With his step down, TSMC's performance is about to enter the second chapter, the starring people will also be replaced from the only girlfriend partner performance .But this code, such a team, can continue to get the customer's recognition, continue to win the market Full house color, is the next most noteworthy place for TSMC.
The efficiency of dual-headdress still needs to be observed
Dual leadership, a new leadership system that Zhang Zhongmou is retiring on the back of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Under this system, two leading and chairman Liu Deyin and president Wei Zhejia will jointly lead TSMC and make parallel decisions.
In terms of operating structure, the chairman of the board leads the board of directors, the highest representative of the outside of TSMC and the ultimate decision-maker. The president is responsible for the company's business strategy. The leading company and the chief financial officer also report to the president.
The advantages of dual-headship are that it avoids the risk of a single decision and makes the operation of the enterprise unduly dependent on the individual's ability and will of a certain leader, resulting in a situation of ups and downs. In the long run, it is a relatively stable and trustworthy mechanism.
On the contrary, however, the shortcomings of the double-supervisor system, that is, the efficiency of implementation, may be challenged.
If they are well matched, the two leaders will naturally operate smoothly and can even achieve the effect of complementarity and mutual assistance. However, if they are not properly matched, internal management and external operation will hardly make any progress. What TSMC has long known for Discipline and efficiency are hard to sustain.
However, looking at the cooperation between the two successors over the past three years, it seems that there is still no issue of conflict or miscommunication and are willing to respect each other's views. In addition, Zhang Zhongmou also praised both successors, And that two successors in the personality can complement each other.
"It is inevitable that there will be different opinions, but that is, depending on each other's strengths." Mr Lau answered reporters' questions on how to cooperate.
The continuation and termination of Moore's Law
Zhang Zhongmou is undoubtedly the best spokesperson for Moore's Law, TSMC led by him led by the perfect interpretation of the law of the semiconductor development of this course, and of course TSMC is the main profit under this law, or even Moore's Law Advocates.
However, with the continued miniaturization of technology, the physical limits of silicon wafers are at hand. The continuation and elimination of Moore's Law will become another key issue for TSMC.
In September of this year, Zhang Zhongmou just talked about the limit of Moore's Law, he believes that in the plane, Moore's Law can also have about 10 years.With the process, which is at least can be developed to 3 nm, but 3 nm The following is an unknown, and this issue is bound to become a turning point in the development of TSMC.
To TSMC's current schedule, 3nm production time will be 2022, that is, five years later, plus two years later, is 2024, then, the design of the semiconductor turn to what direction , Production equipment and semiconductor materials can provide what kind of support, will determine the end of Moore's Law will fall.
But to be sure, until 2024, TSMC will continue the context of Moore's Law to the physical limits of the silicon wafer, and the performance of integrated circuits will continue to multiply, unless there is an accident, otherwise most of the electronics Technology products are still there for several beautiful days.
Continue to dominate the foundry market
Now it seems that the professional foundry (Pure-play foundry) is indeed a far-sighted business model, both from a manufacturing point of view, or from a business point of view, are the necessary and necessary semiconductor industry chain exist.
In particular, as the design of the chip becomes more and more complicated and the manufacturing process becomes more and more miniaturized, the cost of manufacturing the chip has already surpassed that of a single company. Taking the 20-nanometer chip as an example, the cost of the chip has reached as high as $ 130 million 100 million yuan), without a professional foundry, semiconductor technology in the short term you want to have a breakthrough, it is minimal.
IC Insights, a semiconductor market research firm, also predicts that global CSPR will reach 7.6% CAGR between 2016 and 2021 and the market will grow to 72.1 billion US dollars in 2021. So it is almost impossible to do so Said that since Zhang Zhongmou hit a foundry model, TSMC has its own card an irreplaceable position.Especially in the field of advanced manufacturing process, TSMC accumulated experience and technology has long been competitors to the back, it is difficult to catch up .
After the second half of 2018, TSMC's 12-inch fab in Nanjing, China, will start volume production to serve the world's largest semiconductor market in the near future, which will bring a huge boost to TSMC. Computing will be a comprehensive promotion of the needs of the semiconductor, TSMC has set up four platforms: mobile computing, high performance computing, Internet of things and automotive electronics, customer service needs of different markets.
Exploration of unknown market and technology
TSMC, of course, is not easy, the past investment in solar energy and LED business have failed to make ends meet, but this proves that TSMC is still seeking market opportunities outside the industry, and even earlier Toshiba Semiconductor sales case, TSMC had This assessment, obviously finding a new market has been one of TSMC's internal goals.
Therefore, as TSMC enters the new dual-chief system, it is also worth observing whether there will be a change in the basis for evaluating the new business.
In terms of technology, TSMC will need to plan for the technological development after 3 nanometers in order to allow customers to have some business plan with them in the future.One possible option is to switch to 3D IC development and another It is the world after continuing to explore 2 nanometers.
If the switch to the 3D IC, the yield rate of TSV and the heat dissipation and circuit performance after the stack still need to be improved. Furthermore, the overall manufacturing cost of the 3D IC can be reduced to the ideal range. The key to the development of this technology.
If the continuous miniaturization to 2 nanometers below, the wafer material and related process equipment have to cope with it, it is possible to achieve.For materials, the current popular alternative is graphene, due to its toughness is higher than Silicon material is much, but also have better thermal conductivity, the chip frequency theory can reach 300GHz.
However, the cost of stone material is very high, and are currently in the experimental stage, whether the business is still unknown, but including IBM, GlobalFoundries (GlobalFoundries), Intel and Samsung have been studying.
Conservative challenges
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the founding of TSMC. Looking back at this period, we have seen an emerging enterprise that has not stopped its growth and is moving forward in unchartered territory. However, "becoming, living, being bad and empty" is a cycle of the world The basic principle, the next is bound to turn to the next stage of development.
If TSMC in the era of Zhang Zhongmou has already passed the stage of "completion," the next step is to "live" it is the challenge of becoming a TSMC operator. Whether it can live permanently or for a long time is the concern of Taiwan and the rest of the world.
Figure 1: TSMC milestones and process charts