British media said the global energy market, what happens next, depends largely on China.
According to a report in the Financial Times website on 27 November, China remembers the fact that over the past 30 years China has freed more than 700 million people from poverty, and these people are now consumers of commercial energy.For the past 10 years, The number of Chinese-owned cars is growing at 19% a year, and China has become an important importer and exporter of goods and services from an economically self-sufficient country 57% of Chinese now live In cities, energy demand is nearly four times that of 40 years ago, accounting for one quarter of global consumption.
Reported that such growth mainly comes from the consumption of coal and oil imports in recent years.However, as China's economy matures and rebalances, the energy composition will change.The problem is that we do not know what kind of change will come or When did it happen?
The report lists the three most likely scenarios.
The report said: First, China has successfully developed shale gas and even tight oil, and these resources are certain. The US Bureau of Energy Information Administration said that China's shale gas reserves are 1115 trillion cubic feet (about 316,000 cubic feet) Billion cubic meters), most of which are yet to be developed.Although it has become fashionable to oppose the economically viable development of these resources, it is entirely possible that China would replace the import demand with self-produced shale gas within a few years and even achieve Self-sufficient.
At present, one third of China's natural gas demand is dependent on imports of liquefied natural gas, with almost all of the long-term projections for the industry and the future plans of major gas-producing countries such as Russia and Australia are based on the continued growth of China's imports, for example, In its latest forward outlook, the Energy Agency forecasts a threefold increase in natural gas imports by 2040. For these figures, China will become one of the major gas importers, so consider if China's imports Suddenly no longer import, will have what kind of impact.
This is not the case? The report said to himself or herself that anyone who thinks so should look at what happened in the United States over the past 10 years. Thanks to the unexpected exploitation of shale resources, a former major importer of natural gas Export volume is gradually increasing.
The report goes on to say that the second possibility comes up again, assuming that China is concerned about the dependence on imported oil (oil from regions such as Angola, the Persian Gulf and Venezuela that is transported to China via the Strait of Malacca). Suppose the traditional self-sufficiency perspective again Gaining the upper hand, imports of over 12 million barrels of oil per day (IEA's forecast for 2030) are unacceptable to China, where imported oil will only be used for special purposes without alternatives and personal trips will be Mandatory use of electric vehicles For global markets, the impact may be a reduction in aggregate demand and a significant drop in public trading volume, with the price likely to fall sharply.
A third possibility, reported in the report, is the shift to economic models based on service and personal consumption, where factories will be shut down in the worst air-quality cities where alternative employment can be provided, but nationally, Coal mines will continue to operate and deliver power to cities throughout the country through an expanding high-voltage grid.
Reported that no matter what happens, any measures taken by China for its own consideration will affect the world.The same is true of the renewable energy market, China is changing the global market through technological progress and reduce production costs.And the electric car industry And the nuclear power industry, Beijing will build a new generation of small reactors and compete with the current nuclear powers.
In conclusion, the report concludes that the power balance is changing and that the future energy market will be made in China.