This year, whether it is north or overseas funds, are on the A-share consumer spending plate favorite.But we can see that, as some consumer stocks higher, the funding disagreement is also aggravating.From the field of subdivision, home Consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals and other consumer boards continued to receive funding concerns, the market outlook is expected to further shocks higher.
Household appliances
Strong performance is expected to continue
With the improvement of funding, the overall performance of the household appliances sector is better. During the 13th FYP period, the domestic appliance market will usher in a new round of consumption structure upgrading and product replacement in large quantities, and the industry fundamentals are expected to continue to improve.
Northeast Securities analyst Tang Kai pointed out that by the end of the year, color TV, kitchen appliances and other home appliances into the sales season, 'double eleven' and other fast-growing electricity and edible shopping Festival will also provide household appliances business in the fourth quarter to provide a good catalyst for business performance in the current Of the market style, the value and fundamentals become the core logic of investment, the market continued to focus on corporate earnings and endogenous growth, focusing on safety margin, underestimated value of blue-chip value is expected to remain relatively strong in the current market risk preference is still low With no obvious signs of change, the hot market is expected to continue its rotation in various sectors with certainty, so under this background, the performance of household appliances sector is still strong, with certain performance advantages in each sector, Growth also has some protection, the end of the valuation switch market is expected to continue.
It is noteworthy that, recently, home appliances to get the north of funding concerns, Gree, Midea and other leading group to obtain a steady flow of funds from the north.At the same time from the QFII point of view, Gree, Midea Group, the boss appliances are also in the third quarter have been Foreign jiacang.In the industry view, on the one hand, the better the fundamentals and lower valuation level of the appliance sector is an important factor to attract value investors; on the other hand, the continuous strengthening of investor behavior for large stocks The pricing valuation system has brought some changes.When joining MSCI, the behavior of overseas funds still reflects the investors' approval of the company's fundamentals and valuation, and the foreign capital has brought a certain premium to the deterministic asset allocation needs.
Compared with overseas leading companies, the net profit of China's home appliance companies is better than that of overseas leading companies, but the valuation is lower than similar overseas companies, which makes our country's home appliance companies get the overseas investors' pro-gaze. Or will make the valuation of China's home appliance leading enterprises and the leading value of overseas appliances are synchronized, which will make our home appliance revaluation.
In the long run, household appliances industry concentration will continue to increase, the industry leader to benefit from the degree of concentration and product diversification, or will continue strong performance of the three quarterly disclosure is completed, the third quarter of the main home appliance industry continued good growth Founder Securities analyst Wu Dongju said that from the advance receipts point of view, the short-term industry revenue is expected to continue the better performance, and with the export orders and domestic product price increases, the pressure on the cost and exchange rate is also expected to be gradually eliminated, optimistic about the industry profitability picked up At the same time, we will continue to recommend Gree Appliances, Midea Group, Qingdao Haier, Little Swan A, and Boss Appliances based on the certainty of leading performance, higher dividend, and cheaper valuation, etc. At the same time, we strongly recommend benefiting from the outbreak of wireless vacuum cleaners and domestic branded businesses High-growth Lake Electric.
Potential stock selection
Gree Electric Appliance (000651)
Performance growth worry-free
Company 2017 performance is expected to exceed market expectations, the characteristics of high growth, underevaluation, high dividend becomes increasingly prominent.Chai Tong Securities analyst Chen Ziyi pointed out that the reference company in the past during the performance of raw material price fluctuations, benefiting from a strong bargaining power, While most of the cost pressures were diverted by the price hikes downstream to the upstream, the gross profit margin was still affected to a certain extent, but the Company maintained the relatively stable net interest margin through its own expense rate control, while during the decline of raw materials, the Company's products The steady rise in prices pushed steady growth in net profit, and we expect the Company's revenue to maintain its high growth in the first half of the year under the low base and the scissors in the second half of the year, or to lower the upward revision cost of benefit-sharing, resulting in a rapid growth in profit for the full year.
