In the cold year of 2017, China's air-conditioning industry embarked on a new level.Many air-conditioning dealers have told reporters that the cold year of 2017 is the best year for them since they entered the market.Xu Chun, vice president of Changjiang Securities Research Institute, provided a few days ago Statistics show that the first three quarters of 2017 air conditioner shipments of 69.83 million units, an increase of 55.46%; 2017 cold air conditioner shipments of 81.86 million units, an increase of 59.31%, a record high.
In the long term, the long-term peak value of the air-conditioner market in China will reach a magnitude as well as, in the recent two years, the market scale of the air- Against the background of the strong performance of online channels, by 2020, the online channel share of air-conditioner industry will reach the proportion and become the focus of the mainstream air-conditioner enterprises, data research institutes and trade associations to discuss the development of air-conditioner industry.
2017 New Year 'High' is real or not high
'History of the new high' concise and concise outline of the cold air conditioners in 2017 forced the situation.However, the recent Holyday 2018 global user forum, Xu Chun said the cold air-conditioning industry in 2017 set a new ' High 'Actual or not high, natural growth or the same result.
'2017 High-growth domestic sales of cold air conditioners, of course, although there are industry factors, but the channel inventory cycle in 2014-2016 on the performance of air-conditioning shipments also have a greater disturbance; if the gradual withdrawal of home appliances policy in 2012 as Base, giving single-digit compound growth in 2017 cold domestic sales exceeded 80 million units also only correspond to a compound growth of 7%, taking into account the growth of the air conditioning industry itself, this growth is not difficult to achieve; the same time, in 2017 high temperature Driven by the weather, it is also logical that the growth rate will further increase.
Indeed, after years of development, the air conditioning industry has become a very mature industry, the so-called weather and other multi-dimensional factors co-created the bumper harvest of air-conditioning industry in 2017. With the cold air-conditioning market in 2017 ended, In 2018 and the coming years, the market scale of air conditioning industry is very concerned by the industry.
In the view of Xu Chun, on the future of air conditioning industry, domestic short-term shipping worry-free .Xu Chun said his assertion has three main support points: First, the home air conditioners have a property of more than one machine, and There are multiple scenarios, the contrast, the domestic sales of air conditioners under saturated conditions should be at least double the refrigerator.Second, the current inventory of air-conditioning channels in the low stock replenishment move can be strong.Three, air-conditioned consumer spending in rural areas into the fast The development phase.Fourth, it is expected that during the period the real estate delivery situation is good to drive the demand.In the long run, long-term space for air conditioning industry is still in the domestic market.This is mainly based on two points: First, the current air conditioners in our country, both in rural areas or in cities Big upgrade space.Second, the product structure upgrade and home central air-conditioning as the representative of the rise of high-end consumer demand led to rising market demand; while in export, Xu Chun believes that although the current market size is still small in India and Southeast Asia, the consumption conditions are still not Is very mature, but its potential market space is larger, which provides a larger kinetic energy support for air-conditioning enterprises in our country.
2018 Cold Year, 2017 more than 80 million cold sales in the context of the background, the air conditioning industry will usher in much market size? Xu Chun said that it is estimated that the update amount of air conditioning saturation of 120 million units, with reference to this standard, the current air conditioning 80 million As a result, the scale of the station is actually far away from the saturation renewal volume, so he predicted that the air-conditioning industry in 2018 may not experience particularly rapid growth in the urban market in 2018, but the growth rate in rural areas will be higher than that in urban areas. . Affected by such factors as the average product price and the decrease in raw material costs, the growth of air-conditioners market in 2018 will be slower than that of 2017, but the overall market is still relatively optimistic.
'At present, China's air conditioner market do not need to worry about the first, the terminal demand is better than we think and second, the entire channel inventory at a relatively low level, which is the key to determining the future market.'
Rural market activation is the key to peak climbing
When the sales volume of domestic air conditioners reached 80 million levels in the cold year of 2017, there was a disagreement in the industry about the peak of the "long-term peak" in the air-conditioner market in China.
Yang Jie, chairman of Industry Online believes that both standing in the historical high of 2017 cold, or returned to the long period of 15 years, the trend of positive growth of air-conditioning market is real and clear.Overall, the manufacture of air conditioners is Focus on the production of global marketing, and in the production of the entire global air-conditioning in China accounted for 78% of the body. In other words, China's huge air-conditioning manufacturing scale to create the conditions for our air-conditioning exports, therefore, Yang Jie said In the long run, it is optimistic about the development of China's air conditioner market, but does not rule out the possibility of short-term fluctuations.
