plastic It may be something that every one of us touches from small to large, such as plastic bags, baby bottles, beverage bottles, lunch boxes, cling film, plastic sheeting, furniture, appliances, 3D printing and even rockets and missiles. Plastic figure in the futures market, linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (pvc ) Is also deeply concerned about the industry chain of varieties.
How important is the plastic?
Plastic - resin as the main ingredient, with or without other compounding materials (Additives ) Is composed of plastic materials under heating and pressurizing conditions.It is one of the world's three major organic polymer materials (the three major polymer materials are plastic, rubber, fiber). Plastic English name is plastic, commonly known as Plastic.
The basic plastic raw material Is a low molecular weight carbon, hydrogen compound, which is a synthetic resin extracted and synthesized from petroleum, natural gas or coal lysate, classified according to the application of plastic, into general purpose plastics and engineering plastics.
Universal plastic: large output, low price, general performance (such as: PE, PP, PVC, PS, abs Wait)
Engineering Plastics: Excellent overall performance, can be used as structural materials (such as: PC, POM, PA, PET, PBT and so on, the production of engineering plastics is relatively small, the price is more expensive).
Polyethylene (PE) is the most widely used variety of synthetic resins with excellent processability and serviceability, and its production capacity has been the first place among the plastic varieties for a long time. Polyethylene resin mainly includes low-density polyethylene (LDPE) LLDPE, HDPE and MDPE.
Polyethylene is widely used in China. Film is its largest user, accounting for about 77% of low-density polyethylene and 18% of high-density polyethylene. In addition, injection products, wire and cable and hollow products all occupy their consumption structure A large proportion of PE in the top five general-purpose resin consumption ranked first.Polyethylene can be blow molded into a variety of bottles, cans and industrial tanks, barrels and other containers; injection molding manufacturing all kinds of pots, barrels, baskets , Baskets, baskets and other daily use containers, daily sundries and furniture, etc .; extrusion molding all kinds of pipe, strapping and fiber, monofilament, etc .. In addition, can also be used in the manufacture of wire and cable coating materials and synthetic paper. Among the many applications, polyethylene is the two main areas of consumption is the pipe and film.With urban construction, agricultural film and a variety of food, textiles and industrial products package The development of the industry, the development of these two areas is also more and more broad.
The future of polyethylene resin applications will continue to focus on packaging, agriculture, construction and wire and cable, etc. Among them, the film is still the largest use of polyethylene.
For LDPE and HDPE, the cost calculation is not accurate. Considering the difference between raw material composition and production equipment, the overall cost is lower for LDPE> HDPE> LLDPE and LLDPE than for HDPE, and LDPE is more successful.
How to calculate the cost?
Naphtha France
LLDPE Production Cost = Naphtha CFR Japan Median Price * USD BOC Department * 1.35 * (1 + 17%) + 1300
HDPE Production Cost = Naphtha CFR Japan Median Price * USD BOC Department * 1.35 * (1 + 17%) + 1450
LDPE Production Cost = Naphtha CFR Japan Median Price * USD BOC Department * 1.35 * (1 + 17%) + 1800
Ethane gas method
The cost of ethane gas legal ethylene is about 1/3 naphtha France, the same cost of polymerization
Methanol method
LLDPE production cost = methanol price * 3 + 1300
Downstream plastic demand: seasonal classification of agricultural film production
Spring Murakami: Each year from January to January is the beginning of spring mulching production, entering the production peak season from February to March, followed by the middle of March to May, the spring mulching season.
Film production: started in June-July of each year, entered in August after the start of Shandong Province, film sales gradually into the peak season, the dealer purchase amplification, the film production in September-October to reach the most prosperous The production of greenhouse film will generally last until the Spring Festival.
Garlic film: Production in mid-August to mid-September, the time to maintain a month, the current national demand for plastic film in 30,000 tons.
Into May, most of the plastic film production enterprises discontinued, overhauling the machine.
