ZTE Financial APP was informed that GF Securities Research reported that the semiconductor is a highly capital-intensive and highly technology-intensive industries, is the world power of the contested land.China as the world's largest consumer market of semiconductors, both from the regional supporting advantages or countries Will-level, the rise of China's semiconductor industry is imperative, the semiconductor industry chain are expected to continue to benefit.It is recommended to focus on a certain size of foundries SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) and the global semiconductor package Test Equipment Manufacturer ASM PACIFIC (00522).
The global semiconductor industry back to the uplink cycle
From the industrial chain point of view, the semiconductor upstream includes equipment and materials in two parts, midstream IC production, including 'design - manufacture - package - test' several links, the downstream applications are mainly concentrated in computers, consumer electronics, network communications, automotive electronics Other fields.
According to the types of semiconductor products, they are divided into four parts: integrated circuits (ICs), optoelectronics, discrete devices and sensors. According to WSTS statistics, in 2016, integrated circuit sales accounted for 82%, optoelectronics accounted for 9%, discrete devices Accounting for 6%, the sensor accounted for 3% .As the IC sales over the years accounted for more than 80% of semiconductor sales share, so the market generally refers to the IC generation on behalf of the semiconductor.
In addition, the ICs are classified according to different functional purposes and mainly include four categories: microprocessor (about 18%), memory (about 23%), logic chip (about 27%) and analog chip (about 14%).
At present, the global IC industry has two business models: Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) mode and vertical division mode.
IDM is from the design, manufacture, packaging and testing to sell its own IC products, both completed by a company's business model;
Vertical division of labor refers to the business model in which IC design, manufacturing, and packaging testing are undertaken by specialized IC design firms (Fabless), Foundry, and Package & Testing, respectively;
At present, the IDM model still occupies a dominant position in the world.In 2016, the revenue of top 20 global manufacturers accounted for about 80% of the global semiconductor sales, of which, the top 20 IDM manufacturers accounted for about 68% of the revenue scale, Fabless 18%, Foundry accounted for 14%.
In recent years, with the development of new generation of information technology in fields such as artificial intelligence, big data, internet of things, AR / VR, and wearable devices, the semiconductor industry is a cyclical industry with a high correlation between its development and GDP. , The semiconductor industry has re-entered a new round of business cycles.
According to WSTS, the world's semiconductor trade statistics organization, global semiconductor sales compound growth rate was 5.21% from 2003 to 2016, of which global semiconductor sales in 2016 reached 338.9 billion U.S. dollars, up 1.12% from the same period of last year. WSTS estimates that in 2017, the global semiconductor Sales will reach 396.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 17% year on year, by 2020 the entire market is expected to reach 400 billion US dollars in the market size.
According to WSTS statistics, in 2016, China's semiconductor spending was 107.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 32% of the global total, surpassing that of the United States, Europe and Japan and becoming the largest semiconductor market in the world. According to statistics from the China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA), sales of China's integrated circuits have enjoyed double-digit growth in recent years, with sales of ICs in China up 20.1% YoY in 2016.
However, on the whole, the self-sufficiency rate of the domestic IC market is still at a relatively low level, and the products mainly come from overseas imports.
IC material: domestic manufacturers into the fast lane
IC materials are mainly divided into IC manufacturing materials and IC packaging materials. IC manufacturing materials include silicon wafers and substrates, photomask, photoresist, electronic gas, CMP materials, targets, etc .; IC packaging materials, including layers Pressure substrates, lead frames, wire bonds, mold compounds, underfills, liquid sealants, visco-crystalline materials, solder balls and the like.
According to the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) report, the global market for IC manufacturing materials was US $ 24.7 billion in 2016 and the packaging materials market was US $ 19.6 billion, of which silicon wafers accounted for the highest share of IC manufacturing materials, reaching 32% , Silicon wafer and mask, electronic gas, CMP material, photoresist total accounting for nearly 80%, is the most important material affecting the IC manufacturing process.
Wafer is the substrate of IC processing, and from the development process of wafer material, it can be roughly divided into three generations: the first generation is represented by germanium and silicon; the second generation is mainly gallium arsenide and indium phosphide; Three generations of gallium nitride, silicon carbide, etc. At present, most of the wafer is still silicon as the main raw material.
According to the 2015 SEMI statistics, Sumitomo, Japan, SUMCO is the leading manufacturer of silicon wafer production industry, the two companies together accounting for about 50% of the market share %.
According to the SEMI report, the IC manufacturing material market in mainland China in 2016 was 6.53 billion U.S. dollars, making it the fourth largest IC manufacturing material market in the world after the Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
IC equipment: localization trend began to show
IC equipment is the upstream support device for IC production, IC equipment is basically needed in IC design, manufacturing, package testing, etc. According to different functional purposes, IC equipment is usually divided into IC manufacturing equipment, IC packaging equipment, IC testing Equipment, three categories. One of the largest IC manufacturing equipment, accounting for the largest, such as lithography, etching equipment, thin film deposition and other core wafer processing equipment; IC packaging equipment mainly bonding machine, Mainly include sorting machine, testing machine, probe station, suitable for IC design, manufacture, packaging the final test.
