First, the benchmark price reduction is imperative
1 international bid electricity prices hit a new low
According to the report of 'electrek', recently the bidding result of 2.3VW / 5.5TWh (5.5 billion KWh in 2020) photovoltaic procurement bid of Mexico's Ministry of Energy recently came out. ENEL Green Power Company of Italy offered 1.77 cents / kWh (equivalent to RMB 0.11 / kWh), set a record for Saudi Arabia's lowest PV offer of 1.79 cents / kWh not long ago, the article concludes that a price of 1 cent / kWh (equivalent to 7 cents / kWh) may be available by 2019.
Figure: electrek report the original screenshots
The average quoted price of other companies in this Mexican bid for photovoltaic projects is 2.05 cents / kWh, while the Canadian company Artes' quoted price is 2.02-2.34 cents / kWh.
Up to now, the lowest electricity price in China is the winning price of 0.45 yuan / kWh (forecasted to be connected to the grid in 2018) of Yingli, the forerunner of Wuhai.Although the difference in electricity price caused by the grid-connected time nodes has been constantly exploding against the international community Of the lowest PV prices, the current 0.65 yuan / kWh, 0.75 yuan / kWh, 0.85 yuan / kWh benchmark electricity prices significantly higher than the international level.
2 Renewable energy energy subsidies a huge gap, cheap Internet access schedule to determine
It is predicted that by 2020 China's renewable energy supplementary subsidies gap may reach 300 billion yuan level, many articles have done a detailed explanation, not repeat them here.
On November 8, the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated the Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Price Mechanism in an all-round way. The document clearly stated that the implementation of the solar power benchmarking mechanism for the withdrawal of the benchmark price of on-grid electricity, such as wind power and photovoltaic, will achieve a similar tariff , Photovoltaic electricity price and electricity grid sales price quite.
Based on the above two points, 2018 PV benchmark price reduction is imperative!
On the basis of the reduction of the benchmark electricity price, the project needs to ensure that the existing profits will inevitably require the price of the photovoltaic system to decline, mainly due to the decrease of the price of the photovoltaic modules.
Second, the price of PV modules did not show a significant decline
Prior to this, State Power voted to bid for general projects, front runners and super-leader projects to be executed in the first half of 2018 with a total scale of up to 3.4GW and was the industry benchmark for component prices in the first half of 2018. The opening results of the project are as follows table.
Table: Guodian bid opening result
Compared with PVinfolink's research results of PV modules last week (as shown below), the average bidding price of GDD is 3 ~ 4 cents lower than the current price, showing that the quotations of all component companies are reported at the current prices in the first half of 2018 Relative to the present will not significantly decline.
PV module prices did not drop significantly, and other costs of photovoltaic systems (bracket, concrete, cable, labor costs) are rising, so the overall cost of PV system will not decrease in the first half of 2018.
The following table is PVtools on three types of resource area, generating capacity is better, the project cost under different construction cost estimates.
Table: Total return on investment for a type of area (1500 hours) at various construction costs
Table: Total investment return on second-tier (1250 hours) at various construction costs
Table: Three types of area (1100 hours) at different construction costs when the investment rate of return
From the three tables, we can see that at the current low level of total investment (6,000 yuan / kW), irrespective of the case of defaulted subsidies (in fact, more than 3 years of arrears)
Now the benchmark price cut 2.5 points / kWh, one or two types of projects with better electricity generation, the proceeds can basically meet the investment requirements, but the three types of electricity prices must reduce system costs Caixing.
Now the benchmark price cut 5 points / kWh, even if one, two, three types of projects with better electricity generation, the return does not meet the investment requirements.
However, a 5% cut / kWh is significantly lower than the national estimate, and the actual reduction may be as high as 0.1 yuan / kWh or above, which means that the system cost may be lowered by 1,000 yuan / kW (1 yuan / W).
Obviously, according to the previous component price expectation, the price of components in 2018 (at least the first half of the year) can not be lowered by 1 yuan / W! PV benchmark price is reduced and the cost of PV system is not reduced, the profitability of the project will surely decline. Investors The investment will inevitably lower.
Third, the industry is generally optimistic about the 2018 PV market
According to the current installed capacity figures, some research institutes think the domestic PV installed capacity market will reach 52GW in 2017. Before communicating with some friends, everyone is very optimistic about the market next year. It is generally agreed that the domestic installed capacity in 2018 will be 50GW above, the following figure is an agency forecast 2018 market expectations, up to 60GW!
Fourth, electricity prices, component prices, the size of the installed triangle impossible
2018 photovoltaic benchmark price reduction is expected;
Only when the cost of PV system drops, can the project ensure a better rate of return in order to maintain a larger installed capacity (eg, above 50GW).
However, in the past few days, the bidding price of GD Power Investment Co., Ltd. sees that the prices of components in the first half of 2017 are not expected to decline significantly. Therefore, the cost of PV systems will not decrease as the cost of other auxiliary materials increases. The project yield will inevitably Lower investment enthusiasm will also reduce the 50GW installed capacity come from?
The following three scenarios:
1) PV benchmark electricity price dropped significantly, down by 0.1 yuan / kWh or more;
2) The price of PV modules declined slightly with the current price, with no expectation of a sharp decline (remained at above RMB2 / W);
3) PV installed capacity in 2018 surpassed that of this year and even reached 60GW.
The above three conditions may not exist at the same time!