Domestic polyethylene supply status
China's polyethylene industry through the continuous development in recent years, so far the annual production capacity of the device reached 13.9 million tons in the 12th Five-Year period there are still Chengdu Refining, China Petrochemical, Shanxi Coking (600,740, Shares) and other devices put into operation, to ten At the end of the second five-year period, polyethylene production capacity will reach 18 million tons, with the major domestic manufacturers forming the three pillars of the three major industries: PetroChina, Sinopec and joint ventures with a capacity of 3.82 million tons, accounting for 27.48% and PetroChina's production capacity of 5.14 million tons Compared with 36.98%, joint venture production capacity of 4.94 million tons accounted for 35.54% .In 2013 polyethylene production in 1030 tons, the apparent consumption of 17.9 million tons, there are still more than 700 million tons of the gap. Have to rely on imports , So imported materials rely on its relatively high performance and cost advantages occupy an important proportion of China's polyethylene market.However, with the expansion of domestic production capacity, polyethylene's dependence on foreign materials gradually reduced, currently remained at about 44%. And with the diversification of olefin raw materials during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the self-sufficiency rate of our country will increase substantially.
Domestic polyethylene production during the 12th situation
The above table shows the new capacity statistics for 2014-2015 as a result of too many production plants put into operation, with a total of 13.9 million tons of polyethylene capacity in China as of 2014. It is estimated that it will reach 18 million tons by the end of 2015 , The problem of oversupply of common materials in our country is even more conspicuous.Although the 12th Five-Year Plan proposes the development plan of coal-to-olefin and shale gas in the diversification of olefin raw materials, a careful analysis shows that it is still impossible to change the production of naphtha-based olefins The traditional position, but will play a significant role in changing our country's energy structure.
Analysis of Development of Downstream Polyethylene Industry in China
In recent years, the overall structure of consumption of polyethylene products in China little change, the top three are still plastic pipe fittings, plastic film and plastic rope products.First plastic film point of view, due to its multi-terminal consumption and transport links, The growth of its demand has a great relationship with the development of the domestic economy as a whole, maintaining a slightly higher growth rate than the growth of domestic GDP. The growth momentum is stable and there is demand rigidity.
Plastic film yield statistics from the point of view, since 2005 an average of 10.31% (488.15 to 9,703,000 tons), also confirmed the steady growth of plastic film Another important area of consumption of polyethylene plastic Pipe, its output also accelerated with the pace of urbanization in our country, municipal pipeline Increasing implementation of construction projects in the next few years urban supply, drainage, gas pipelines, as well as the city underground power, communications sheathing pipe and other municipal utilities Plastic pipe Will continue to be the focus of development in recent years.
Plastic industry fundamentals how to analyze
demand analysis--
Explanatory variables:
1, plastic film production
2, plastic film business unit operating rate
3, LLDPE exports
Expected variables:
1, LDPE price difference with the substitute
2, plastic film production capacity changes
3, plastic film business new orders, raw materials inventory, finished inventory
4, traders on the market outlook
5, plastic film business outlook is expected
Supply Analysis -
Explanatory variables:
1, LLDPE production, equipment maintenance, equipment operating rate
2, LLDPE imports
3, LLDPE manufacturers, traders, social warehouses and exchange stocks
Expected variables:
1, LLDPE capacity changes
2, crude oil, naphtha, ethane gas, methanol prices, LLDPE, the overall petrochemical, HDPE profits
3, the disc within the current price difference, spot spreads inside and outside the disk, the price difference,
4, the progress of production technology
5, the manufacturer's outlook is expected
Supply and demand balance forecast -
Domestic production forecast: Estimated domestic production capacity and operating rate of domestic imports forecast: According to domestic and foreign spreads and seasonal changes in imports
Domestic demand forecast: Increase according to the proportion of annual demand and seasonally adjusted
On a monthly basis, according to the above forecast results, to determine the follow-up changes in supply and demand, and track inventory changes to control the previous forecast
Polyethylene price one of the factors: upstream raw material price fluctuations
1. Crudeoil - Naphtha - Ethylene / C2 - Polyethylene (PE)
Linear polyethylene is a kind of polyethylene. As can be seen from the production process, crude oil, naphtha and ethylene are their upstream raw materials. Their price fluctuation will directly affect the price of PE, including the price of LLDPE.
