From the brand point of speaking, although Samsung, Apple is still the core force of the global mobile phone industry, but Huawei and China Mobile Army Legion represented less and less distance between them, especially in the past two years, Samsung and Apple products The lack of innovation has given Chinese handset manufacturers huge market opportunities and imagination.
In the domestic market, the pattern of domestic mobile phone brands gradually became clear. The new pattern based on Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo became more stable. With the slowdown of music, Coolpad and the gradual clarity of the brand of mobile phone, Third-tier and small brands increasingly difficult day.
In the supply chain, with the concentration of mobile phone brands and the development of high-end marketing strategies, this year's mobile phone ODM's thighs are exceptionally difficult and have now become 'grab orders' ODM vendors have become increasingly competitive with major mobile ODMs, and mobile ODMs have now come into full competition with cost-effectiveness and supply-chain management capabilities such as competition for a single product.
In the core components, the rapid popularity of the full screen so that the entire touch supply industry supply chain unexpectedly led to the beginning of the second half of last year, layout 3D hyperbolic manufacturers miserable, but really can achieve full screen panel manufacturers are not many, its In addition, with hidden fingerprints failed to effectively break through the technical bottleneck, coating chip prices have also been killed below $ 1, fingerprint identification supply chain quickly entered the desiccation period.However, iPhoneX launched FaceID, is expected to face Recognition technology to a new height .......
So, bid farewell to the upcoming 2017-2018 mobile phone industry, what changes will happen? Let's boldly predict.
First, the global mobile phone brand tends to focus on the pattern, 'Hua Miviou' shipments continued to rise
From this year's market conditions, domestic handset brand manufacturers to produce a satisfactory report card.
According to the latest research report by market research firm IDC, global handset shipments in the third quarter of this year were Samsung, Apple, Huawei, OPPO and Xiaomi respectively.
Expected this year, the first four manufacturers little change, while the fifth will be generated in millet and vivo, anyway, the world's top five mobile phone manufacturers, domestic brands firmly occupy three seats.
Apple out of position, market share or Huawei will catch up
As the global leader in the mobile phone industry, the iPhone is in doubt this year.
iPhone8 release, setting a record of the worst sales record, but the iPhone has been three generations of products for no apparent change in appearance, innovation was questioned.According to statistics, in the third quarter, iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus sales accounted for only the whole iPhone sales of 16%, while the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus sales accounted for 24%, which means that the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus performance is less than two years ago, the iPhone 6s series.
In October of this year, Huawei's market share once exceeded Apple. With the release and listing of iPhoneX, the iPhone's sales ushered in a slight rebound. According to the latest data, the market share of the iPhone reached 12.5%. Huawei's market share was 11%.
Although iPhoneX is still amazing, so that Apple regained a bureau, but hard to hide the iPhone's lack of innovation, the next generation of products is still difficult to give high hopes 2018 expected market share is about to catch up with Huawei.
Samsung in China, India suffered Waterloo, China's market share will drop to 1.2%
Samsung has lost its say in the handset market since NOTE7, especially in the Chinese market, although the release of S7 and S8, once the Samsung mobile phone market warmed up, but the scattered people's hearts are difficult to withdraw from the market according to the company Strategy According to a report released by Analytics, Samsung's share in China's handset market was 2% in Q3 2017 and its share in Q4 would further drop to 1.6%, while Samsung's market share in China will continue to fall in the next year , To about 1.2%.
On the other hand, Samsung, which had dominated the Indian handset market for many years, encountered a strong impact from China's mobile phone maker Xiaomi this year.According to the latest news from foreign media, research institutes recently disclosed relevant information on the third quarter of the smart phone market in India, showing that Xiaomi and Samsung Electronics Is quite close, millet is very likely to become India's smart phone market in the future the first.Data shows that Samsung Electronics in the third quarter accounted for 22.8%, Xiaomi 22.3%, the two companies have only 0.5 percentage points gap .
Huawei leads the way: 2018 Estimated shipments will reach 170 million units
This year, the top five handset brands led by Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and Meizu further reflect that the five brands will also account for more than 80% of the domestic handset market and are expected to reach over 90% next year.
Huawei is still the leading brand of China-made handsets, with overall shipments expected to exceed 150 million units this year. The dual-brand strategy is particularly prominent, especially in the high-end market where Huawei's brand image has gained ground. Not only that, Living in the low-end market, in 2018, Huawei's shipments will continue to increase, will reach 170 million.
OPPO / vivo shipped steadily: 2018 estimated shipment of 120 million and 100 million
OPPO, vivo shipments soared in 2016, this year by the environmental impact of limited growth, but compared to many companies or have a good performance.According to the supply chain is expected this year, OPPO shipments at 110 million, while vivo is also 90 million or so.