IC equipment industry has high technical barriers, the current US and Japanese manufacturers still occupy the absolute dominance of Applied Materials (ASML), ASIM (Tokyo Electronics, Lam Research) is the world's top four semiconductor devices Manufacturers, the market share of about 19%, 18%, 16%, 15%.
According to the SEMI survey, the market size of China's semiconductor equipment in 2016 was 6.46 billion U.S. dollars, up 31.8% from the same period of previous year and the fastest growth rate in the world, becoming the second only to Taiwan And South Korea's third-largest semiconductor device market.According to SEMI estimates, the demand of local Chinese enterprises for IC equipment will rapidly increase from 2018 to 2020. The estimated investment in IC equipment will be 10.8 billion U.S. dollars and 11 billion U.S. dollars respectively , 172 billion US dollars.
With the continuous improvement of market demand, domestic IC equipment manufacturers continued to increase R & D efforts. In the past two years, China has made breakthroughs in many key equipment areas.
IC design: domestic manufacturers emerge
IC design, Integrated Circuit Design, is the system, logic and performance of the design requirements into a specific physical layout process. IC design process is divided into specifications, hardware language description, simulation, logic synthesis, circuit simulation verification, Circuit layout and surround, circuit testing, photomask production, and several other steps.
According to IC Insights, the United States has the largest market share in pure IC design (Fabless), accounting for 62% of the global IC Fabless business in 2016. Qualcomm and Broadcom are the leading players in the IC Fabless industry, Accounted for 51% of the total revenue of the top 10. Among them, Qualcomm revenue in 2016 was 15.4 billion U.S. dollars and Broadcom revenue was 15.3 billion U.S. dollars.
Benefit from the needs of the domestic downstream mobile, communications and other fields, the competitiveness of domestic IC designers began to show.According to ICInsights statistics, in 2009 the global TOP50 Fabless business, only one Chinese mainland enterprises, and by 2016, China The number of mainland enterprises has reached 11, the combined market share has risen to 10%, of which, Huawei Haas, Spreadtrum has been among the top ten global Fabless.
IC manufacturing: Policy support is the largest domestic manufacturers to catch up
IC manufacturing is the process of etching the integrated circuit on the wafer. The IC manufacturing process includes the processes of surface grinding, cleaning, coating, multiple lithography, ion implantation, etching, heat treatment, decontamination, polishing, cleaning, inspection, packaging and the like .
At present, the world's leading manufacturers have developed process technology to 10nm level, TSMC, Samsung and other leading manufacturers have achieved 10nm process mass production, Intel, Grosvenott is expected to mass production by the end of this year.In addition, TSMC is the first to develop 7nm process technology .
According to IC Insights, Taiwan occupies the largest market share in Foundry, accounting for 73% of the world's total foundry sales in Taiwan in 2016. Among them, TSMC generated revenue of US $ 28.57 billion, accounting for 58% of the global total market share.
IC manufacturing is a capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry, which is the focus of national policies and funds, of which 12-inch fabs account for the largest proportion of the funds invested in IC manufacturing mainly because of the current global demand for 12-inch wafers, According to China's electronic net statistics, the global monthly demand for 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers is about 5.1 million pieces, and the mainland's existing 12-inch factory alone has a monthly output of only about 460,000 pieces.
The huge capital injection has led to the rapid growth of the domestic 12-inch wafer production line.According to the International Semiconductor Association (SEMI) estimates, from 2017 to 2020, there will be 62 new fabs in operation around the world, of which 26 Foundries in mainland China, accounting for 42% of the world total, while in the new 26 fabs, most of them 12-inch fabs currently built 12-inch fab capacity of about 63 Ten thousand, the future 12-inch factory in mainland China single-month production capacity will reach as high as 1.09 million.
The rapid expansion of domestic manufacturers also led to the rapid expansion of its own sales.As a leading IC manufacturing industry, SMIC and Hua Hong semiconductor homeopathic, market share has been increasing year by year, the two companies are now among the world Foundry Top Ten.
IC package testing: domestic manufacturers have a certain competitive strength
According to IC Insights statistics, ASE, Amkor, Changjiang Electronics Technology, silicon products for the world's top four IC packaging and testing companies .
