Rapid advances in AI technology and the rapid adoption of robots in various industries are making people increasingly worried about the problem of unemployment, and the development of technology has drawn people's attention to 'what can we do to ensure that robots will not take away jobs from their own hands?'
Bill Gates's call for taxing robots that take away people's jobs was opposed by mainstream economists such as Larry Summers, chief Treasurer at the World Bank and Treasury Department official, who argued that robots Is the creator of the work, the idea of taxing them is extremely wrong.Another controversial idea is to ensure that people's basic income, the idea is to let everyone in any case can get the lowest income protection , In order to eliminate the unemployment effect of science and technology.
In fact, the focus of these controversies is wrong.The job is not generated or lost by a single technology, the key lies in the use of these technical forces business model has changed.For example, Uber may focus on taxi software services, But its business model is a collection of multiple applications, including algorithms, cars and GPS, all built around a business model.
We can see a similar case from the record-breaking history of the last century. The recording technology of the 1930s did not in itself threaten the work of live performances, but the combination of technology with radio, record players and commercial modes of operation Leaving musicians to lose their jobs.The hotels, bars and pubs replaced live performances with jukeboxs.The jukebox costs less and does not have to meet the requirements of musicians who join a union, and can do it over and over again without an order Repeat playing.
Earlier music recording technology has thrown off some of the live musicians and damaged their intellectual property, but the technology does make a huge profit for the music industry as it attracts a wider class of society. Those small bands and some musicians in big markets are able to reach a niche audience with this recording technology and more importantly, the spread of this technology allows new music factions to emerge and eventually enter the mainstream market, such as pop jazz.
Although history helps us to understand the past, it has no guiding effect on future trends, because there is a fundamental difference between the technologies that led to the industrial revolution in the 19th century and the technologies of today. Given the global nature of the economy, technological change The rapidity of technology and the uncertainty caused by the proliferation of technology, the impact of technology has become very strong, and we can hardly predict where new ideas will emerge. The emergence and loss of jobs need to be considered in the context of overall business.
Four major differences exist between music recording technology and current robotics: First, robots are accepted more quickly than music recording technology, and competition in the industry forces entrepreneurs to focus on and use technologies that keep them leading the industry. For example, Chinese manufacturing enterprises have become one of the fastest-growing groups of industrial robots in the world in response to wage increases.
Second, the impact of robots is likely to cause widespread concern because workers fear that their jobs will be taken away by robots, in part because many leading companies rely on suppliers located in different regions and countries, for example, Boeing The company's supply chain comes from the United States, Europe and many other parts of the world.
Thirdly, the progress of the robot shows an exponential growth, while the speed of human learning shows only a slow linear change, the learning speed of the robot can be doubled in a short period of time, and the learning speed of human beings grow slowly, because the technology becomes more The richer and the robot can learn to improve the algorithm.For example, 3D printing technology has benefited from the progress of digital technology, and now it can achieve a variety of applications from engineering to medicine.More new technologies appear, appear The broader the prospect of new applications, many inventors are beginning to take advantage of existing technologies in entirely new ways.
Finally, the impact of automation technology can be felt in a fraction of the time, increasing public concern and reducing the room for adaptation, largely because machine technology has reached a high altitude and learning to perform new tasks far outpace The speed of human retraining.
What we need now is an inclusive social policy that will enable faster adoption of new technologies, greater support for new industries and the negative effects of poverty and inequality brought on by new technologies. In-depth consideration: How to combine social system and technology into a fairer and more flexible economic system.