OPPO and vivo next year, aspect is still overseas, after the depth of the past few years in Southeast Asia layout, the two companies have initially been recognized by the local market, is expected to be re-released next year in. On the whole, is expected in 2018, OPPO and vivo Shipments will reach 120 million and 100 million respectively.
Millet will be the biggest counter-attack: 2018 estimated shipment of 120 million
This year's biggest surprise than the recovery of millet 2016 millet shipments of only 60 million units, once dropped out of the world's top 5. Fortunately, with this year's flagship low-end market red rice mobile phone and high-end market millet MIX2, two-pronged approach, millet The overall shipment this year is expected to reach 90 million units.It is expected that in 2018, with the further increase of the full-screen market, millet is expected to become the biggest counter-attacker with a projected shipment of 120 million units by 2018.
Meizu: Strategy to abandon 2017, full sprint 2018
Melancholy branded split Meizu this year, major internal adjustments, the breakdown of high school low-end products Line, high-end business unit personally led by Huang Zhang, Meizu no longer have new product release this year, began full sprint 2018, was a small and beautiful pioneer, Meizu worth the wait next year.
Gold steady rise: 2018 estimated shipment of 50 million
In the mobile phone industry, "Old Cannon", Jinli has been known for its steady growth.Golden's goal is very clear this year, extending from the high-end business crowd to the young people. In this year's double-camera and full-screen war are accurate grasp of the market opportunities, M7 and S10 market response is good, this year Jinli mobile phone shipments will be close to 40 million units, with the strategic adjustment next year in place, is expected in 2018 a chance to break 50 million units.
ZTE: 2018 domestic market share continued to decline, overseas dazzling
Mobile phone industry Whampoa Military Academy.Although CNURCO has become history, but ZTE strong R & D strength can not be underestimated, despite the slow growth of the domestic market, but more active overseas markets.Currently, ZTE handsets in the domestic market share of less than 8 %, But in the US market has reached 12%, ranked fourth.However, in the Chinese market, ZTE is almost no chance to stand up again, is expected next year, market share will continue to decline.
Lenovo MOTO, overseas market recovery
Lenovo mobile phone brand this year will be divided into the MOTO, 'Lenovo' mobile phone brand officially ended.However, although the sluggish growth in the domestic market, but MOTO overseas market should not be overlooked, Mexico ranked first in the market share in Brazil second; and India and other markets in Southeast Asia and South America have a higher market share, wall wall incense development, signs of recovery next year.
Second, ODM industry pattern differentiation
As China's mobile phone brand smartphone shipments in 2017 will be further concentrated, mobile ODM industry pattern will usher in further differentiation.
For the first few major brands, OPPO, vivo and Jinli all started their research, and orders for Huawei, Xiaomi, Lenovo and Meizu outsourced projects have become the guarantee of shipments and profits of handset ODMs. However, due to the large volume of single-item shipments And for the ODM company threshold demanding, only Wen Tai, Hua Qin, and the German dragon flag and a few other companies can participate in competition for large client projects will further accelerate the ODM industry reshuffle. For small and medium-sized ODM companies , Due to unwarranted shipments and low profits, we must seek differentiated competition, market space gradually reduced, the future there will be a lot of ODM companies have to quit the competition.
In 2016, the domestic handset ODM shipment rankings showed that Wenteng topped the list with the shipment of 65,500,000 units, once again won the first throne. With 60,100 sets of units, Huaqin ranked the second with Dehe Longqi respectively 25.4 million and 24.5 million units.
And this year, with the further concentration of the brand, purely manufacturing enterprises have fallen behind the pace of development, but the value of platform-based enterprises further highlights, resulting in ODM's industrial structure will be further differentiation.Mobile phone brand maker Matthew The effect will further affect the ODM. The resources are getting more concentrated, the stronger the stronger, the bigger the bigger.
Wen Tai Technology is expected to dominate
With this year, Yin shares officially changed its name to Wen-tai technology, the first handset ODM was born at the same time, Wen-tai technology in this year also handed over a beautiful answer sheet.In the first three quarters, WenTai technology revenue 12.559 billion Yuan, an increase of 47.87%; net profit of 282 million yuan, an increase of 743.6%. At the same time since renaming, the stock rose 47%, the continued profitability of the future is widely optimistic.
In the field of mobile phone ODM, Wentech has become a veritable leading enterprise and has won the top of shipments for many years in succession. The clients include Huawei, Glory, Xiaomi, Lenovo, MOTO, Meizu, Asustek, 360, Skyworth, Stormwind, China Mobile And other major global brands to establish and maintain a deep relationship of cooperation in this year's mobile phone ODM overall poor environment, the situation contrarian shipments is expected this year shipments will reach 80 million, once again surpassing Husqin's 70 million , And gradually opened up with Hutchison and other ODM manufacturers the distance between.