Midea Group (000333)
Valuation has room for improvement
The Company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2017 increased by 61% from the same period of last year with a performance increase of 17%, exceeding market expectations. As the price of raw materials rose, the Company gradually raised the price of its products. At present, the Company can cover the pressure of rising raw material prices. In the third quarter The gross profit margin of the Company increased by 0.12% YoY in the future.With the further optimization of the product structure and the amortization expenses of KUKA, the Company's profitability is expected to rise in the future.Huantong Securities pointed out that the development of various businesses within the Group is excellent and the synergies will be In addition, the main business benefited from product upgrades and T +3 strategy, the company continued to improve operational efficiency, under the division of valuation, overlay KUKA robot business, the company's overall valuation is expected to reach 20 times the company to enhance the valuation of the future there is room, High safety margin.
Qingdao Haier (600690)
High-end product performance eye-catching
In the raw material prices and RMB appreciation double under the pressure of third-quarter gross profit margin is still slightly higher than last year, mainly due to product mix upgrades, high-end products accounted for the proportion of higher; GEA product gross margin higher GF Securities pointed out that the domestic market , High-end brand Casa Imperial products to maintain rapid growth in the first three quarters of revenue up 41%, and gradually expand the high-end market leader in overseas markets, the company revenue 50.74 billion, almost all of its own brand revenue.As a white lead, According to the data of Zhong Yi Kang, the market share of Haier refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, water heaters, range hoods and cookers has been improved to varying degrees in the first three quarters of 2017. The market position will be strengthened in the future as GEA Driven by the domestic business, the market share is expected to continue to improve.
Boss Electric (002508)
Outstanding profitability
The company is the leading domestic kitchen and electric appliance, the market share of its core products such as range hoods, gas stoves and sterilizing cabinets is the highest, and the market share of microwave ovens, steam ovens, electric ovens and small household electrical appliances is also the top three. Since the performance has maintained rapid development, operating income and net profit growth rate of 20% -50%. Gross margin has remained above 50%, higher than the industry gross margin of listed companies more than 20 percentage points higher; net profit margin continues to rise, from the beginning Of the 10% rose to nearly 20% this year, higher than the industry net profit margin of listed companies nearly 10 percentage points.Chuancai Securities pointed out that the company will increase R & D investment in the future, from the previous channel-driven into products and technology-driven In the marketing strategy, Stable development of a second-tier market, and actively layout three or four line market, and gradually open up market share.
Lake Electric (603355)
Own brand high growth
In the first three quarters of 2017, the accumulated foreign exchange loss was about 120 million yuan, and the exchange gain was about 40 million yuan in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the Company expects the first three quarters of the Company's performance to increase by about 30-35 %. Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the company for the leading domestic cleaner, advanced technology, brand and first mover advantage, the future will enjoy the industry's high growth dividend. The company is currently in its own brand early stage of construction, the cost of investment more, net margin only Is 10%. In the future, profitability is expected to increase substantially with the expansion of its scale advantage. Short-term factors such as the exchange rate will not affect the endogenous growth and optimistic about the continued high growth of the Company's performance. Valuation at the end of the year , The subject of scarcity has a valuation premium.
Little Swan A (000418)
Market doubled can be expected
CR2 will continue to improve in the future, benefiting from the oligopoly pattern, the leading bargaining power of the industry will be enhanced, and the gross profit margin will drive the company's net profit margin to continue to rise.With reference to the development history of Gree, Midea and Boss, Haitong Securities believes that future net profit margin of the Company will be improved , The performance of the rapid growth rate to maintain the company currently accounts for 20% of overseas revenue, well below the 40% of the major shareholder Midea Group's share of exports in Southeast Asia, very low volume of washing machines in India in recent years, rapid increase in ownership, 2015 To 8.5 units / 100. We believe that in the future, with the support of Midea Group's strategy of "global operations", the company's overseas sales are expected to achieve faster growth than domestic sales and the Company is more certain than 25% in the next three years.