Upstream and downstream prices of raw materials on the formation of the PE market, short-term and long-term impact of two types of short-term impact is the price fluctuations in the upper reaches of raw materials, the psychological impact of traders, distributors 'reservoir' role makes more or bearish psychology Changes and changes in raw material prices are closely related.For example, the continuous surge in oil prices or monomer may trigger the sentiment of dealers led to heavy volume transactions, promote polyethylene prices.
As an upstream raw material for LLDPE, changes in crude oil, naphtha, and monomer prices are bound to cause fluctuations in LLDPE prices, a cost-driven and long-term effect.
Crude oil
The oil price we are seeing now is a futures price, combined with a certain period of production and processing of polyethylene, so the fluctuation of crude oil will not have a cost impact on the spot PE spot on that day. The cost-driving it generates will be A certain delay.
Naphtha
The most cost-effective aspect of PE is naphtha, not crude oil, as most of the current polyethylene plants are unitary, meaning they buy naphtha instead of vinyl.
Ethylene monomer
This is the cost of producing polyethylene in China, where raw materials (monomers and olefins) account for as much as 87% of cost factors, while other factors are relatively stable in the production costs of polyolefins, so it can be said Monomer price changes are the most important factor affecting the cost of polyolefins.
The cost of processing polyethylene to polyethylene typically ranges from US $ 120 to US $ 150 / tonne, but as noted earlier, most PE installations are unitary, so the impact of ethylene monomer on PE prices is not as direct as the price of naphtha.
Polyethylene price factors two: supply and demand situation
First, the supply side
1. Domestic petrochemicals
Domestic impact on the price of LLDPE mainly lies in petrochemical stocks, equipment maintenance and switching and petrochemical settlement, assessment policies.
Specifically, petrochemical stocks are part of the total social resources, and this part is directly related to the domestic petrochemical pricing measures, therefore, the level of petrochemical stocks is a barometer of LLDPE prices.In general, the domestic petrochemical have their own design Storage capacity, when the inventory level exceeds the normal inventory, due to sales pressure Domestic petrochemicals may take measures to reduce the price to promote sales.On the contrary, when the sales are smooth, inventory is low, it means there is the potential of petrochemical push up.
Equipment maintenance and switching will lead to a certain level or brand original supply plummets or surge, thus breaking the original balance between supply and demand, causing LLDPE price fluctuations.
Moreover, the petrochemical assessment policy will have a certain impact on the price of LLDPE.Such as Sinopec's end-of-month settlement and the monthly buyout of CNPC, on the one hand, the supply, on the other hand will have an impact on the spot price .
2. Import supply
The impact of import supply on the domestic market price of LLDPE is mainly reflected in both quantity and price, of which the impact of quantity is more important. Under normal circumstances, foreign suppliers generally have a relatively fixed number of sales to the mainland China market. Therefore, the supply Of the domestic supply and demand will have an impact on the balance of supply and demand.For example, in the domestic supply and demand is relatively stable, the import volume shrinking or sharply for months in a row, will inevitably lead to the balance of supply and demand has been the original destruction in the search for new The balance of the process, the spot price will be more obvious ups and downs.
The change of supply is closely related to the overhaul conditions and operating rates of the installations. In addition, the supply is also closely related to the domestic demand of the suppliers and the market conditions of neighboring countries, such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
In the long run, the sales volume of suppliers in China is also related to its corporate strategy, if the expansion plan, sales pattern and so on.
Second, the demand side
Actual demand
The so-called actual demand refers to the downstream factory production needs, the impact mainly involves three aspects.
First, the impact of the existing inventory on the timing of the procurement. The downstream factory inventory is also part of the total social resources, its level or not directly affect the factory's procurement time, the raw material market transactions is a non-negligible impact factor.
Second, the impact of the production conditions of the downstream factories on the operating rate is directly related to the demand, which is mainly reflected in the power shortage in summer factories, resulting in the shortage of operating rates.