On the eve of the arrival of 5G, Wentech has established deep cooperation with Qualcomm and China Mobile, and with the cooperation of Qualcomm and China Mobile, Wentech is expected to become the first ODM manufacturer to enjoy the 5G market dividend.
It is worth mentioning that, after the strategic cooperation between Qualcomm and Qualcomm reached a strategic cooperation last year, its platform type value is further revealed.In addition to handset ODM, Venture Technologies is also expected to become a new future in the field of VR, car networking / automotive electronics and notebook computers It is reported that Wen Tai Technology has been with the storm, Skyworth, charm, Paul miles and other customers to launch VR one machine, 360 ° panoramic camera and VR mobile phones and other VR products; Dongfeng, Kai Rui and other auto companies T-BOX car Machine products have already begun shipping; and Qualcomm jointly developed the first Qualcomm platform chip notebook will also be available by the end of this year; the future will be the introduction of intelligent electric vehicle embedded vehicle computing unit (core board), into the smart electric car industry chain.
ODM manufacturers further differentiation
In addition to Wen Tai, the rest of the ODM vendors in addition to the scale, there is no significant difference.
In terms of scale, Hutchison and Wentek Technology are relatively close and the overall volume is relatively large. At present, the advantages in terms of customer base, shipments, costs and supply chain management are obvious. The major customers are Huawei, Xiaomi, Lenovo, Meizu and TCL Other customers have cooperation, but relatively complex platform Huaqin, intel, Qualcomm, MTK, Spreadtrum and other platforms, the overall layout of the screen and 5G relatively slow speed.In addition, the largest mobile phone and tablet business research and development in Shanghai, Xi'an , Shenzhen, Dongguan R & D-related staff close to 3,000 people, R & D costs are relatively high.
Shipments with Demart machines are mainly focused on the Meizu project, and the first Moto C Series project with Lenovo will be mass-produced in March 2017. Due to the recovery of the resurgence outsourcing project, the shipment to ZTE will be reduced. Participate in Huawei smart machine project, but due to the transfer of the Xiaomi Red Note series project to Huaqin, the overall shipment risk is declining.
This year, the key components of supply or supply tension control and supply chain will be the biggest challenge ODM, the adjustment of overseas market policies in India will force ODM's business model to be adjusted in 2018 mobile phone ODM industry will further shuffle the process Accelerate, or will further affect the gap between the top five mobile ODM continues to widen.
Third, the new technology highlights
Full screen: penetration rate next year will be more than 50%
Although this year into a full screen battle, but the full screen is not a standardized concept for now, the full screen in the industry standard is: screen size increased from 16: 9 to 18: 9, the other screen to reach the proportion 82% .At present, the full screen mobile phone on the market is millet MIX / MIX2, Samsung S8 / S8 +, iPhoneX, Sharp S2, vivo X20, Jin M7, Huawei Mate10 Pro, recently OPPO R11S also joined the full screen combat battalion, The top four domestic mobile phone brands launched a full screen mobile phone.
However, from the product price point of view, the full-screen mobile phone price spans larger, ranging from 2999 yuan to 8388 yuan, and Samsung, iPhone and the domestic 'Wal-Mart' only in flagship products or special models to use, The greater the proportion of screen its cost means higher.
In addition, from a technical point of view, the full screen also belongs to the market scarce resources.Because of the larger screen ratio, the full screen not only requires special-shaped design but also with the CNC or laser panel-shaped cutting, and the larger the screen, which The smaller the alignment space, but also increased the difficulty of the design.Now we can provide a full screen LCD module manufacturers have together Thai, Royal View Optoelectronics, Wuhu Changxin and other manufacturers, but the limited capacity, currently only reached 100K the following small quantities In addition, a larger screen will also put other parts of the new requirements, but also need more camera, fingerprint recognition, handset, antenna and equipment factory collaboration, for brand manufacturers and ODM manufacturers Test their ability to integrate upstream and downstream resources.
According to the forecast by the professional agencies, the overall screen penetration in the smartphone market in 2017 will be only 6%, to 50% in 2018 and to 93% in 2021.
Dual photo: technical route gradually unified, will be in the high-end market to the low-end transfer
After experiencing a year of technology climbing in 2016, the current dual-camera technology has been in a stage of technological stability.
According to the data, in 2016, the global mobile phone makers with double-camera sales reached 75 million units, with a penetration rate of around 5%. Among them, about 45 million were shipped by major international clients, setting off a wave of dual cameras and driving more mobile phone brands Follow-up. In 2017, the number of dual-camera handsets will reach 242 million units, up 223% over the same period of last year, of which 135 million are for international customers and over 100 million for Android models with a penetration rate of 15%. Huawei, , Millet and other domestic mobile phones will become the main driving force.