Medicine
Can look forward to the valuation switch market
Regardless of the valuation switch, or stagflation consumer concern about the perspective of the sector plate, the pharmaceutical sector there are some investment opportunities.An analysis pointed out that for the moment, the valuation of the medical sector premium rate and institutional allocation is still at a more From a defensive point of view, pharmaceutical stocks have enough margin of safety, investors should focus on one of the sections.
In the medium term, investors are also advised to pay attention to the changes in the pharmaceutical sector valuation system.With the gradual expansion of A-share investors' international perspective and the mutual exchange and interoperability between the two places in the context of the LugangTong, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector The system is also undergoing restructuring.
On the news, China's pharmaceutical industry once again ushered in major policy dividends and encouraged innovation to become the mainstream of the policy.Previously, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Deepening the Innovation of Examination and Approval System for Pharmaceutical Products and Encouraging Innovative Medical Devices. Opinions "to encourage the innovation of pharmaceuticals and medical devices from the following six aspects: reforming the management of clinical trials, speeding up examination and approval of listing reviews, promoting drug innovation and the development of generic drugs.
Pharmaceutical innovation is not just the hype of capital market policies, but also the core driving force for sustained growth of the industry in the future.Yin Yin Ping An Securities analyst said that in fact, pharmaceutical innovation can be noticed today, many from the past decade Ideal and ambitious business of the past. In the past many years in the clinic before the early clinical drugs in the next few years to the clinical stage or even has been listed in the study of the structure of drugs has undergone tremendous changes in China's backward pharmaceutical structure will eventually The policy of encouraging innovative drugs promulgated will speed up the clinical and registration progress of these new drugs and medical products and materially improve the medical reform in our country so that in the light of the short-term market fluctuations, pharmaceutical innovation will be a sustained and fairly Long time hot industry.
Wu Wenhua GF Securities analyst said that innovation is the main line of medicine this era, the long-term will be born a large number of super bull stocks, continue to be optimistic about the performance of pharmaceutical stocks.It is recommended attention Changchun High-tech, Livzon Group, Ruikang medicine, Chinese medicine, Rui medicine, billion fan medicine, East China medicine, human welfare medicine, letter Litas, Yunnanbaiyao. Yifeng attention pharmacies, people.
As you can see, the performance of the pharmaceutical industry in the previous period was beautiful. On the surface, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector was driven by the innovation policies. In fact, most of the stocks that performed better were those with some drugs growing at a faster pace. Must be immediately reflected in the performance, but the market is willing to give a higher valuation.Changsheng Fan Merchants Securities analyst pointed out that along the 'innovation + speed up' this line, it is strongly recommended that the target is: Xin Litas, the company Is an undervalued innovative pharmaceutical company, starting next year, 1-2 first imitation or innovative drugs, only 21 times the price-earnings ratio in 2018; Tonghua Dongbao, steady performance 30% growth rate; Yunnanbaiyao optimistic about the continued rapid growth in the future; Tai Chi Group, mixed expected + fixed reserve price to provide margin of safety; common people, the national layout of chain expansion, although the short-term share price is suppressed, but the valuation is only 34 times.
Potential stock selection
Changchun Hi-tech (000661)
Performance growth is expected to speed up
The Company's growth hormone and biological vaccines maintained their rapid growth since the first quarter of this year and are in line with market expectation. The rapid growth of growth hormone under the background of high base of this year is the core driving force of the Company's outstanding performance. Meanwhile, the varicella vaccine is affected by the vaccine sales policy To direct billing to the terminal, but also brought a substantial increase in operating income and profits, the company maintained steady growth in other businesses.According to the company this year real estate projects will be submitted in the fourth quarter settlement, the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate the growth rate will be accelerated.Case Construction and Investment Securities pointed out that the company is a high degree of market interest in bio-drugs and biological products star enterprises, core subsidiary Kinsey Pharmaceutical is a leader in recombinant protein hormone products, the recent national innovation drug policy support, enhance market risk appetite.