The third aspect is related to the downstream factory product sales: 1. The peak season of product sales - such as LLDPE in the Chinese market, a main purpose for the agricultural film, generally before and after the Spring Festival and July-September is the two production peak season, were concentrated The production of plastic film and greenhouse films, the strong demand for LLDPE; 2 product price changes affect the factory procurement cost control - such as agricultural film is a lower profit margins downstream products, its sales of products or the price drop will be direct Affect the factory's cost control of raw material procurement, thus affecting the volume; 3. The convening of a variety of trading meetings on the downstream factory orders have an impact, to promote demand growth.
2. Speculative demand
The so-called speculative demand refers to changes in demand caused by traders' behavior such as stocking or selling centrally, mainly including merchant inventory, supply costs, financial status and attitude.
Inventory - The inventory of traders, other than petrochemical stocks, downstream stocks, is another major component of social resources. Traders' stock represents the size of the 'reservoir' and high stock levels mean market circulation Sluggish prices, weakness, showing signs of weakness; and stocks are low, then the market can still be traded, with upward momentum.
Funding situation - Traders with pressure to pay for foreign exchange will often withdraw their funds through the sale of goods at a low price, resulting in some ultra-low quotations on the market, which will shaken the public sentiment when the market trend is uncertain. However, generally speaking, This situation has a limited impact on prices.
Mentality - which means that traders on the market outlook is directly related to whether it is stocking Jiancang, the impact on the volume of the short term is more obvious, thus guiding the price trend.
Three factors affecting the price of polyethylene: macro policies and regulations
First, the import tariffs
As one of the main uses of linear is to produce farmland film and other agricultural products, due to policy subsidies for farmers, China's import tariff on LLDPE was reduced to 6.5% in 2005, much lower than that of LDPE and HDPE, which stimulated LLDPE's import trade, LLDPE imports in 2005 a substantial increase over 2004 nearly 50%, especially in the northern ports.
Second, the export tax rebate
State Administration of Taxation Circular No. 90 of 2007, since July 1, plastic and its downstream products (tariff No. 3901-3926) export tax rebate rate to 5%.
Technical Information: The world's 11 main types of polyethylene production technology
Currently there are many companies in the world with polyethylene technology, LDPE technology has 7, LLDPE and full density technology companies have 10, HDPE technology companies 12. From the technical development situation, high pressure production of LDPE PE Resin production in the most mature method, the kettle method and tube method technology have matured, the current two kinds of production technology co-exist. Developed countries commonly used tubular production process.In addition, foreign companies generally use low temperature and high The active catalyst initiates the polymerization system, which can reduce the reaction temperature and pressure.LDPE produced by high-pressure process will develop in the direction of large-scale and tubular.HDPE and LLDPE are produced by low-pressure process mainly using titanium series and networked catalyst, Geller-based titanium catalyst, and the United States more use of network catalyst.At present the world's main application of polyethylene production technology with 11 species, are briefly described as follows:
Basel Company Gas Phase Spherilene Process
Linear PE can be produced from very low density PE (ULDPE) to LLDPE, HDPE, etc. Adopting Ziegler-Natta titanium-based catalysts and Spherilene gas-phase processes In the presence of light inert hydrocarbons, The bulk is polymerized in bulk and bulk polymerization takes place under mild conditions.The slurry enters the first gas phase reactor and is cooled by a recycle gas circuit cooler and then into two gas phase reactors.The product density is from ULDPE (less than 900 kg / m3 ) To HDPE (greater than 960 kg / m3) and melt flow rates (MFR) from 0.01 to 100. Because of the use of two gas phase reactors, it is possible to produce bimodal grades and specialty polymers. Since the Spherilene process was introduced to the market in 1992, Now has a production capacity of 1.8 million tons / year. Six production facilities (one in the United States, two in South Korea, two in Brazil, one in India) have been put into operation and another two (one in India and Iran) In the single-line production capacity from 100,000 tons / year to 300,000 tons / year. At present, China does not have such technology production plant.
