrystalline industry in recent years, It has been predicted that monocrystalline penetration will reach 27% by 2016 and is expected to exceed 35% by 2017. In the future, monocrystalline penetration will reach over 50%, becoming the major force for efficient products The rise of single crystal is bound to squeeze the living space of the polycrystalline industry, some polycrystalline enterprises can not escape the fate of the collapse.In addition, it is understood that polycrystalline diamond GCL polycrystalline transformation ahead of schedule, 11 The proportion of products on the diamond line has been over 90%, the end of the B5 machine has been completed the transformation of all, now 100% to implement next year's orders. Diamond wire transformation to bring higher cutting speed and lower silicon consumption, no doubt, Polycrystalline silicon manufacturers that are unable to popularize diamond wire cutting technology will gradually be eliminated.
For component manufacturers, the future will be efficient components due to the requirement of "reducing cost and increasing efficiency." Currently, efficient products such as PERC components, black silicon components, double glass components and double-sided components will become the market Darling.While those inefficient, backward technology components will gradually withdraw from the stage, the future there is no technical advantage, unable to produce efficient components of the enterprise will be difficult to keep up with the pace of development of the industry.
For downstream power plant investors, due to the distributed outbreak, the focus of PV development has shifted to the central and eastern regions, and the land cost in the central and eastern regions is relatively high. Due to the scarcity of high-quality roof resources, the development of household photovoltaic may lead to 'grab Rooftop. "In view of the fact that distributed PV is still in its early stages of development, products that have made a name for themselves, taken the lead in establishing a brand image and gaining a good reputation, will be favored by the market.
summary
Overall, despite the downward pressure on subsidies, the industry itself is becoming more efficient and non-PV costs are expected to decline. Therefore, the downward adjustment of subsidies should not cause any significant impact on the industry. In addition, industry standards and norms The implementation of which will make the market more mature.It is expected that the distributed PV will maintain its rapid growth in 2018 and is expected to account for more than 50% of the newly installed capacity, on the basis that the PV market in 2018 will continue its growth The inflection point of the photovoltaic industry, perhaps slow to come.