Ruikang Pharmaceutical (002589)
Investment opportunities highlight
The company's instrument platform business expanded rapidly and completed the strategic plan covering 30 provinces across the country. Through the province's "direct sales of medical institutions + medical device full product line service" business model for inter-provincial copy, and actively build a national equipment distribution network, At present, the overall national structure has been completed. The value of equipment platform with the upstream buyers and end-customers continued to grow and upgrade in the future upstream bargaining power and upstream shares of proxy products will be a potential profit growth point.Shenwan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that the company The nationwide layout of the devices starting in 2015 will create 'Sinopharm Holdings' in the field of equipment. The market is still not fully prospective for the business model, strategic opportunities and opportunities for Ruikang's equipment nationwide, and we think it still faces significant Investment opportunities.
Yi Fan Pharmaceutical (002019)
Innovative varieties continue to enrich
The company recently wanted billion-fan international subsidiary of NovoTek replenishment of the company for the acquisition.Guohai Securities pointed out that this capital increase will help Suzhou billion-fan to enhance their own capital strength, increase company operations and production inputs, the company is expected to undertake more new formulations Variety production and sales of consignment products and the acceleration of the production side of the preparation sector have laid a solid foundation for the high growth of performance in 2018. The Company's outward mergers and acquisitions further promoted the transformation and upgrading of the Company's pharmaceutical preparations segment and the construction of short and medium- With the gradual improvement of the medical insurance catalogs and the promotion of tenders at the end of 2017, we expect that the Preparatory segment will usher in the first year of high growth in the period of transformation and upgrading in 2018, and the premium of the valuation of the innovative platform of Jianneng Long, a subsidiary of the Company, is expected to reach 2018 The core of new drug development and progress of the key time node fully reflect.
East China Pharmaceutical (000963)
Stable performance
The company is an integrated pharmaceutical leader in the integration of industry and commerce. The compound annual growth rate of commercial and industrial revenue in the past three years reached 13.80% and 23.95% respectively, both significantly higher than the growth rate of the industry. The steady performance has made the company a well-deserved pharmaceutical white horse . The company introduced through independent R & D and acquisition to speed up the formation of product clusters in key areas, focusing on the anti-tumor and diabetes layout, many of which are potentially heavy varieties. The company is expected to gradually enter the harvest period, follow-up development momentum full Ping An Securities pointed out that the company two The core product variety is not old yet, and the second-tier varieties have ample room for improvement. Meanwhile, the R & D pipeline has accumulated a great deal of momentum and is expected to continue its output growth momentum. A slight decline in 3Q17 results caused market concerns. However, we are still firm about the Company's continued healthy white road.
Letter Litas (002294)
Second-line varieties have heavy volume
In the first three quarters of the Company, the revenue growth of the Company was 6.23%, 8.79% and 13.85% respectively, indicating that the Company's revenue growth was on a quarterly basis. GF Securities pointed out that the Company returned to Guangdong market with clopidogrel and began to make incremental contribution. Sartha has just entered the national health insurance directory, with the implementation of the new version of Medicare, Alisartan revenue growth is expected to speed up in the fourth quarter.In addition, the company irisartan, API business continued to maintain steady growth.Private varieties Bivalirudin in a rapid heavy volume Stage, we believe that bivalirudin is able to penetrate rapidly due to its better efficacy and better adherence. The original product, clopidogrel, benefited from the increase in the number of PCI operations and the concomitant assessment of the substitution of imported products. In the future, 3 Year will still maintain a steady growth of about 10%.
Yunnanbaiyao (000538)
Incentive optimization brings new growth
In the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 18.0808 billion yuan, an increase of 10.56% over the same period of the previous year and a non-net profit of 2.431 billion yuan, an increase of 7.76% over the same period of last year. The performance was in line with expectation. Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that after the completion of the reform is expected to follow-up management of listed companies and remuneration reform will continue the direction of market-oriented and further enhance the enthusiasm of the company executives and core management staff The Company has the brand of Baiyao and its abundant industrial resources, which are expected to further enhance the business vitality and long-term operating space after being motivated and optimized.Considering that the Company has the unique competitive advantage of brand resources combined with superb management team superposition, Give a certain valuation premium.