'In contrast, the growth of domestic sales of air-conditioning market will be more robust relative growth from the product point of view, there will be differentiated opportunities for development' Yang Jie said that the future of China's home air-conditioning will continue to grow in the long term Peak 'one billion' goal can be challenged, but enterprises still need to be cautious in the process of capacity expansion, while in central air conditioning, Yang Jie said that should take hold of new market opportunities such as the promotion of PPP projects.
On peak estimates, Wang Yunli, general manager of Hisense Air Conditioning also hold the same point of view, he believes that China's air conditioner market in the long-term peak of more than 90 million units without problems, breaking billion can be, but for the long-term peak will reach 120 million units of its Be cautious.
Wang Lei, vice chairman of China Household Electrical Appliances Association, said the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, there were 47.6 units of air conditioners in rural areas and 123 units in every 100 urban areas. If the number of air-conditioning units in rural areas reached the level of one hundred Residents have the level of ownership, then the rural market will add more than 100 million Taiwan market space.
How to activate the rural market demand of more than 100 million units? Wang Lei believes that the trigger point in the weather, pushing the point in the electricity supplier. "This summer the air conditioner market such a large amount, largely to the rural market this part is not universal Of the blank market was activated.At the same time, the electricity supplier sinking also accelerated the popularity of rural market air conditioners.In addition, the state beneficiary policy to solve the worries of farmers to make the rural market more purchasing power. 'In the urban market, Wang Lei said This year, the market performance in urban areas is good. Benefiting from the fact that air-conditioning enterprises continue to meet the needs of market segments in product technology innovation, differentiation has given consumers a new impetus for renewal, and technological progress has also stimulated consumers to renew their products.
'120 million units are the end of protection, may reach 150 million units or more.' 'Oaks Appliance Group CEO Leng Ling gave a more optimistic valuation for making this support element of high valuation, he said: Now the buying scene has undergone tremendous changes.In the past, there were many problems of information asymmetry, especially in the rural market, but now the rapid popularization of electricity market in rural areas, increasing the convenience of services, so that rural market consumers brand Cognition is getting stronger and stronger, which will speed up the demand for air conditioners in 34 markets. "At the same time, Leng Ling also said that many pain points of current users have not been fundamentally solved yet. For example, the biggest problem of air conditioners is the problem of easy cleaning. Enterprises need to focus Product innovation and structural upgrading.
As we all know, economic growth and market holdings are the two major factors affecting the scale of air conditioning.Zeng Xiao Cheng, chairman of Yangtze air conditioning, said the current air-conditioning in our country residents are still low, from a long cycle point of view, the long-term peak air-conditioning market in China may Higher than 150 million units, but from the short cycle, there will still be some fluctuations.
Forecast of the Proportion of Airline Online Channels in China in
2017 In the cold year, the rapid development of the air conditioner industry online market drove the overall market expansion of the industry.According to the data from Zhongyikang, in the cold year of 2017, the retail and retail sales volume of the online air conditioner market were respectively 16.46 million units and 45.6 billion yuan , Up 87.4% and 111.2% respectively. The share of retail sales and retail sales of air conditioners in the overall market reached 29.5% and 23.9% respectively.
About China by 2020, the proportion of online channel air-conditioning sales, a number of mainstream air-conditioning companies published their own views, although given the valuation is not the same, but without exception, said air-conditioning online channel will also account for Continue to rise.
'From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the online channel for air-conditioners in cold weather in 2017 accounts for more than 20% of the total market, the fastest increase in all channels.' Wang Yunli believes that by 2020, the proportion of air-conditioned online channels will increase to 40 At the same time, he also mentioned that factors such as product experience and other constraints on the online channel development, but in the future with the integration of online and offline channels, the boundary between the two may gradually blurred.
In the cold year of 2017, Oaks is a particularly eye-catching color in the air conditioner market, setting a record for the growth rate of domestic shipment growth, the growth rate of export sales and the sales volume of electricity suppliers. , Cold Ling forecast online channels will account for more than 60% of the overall market share.Why will give such a high forecast? Cold Ling said that online channels have two major advantages are unmatched: First, the purchase convenience Second, the price is transparent.As for the online channel relative offline experience in the disadvantaged, he believes that the installation of attributes should not be restricted air conditioning online channel development factor, in fact, the development of air conditioning is relatively large logistics attributes, Especially in the peak season when the outbreak of business, but in recent years due to e-commerce rapid logistics access, air-conditioning on the traditional channels of dependence is reduced.Lingling believes that with the Internet, especially the development of VR technology, the future air-conditioning online channel accounting It is possible to reach 80%.
'The online-to-offline ratio is more efficient and the efficiency of the offline channels is still unknown. But I think there is a relatively fast development of the electricity supplier that is certain, but the future is still full of variables.' When the end of the said.