But 'people are not good day', unexpected events in 2017, one is ten years the price of silicon is always falling, rising this year, and out of stock, and the other is the cycle of memory prices into the skyrocketing , Causing them to heighten their forecasts one after another, with WSTS revised to a 17% increase in August and a 22% increase in IC Insight.
Since their predictions allow multiple corrections as the market changes, their final predictions are almost always correct.Obviously it may be very difficult to truly predict the state of the industry and to guide the operation of the business .
China's semiconductor industry and the global unsynchronized
The growth of the global semiconductor industry in 2017 exceeded most people's expectations, especially the booming memory industry, which holds the same golden rice bowl.
IC Insight forecasts a 77% ASP ASP increase for DRAM in 2017, resulting in a 74% increase in DRAM sales this year, the highest level since 78% growth in 1994. ASPs for NAND flash memory have grown 38% Resulting in a 44% increase in sales in 2017. Global storage growth is expected to be 58% and another 11% in 2018.
IC Insights estimates that DRAM market will reach US $ 72 billion in sales in 2017, making it the largest product in the semiconductor industry this year, surpassing the US $ 49 billion for the flash market by about US $ 22 billion. Due to the strong memory growth this year, semiconductor sales in 2017 Up 22%, of which memory accounted for 13%. Excluding DRAM and FLASH growth, semiconductor sales in 2017 only grew by 9%, which is clearly less than half of the overall growth of 22%.
The face of the global semiconductor industry, high-growth trend, the development of China's semiconductor industry appears to have no linkage effect.Analysis of the point of view there is a certain inevitability, because this year's main growth driver from memory, and from the Chinese semiconductor industry chain, memory layout has just begun, Not necessarily have a big sales by 2019. In addition from the global foundry point of view, this year's situation is not as good as last year.
Therefore, at the recent SMIC Q3 lawsuit, SMIC executives also admitted that its gross profit margin of Q3 was 23%, down from 25.8% of Q2 and 30% of Q3 of the same period of last year, mainly due to the commencement of construction The rate is low, only 83.9%.
SMIC is currently embracing two transition periods: the first is managing the transition, as is known to the industry, with the addition of Mr. Liang Mingsong; and the second is strategic transformation, which aims to make the product line broader and at the same time Vigorously develop advanced technology process technology to narrow the gap with international counterparts.
In addition SMIC with the industrial environment changes occurred in the following three changes, the first is to develop a large number of new manufacturing processes, a production ramp up process will obviously affect its gross profit margin; the second is the silicon Foundry average ex-factory price last year, the entire market has been in a state of shortage, support prices higher, and this year the entire foundry industry did not last year's boom, resulting in an average ex-factory price lower than the same period last year; the third is SMIC's capital Expenditure increases. The good thing is that some of these expenditures have been translated directly into productivity, yet at the same time they have also begun depreciation, leading to a drop in gross profit margin.
SMIC makes timely strategic readjustment and proactively marches toward marketization, fully embodies its upward mobility and gives the industry new hope.
Conclusion
China's chip manufacturing industry can not maintain an average annual growth rate of 20%, some ups and downs are completely normal at this stage all feasible methods are to promote and practice, which also summed up a lot of experience and lessons learned. Fundamentally, it is a "forefather planting trees, descendants cool things," the risk of investment, long cycle, but only the fruits of research and development can really fall on their own hands, there is no shortcut to go.
If there is any other "magic recipe" available, as SMIC Chairman Zhou Zi at the 30th anniversary of Walden International speaking, the success of the business elements, 10% of the funds, 30% is a good team, and 60 % Is to persevere, and then persevere in determination and confidence.