(Source: China Industry Information Network)
Currently there are a variety of dual-camera technology line, and the product is in the early stages of import, the yield is still low, the total substrate yield of only about 40%, a total yield of only 70% of stent products; and the current application of more , Including fill light, bokeh, 3D modeling, etc., need to match different software solutions, the production process is more complex, with the unification of technology and application of a clear direction, is expected to double explosive will show explosive growth, penetration And the size of the market will rapidly increase, will continue to replace the single camera into the mainstream market.
It is estimated that starting from 2018, the technology of dual-camera market will become mature and will become the standard function of mid- and high-end models, and will gradually be transferred from the mid-to-high-end market to the low-end market.
Face ID / 3D Face Recognition: limited cost is too high, it is difficult to large-scale popularization, some flagship model of Android in 2018 will be used
IPhoneX this year with Face ID - 3D face recognition feature for the entire industry and one tremble.
Face ID is powered by a small, non-screen-covered area on the top of the iPhone X. This small area integrates up to eight components, except microphones, speakers, front-facing cameras, ambient light sensors, proximity sensors, etc. We are familiar with the part, but also integrated infrared lens, flood sensor (Flood illuminator), dot matrix projector.
Apple calls the entire system TrueDepth Camera System, and the entire system can be used for Face ID face recognition, as well as extended self-porting, animated facial expressions, and an overlay of AR effects.
Apple acquired PrimeSense for Israel at about $ 300 million in 2013. PrimeSense is arguably the most powerful 3D sensing technology company of the time, providing sensors and middleware that allow the device to perceive the surrounding three-dimensional environment, Interaction. The company claims to have the world's smallest 3D-sensing chip, can be used in mobile phones, TVs, tablets, robots and other devices.
Currently, there are three mainstream technology solutions in the field of depth perception: time of flight (TOF), structured light, binocular vision PrimeSense uses a structured light scheme, no doubt, an improved version of the scheme Apple also uses.
It is reported that at present a lot of module factory in the country are being tested for the next 3D vision in Andrews mobile phone application preparation.Currently, iPhoneX 3D vision initially successful next year, Andrews flagship machine must be on, or be opened Too big gap.
Now everyone is waiting for Qualcomm's 3D solution to mature. Qualcomm's solution has been developed since 2016. Qualcomm is responsible for algorithms and system solutions, while Wonderful is responsible for the core optical components. Currently, the main problem is that the solution is not yet mature enough, Modality is not enough, after all, Qualcomm's research and development time is short, the best algorithm company PS was acquired by Apple in 13 years, and Apple took three years to develop and achieve commercial.
The industry expects Qualcomm's 3D vision solution to start commercial as soon as early 2018, so some models will come out in the first half of 2018. However, due to the high cost of the 3D vision module, which is around $ 20, it is hard to be mass-market.
Body: 2018 metal body is still the mainstream, rising glass, ceramic limited
Prior to 2012, including the previous era of the functional machine, the main body of the mobile phone was mainly made of plastic material. Although various other designs such as metal and glass appeared during the period, plastic always dominated. In recent years, At present, the penetration rate of metal casing is close to 50%, which has become the leading design scheme in the industry.
However, with the era of 5G gradually approaching, according to the schedule, it is estimated that smartphones with 5G function will be available gradually in 2019-20, while the 5G signal will be shorter and denser, and the metal back cover will continue to be segmented Form, will be more ugly and difficult to achieve, while wireless charging and other new features is expected to gradually landing, the metal shield signal shielding the disadvantage will be expanding, non-metallic chassis design can effectively solve the problem of signal transmission, will further accelerate the phone case To the metal trend.
At present, Samsung, iPhone has introduced a glass body products, and domestic brands millet, Huawei not only introduced the glass body, in the more high-end products also uses a ceramic body.
However, it should be noted that due to the limited process of ceramic materials, it is difficult to form a large-scale use at present, while the glass cost is high, which is easy to contaminate the fingerprint and difficult to clean.
In addition, the overall price of 3D glass is still high, about 70 yuan per piece about the equivalent of 2.5D glass 3 times.Although the glass has been tempered, the border raised, but the probability of speaking, the glass phone It is still unforgettable; Moreover, cell phones exposed to the air all day long, it is difficult to completely block the small sand, over time, it is easy to be spent grinding.
Although some handset brands have introduced glass body products in 2017, the metal body will still be the mainstream of the market due to the mature technology and material advantages by 2018, while the glass material is expected to be used in some high-end products and will slowly rise. Ceramics There is limited upside.