Nordic Chemical Company Bastar process
North Star PE process can produce bimodal and unimodal LLDPE, MDPE (medium density PE) and HDPE. The series loop, gas phase low pressure reactor. PE density of 918-970kg / m3, melt index of 0.1-100. Using ZN catalyst Or SSC (single site) catalyst.
The catalyst was mixed with the propane diluent into a compact pre-polymerisation reactor with co-catalyst, ethylene, comonomer and hydrogen fed in. The prepolymerized slurry was re-entered into a second, larger slurry loop reactor under supercritical conditions ( 75-100 ° C, 5.5-6.5 MPa) to produce a bimodal grade product, and the flashed polymer is further fed to a fluidized bed gas phase reactor without the addition of a new catalyst to give a homopolymer, gas phase reaction The operating conditions were: 75-100 ℃, 2.0MPa. The first industrialized unit was put into operation in Finland in 1995. Two production lines (450,000 t / a bimodal product) constructed in Abu Dhabi were put into operation in the second half of 2001 The fifth 250000 tons / year plant (the second set of bimodal) is also China's Shanghai Petrochemical (600688, stock it) company built to become China's largest PE plant, the process of the largest single-line design capacity of up to 30 million Ton / year.
BP company gas phase Innovene process
Produces LLDPE and HDPE products using ZN titanium, chromium or metallocene catalysts Chromium catalysts produce products with broad molecular weight distributions and Ziegler-Natta catalysts produce narrow molecular weight distribution products. Operating conditions are mild, 75-100 ℃ and 2.0MPa. Butene or hexene can be used as comonomer. Has 30 sets of production lines put into operation, design or construction. Capacity of 50,000-350,000 tons / year.
Technip Partners with BP to Host BP's Innovene Process for Polyethylene Production in Europe, the Former Soviet Union, South America, China and Malaysia BP's InnovenePE capacity now exceeds 8 million tonnes / year, including BandarIman, Scotland Granger Meers, Merak in Indonesia and Keltiec in Malaysia etc. The second expansion of the LLDPE / HDPE plant at China's Dushanzi Petrochemical Company was also expanded to Innovate from 120,000 tons / year to 200,000 tons / year. Secco's new 600,000-tonne polyethylene will use this technology.
ExxonMobil Tube and Tank Reaction Process
LDPE homopolymer and EVA (Ethylene Vinyl Acetate) copolymer were produced by high pressure free radical process using a large-scale tubular reactor (130,000-350,000 tons / year capacity) and a stirred tank reactor (about 100,000 tons capacity / Year) Tube reactor operating pressure up to 300 MPa, tank reactor below 200 MPa The advantage of high pressure process is to shorten the residence time, the same reactor can be switched from the production of homopolymer to copolymer Homopolymer polymer The density is 912-935kg / m3, the melt index is 0.2-150, the content of vinyl acetate can be as high as 30%, the material consumption per ton of polymer produced is 1.008 tons of ethylene, 800kwh of electricity, 0.35t of steam and 5m3 of nitrogen. There are 23 high pressure reactor put into operation, production capacity of 1.7 million tons / year. Production of homopolymer and a variety of copolymers. At present, Yanshan new 200,000 tons / year LDPE plant that uses the company's tubular technology.
Mitsui Chemicals low pressure slurry CX process
Can produce HDPE and MDPE, the use of low pressure slurry CX process. Produce bimodal molecular weight distribution of products. Ethylene, hydrogen, comonomers and ultra-high activity catalyst into the reactor, the polymerization occurred in the slurry state, the nature of the polymer The control system effectively controls the quality of the product without the need for ultra-high activity catalysts to be removed from the product.The 90% solvent that is separated from the slurry can be recycled directly to the reactor without any treatment and can produce narrow or broad molecular weight distribution Of the product, the density of 930-970kg / m3, the melt index of 0.01-50. Production per ton of product material consumption, energy consumption: ethylene and comonomer 1010kg, power 305kwh, steam 340kg, cooling water 190t, nitrogen 30m3. 35 production lines put into operation or construction, with a total capacity of 3.6 million tons / year. At present, due to the technology companies mainly Daqing 220,000 tons of equipment, Yangtze and Yanshan 140,000 tons of equipment, Lanzhou, 70,000 tons of equipment.