With the advantage of lower labor costs, China has a certain degree of competitive strength in the labor-intensive IC packaging and testing industry, but also the most internationally competitive link in the IC industry chain in China.At present, the domestic IC packaging and testing industry is wholly foreign-owned, According to IC Insights statistics, domestic enterprises such as Changdian Technology, Huatian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics have entered the top 20 in the global IC packaging and testing industry. With the development of the three pillars of Sino-foreign joint ventures and domestic capitals, the domestic-funded packaging industry has formed a certain competitive edge. Domestic companies continue to overseas acquisitions or mergers and acquisitions, the future domestic manufacturers is expected to further enhance their market share.
Policies help speed up the process of semiconductor localization
In recent years, with the growing gap between supply and demand in the semiconductor market in China, the state has also successively introduced a series of policies to support the development of IC industry in our country .From the point of view of investment, ICIC now focuses more on IC manufacturing; In terms of investment strategy, the fund invests heavily in key enterprises in each industry chain. From the regional distribution, the investment in Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shenzhen accounts for 90% of the total investment.
The founding of major funds has greatly boosted the industry and society's confidence in the investment in the IC industry. At present, all local governments have also set up funds to support the integrated circuit industry. As of the first half of 2017, the scale of investment funds for integrated circuits established by local governments Has more than 300 billion yuan.
In the policy and fund promotion, the semiconductor industry has taken initial effect: in the field of IC materials, China has exceeded 12-inch silicon wafer technology, is expected to mass production by the end of this year. With advanced level of high-end targets, high purity chemical reagents, light In the field of IC equipment, domestic high-end lithography machines, etched machines and other equipment to achieve zero breakthrough, is gradually catching up with the international advanced level in the field of IC design, Haisi, Spreadtrum as the representative of the domestic Manufacturers began to emerge, the market share gradually improved; in the field of IC manufacturing, the country has exceeded the 28nm process, 12-inch wafer fab is also rapidly growing; in the field of IC packaging and testing, domestic manufacturers already have some competitive strength.
Concerned about the subject
As a highly capital-intensive and highly technology-intensive industry, semiconductors are a big battleground for the world's big powers, and GF Securities believes that China, as the largest consumer market in the global semiconductor industry, will welcome the semiconductor industry both in terms of geographical advantages and national volition To the best time to grow, the overall industry chain are expected to continue to benefit.It is recommended to pay attention to a certain size of foundries SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor and the world's semiconductor packaging and test equipment manufacturers ASM PACIFIC.
SMIC: the leading domestic foundry foundry
Founded in 2000, SMIC is the largest foundry in Mainland China and the fourth largest in the world, and is the only IC maker in the continent to break the 28nm manufacturing process. Currently, SMIC offers 0.35um to 28nm wafer generation Engineering and technical services.
SMIC recorded sales revenue of US $ 2.91 billion in 2016. Gross profit margin of the Company maintained at a relatively high level, with a 2016 gross profit margin of 29.2%.
According to the composition of product revenue, the proportion of advanced processes under 65nm is on the rise. From the perspective of downstream applications, the company's customers mainly come from the communication and consumer sectors, accounting for more than 85% of the total revenue.
Hua Hong Semiconductor: the world's second largest 8-inch wafer foundry
Huahong Semiconductor Co., Ltd. mainly focuses on the research and development and manufacturing of 200mm (8 inch) wafer semiconductors for applications ranging from 1.0μm to 90nm. According to IHS, Hua Hong Semiconductor is the second largest 200mm wafer manufacturer in the world Factories. As of June 2017 the company 200mm wafer capacity of 159,000 per month.
In terms of revenue and gross profit margin, the overall growth rate in the recent five years was as follows: In 2016, the company's revenue reached 721 million U.S. dollars and its gross profit margin reached 30.5%.
From the downstream application point of view, the company's products are mainly concentrated in embedded non-volatile memory and power devices for bank cards, bus cards, ID cards, IGBT and other fields.
ASM PACIFIC: The world's largest supplier of semiconductor packaging equipment
Founded in Hong Kong in 1975, ASM PACIFIC (ASMP) is the world's largest supplier of integrated and packaged devices for the semiconductor and light-emitting diode industries with devices used primarily in the microelectronics, semiconductors, optoelectronics and optoelectronics markets including die-attach systems, Wire bonding system, Epoxy system, cut ribs and molding systems, such as packaging and testing equipment.
In 2016, the Company achieved a revenue of USD 1.84 billion and a gross profit margin of 37.6%, of which revenue of the Company was geographically divided and revenue from China accounted for the largest share of 54.6%. According to the business, revenue from post-process equipment (mainly packaging equipment) accounted for Compared with the highest level of 50.6%. According to the market application, mobile, telecommunications and information technology, optoelectronics and automobiles are the major revenue sources of the Company, accounting for about 50% of the total revenue.
Main risks: the risk of the semiconductor industry boom again, the semiconductor can not break the technology bottleneck in the localization process, the downstream semiconductor sales less than expected risk, large fluctuations in the risk of RMB.