Chevron - Phillips company double loop reactor LPE process
Linear Polyethylene (LPE) is produced using the Phillips Petroleum LPE process and is polymerized in a loop reactor and an isobutane slurry using an extremely active catalyst.The product melt index and molecular weight distribution can be adjusted by the catalyst, operating conditions and hydrogen Control comonomer available butene-1, hexene-1, octene-1, etc. High activity catalyst so that no catalyst removal, polymerization without paraffin or other by-products generated, greatly reducing the escape of the environment Contamination: Ethylene, isobutane, comonomer and catalyst continuously enter the loop reactor and react at less than 100 ° C and about 4.0 MPa for a residence time of about 1 hour. The single pass conversion of ethylene is over 97% Material consumption and energy consumption: 1.007 tons of ethylene, 2-10 dollars of catalyst and chemicals (for different products), 350kwh of electric power, 0.25t of steam, 185t of cooling water and 30m3 of nitrogen. There are already 82 production lines put into operation and construction, PE capacity of 34%. Shanghai Jinfei company's 135,000 tons plant is the use of the technology. Maoming new 350,000 tons / year of new installations may also use this technology.
Univation Technologies LPG Unipol Process
LLDPE-HDPE is produced using a low pressure, air pressure UnipolPE process using a slurry catalyst and a gas phase, fluidized bed reactor using conventional and metallocene catalysts without the need for catalyst removal steps with lower capital and operating costs and less environmental impact. , Comonomer and catalyst into a fluidized bed reactor operating at about 100 ° C and 2.5 MPa with a product density of 915-970 kg / m3 and a melt index of 0.1-200. Narrow or broad molecular weight distributions can be adjusted depending on the type of catalyst There are 89 production lines put into operation or construction. Single-line capacity of 40,000 -4,500,000 tons / year. At present, there are many devices using this technology, mainly Maoming, Jilin, Yangtze, Tianjin, Central Plains, Guangzhou, Daqing, Qilu Wait.
Stamicarbon COMPACT process
The process uses advanced ZN catalyst COMPACTSolution technology to produce a density of PE 900-970kg / m3 using a stirred tank reactor, the polymerization temperature of 200 ° C. Hydrogen is used to control the molecular weight of the polymer without removing the catalyst step to produce per ton Product consumption, energy consumption: ethylene and comonomer 1.016t, power 500kwh, steam 400kg, cooling water 230m3, low-pressure steam (output) 330kg. 5 sets of equipment put into operation, the total capacity of 650,000 tons / year.
Basel Polyolefin Company Hostalen Process
The HDPE was produced by a Hostalen stirred tank reactor using two reactors in parallel or in series for slurry polymerization.The material consumption per ton of product was as follows: energy consumption of ethylene and comonomer 1.015t, steam 400kg, power 350kwh, cooling water 165m3 There are 31 production lines in operation or design, the production capacity of nearly 3.4 million tons / year. At present in the country using the technology of the device for Liaohua company, the production capacity of only 40,000 tons. The technology is currently the largest single-line production capacity up to 35 Tons of tons / year, can produce almost all products, including bimodal, including its film, hollow and pipe and other products in the world has a certain reputation.
Eni Chemical Company high-pressure process
LDPE and EVA are produced by autoclave autoclave or tube process LDPE has a density of 918-935 kg / m3 and VAM (vinyl acetate monomer) content in EVA can range from 3% -40%. There are already 24 production lines in operation or in design , Single-line capacity can be as high as 200,000 tons / year.Currently the investment cost and energy consumption of the device is relatively high, the new device generally do not use the technology.
Stamicarbon's high pressure process
LDPE and EVA copolymer were produced by using high-pressure tubular reactor, and the material consumption per ton of production was as follows: 1.005t of ethylene, 800kwh of electricity, 230kg of high pressure steam, 120m3 of cooling water and 650kg of low pressure steam , Has a single line capacity of 150,000 -30 million tons / year plant put into operation, the total capacity of more than 1.8 million tons / year.