Recently, the International Powertrain, Fuel & Lubricants Conference held by SAE, Tsinghua University's State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy Conservation, 'Future efficient engine clean fuels' seminar was held in Beijing. Tightening of emission regulations and multi-national banned fuel The voice of the car makes the situation of traditional internal combustion engines, especially diesel engines increasingly difficult.What is more room for internal combustion engines in terms of efficiency improvement and emission reduction? Can the development of electric vehicles meet the market demand? From CATARC (China Research Center of Automotive Science and Technology, Tsinghua University) ), The United States Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Saudi Aramco, Mazda, Geely, Weichai and other agencies and business representatives made their own voices.
2040 engine share over 85%?
Alhamahmet Hoogert, CTO of Saudi Aramco, which specializes in oil business, said that by 2040, the penetration rate of energy-saving and new energy vehicle technologies will reach a relatively high level. However, in the medium term, With the increasing number of clean energy vehicles, the load on the power grid will become heavier and heavier. From the perspective of total life cycle, carbon emissions are on the rise. In this case, using efficient engines helps control carbon emissions .
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Huhhot believes that the optimization of internal combustion engine has great potential, and this potential is not enough attention, 'although some people say that the internal combustion engine has reached the ultimate in emission reduction and efficiency improvements, but the fact is not the case, there is a long period The road to go, the internal combustion engine can be further optimized.
In an interview with China's auto newspaper later, Huo Huaide said: 'From the results of our experiments, there is still great potential for internal combustion engines to reduce emissions and improve energy efficiency. We expect that by 2040, the internal combustion engine will still be the transportation The main driving force of the industry, probably account for more than 85%.
There are no winners in 2025
In the short to medium term, is the world of combustion engines in 2025 or is it from an electric car? Neville Jackson from Recardo Consulting believes: 'No, maybe 50 years, 60 years, 70 years after the winner can be decided, but 2025 There is no winner in the year, the technology is not in place.
At present, the EU, the United States, China and other countries and regions have set their own targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, for example, the EU requires all member states to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 compared with 1990; the United States also proposed to 2025 The annual greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 26% -28% from 2005 and by 83% by 2050. Of course, it is hard to say whether the U.S. emission reduction will continue after Trump took office.
Concerned about the air quality, various countries put forward their own response measures with different details but are consistent in the direction of phase-out of the internal combustion engine.For example, the EU is considering the proposal of compulsory introduction of zero-emission vehicles from 2025 to 2040.
In response, Neville Jackson said although electric vehicles and hydrogen-fuel vehicles appear to be clean, their emissions may be higher than those of diesel vehicles in terms of their full-life carbon footprint, and the subsequent recycling of batteries is also a big issue. Point did not attract enough attention to the policy.
'Electricity and internal combustion vehicles will be basically the same in terms of costs between 2025 and 2027. The key lies in infrastructure.' Neville Jackson also pointed out that heavy-duty trucks are required to carry 20-30 tons of batteries , Effective cargo volume is only about 12 tons', not cost-effective.
Zhenhong Lin, a senior researcher from Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the United States, analyzed the promotion of energy-saving technologies from the perspective of consumers and pointed out that at present the improvement of vehicle fuel economy is mainly driven by policies, but if only the fuel economy is increased , While others will not change and even vehicle prices will rise, consumers will not buy it, and he predicts that oil prices will remain low for the next three years, and consumers will be more price conscious than fuel economy.
Internal combustion engine and electrification opposite? NO
Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy of Tsinghua University, said that the internal combustion engine is facing many challenges such as supervision and limitation of fuel efficiency, while the electric vehicles need to be improved in driving range, cost and durability, and the two should be balanced , The current policy environment for the internal combustion engine is not too friendly, but it is necessary to exist.Zhao Fu Quan shouted in the hall: 'Do not give up ICE (do not give up the internal combustion engine)' should be common development.
Zhao Fuquan
Zhao Fuquan also pointed out that the future of fuel cell vehicles will be promising, but now there is still a long way to go, is expected by 2030, fuel cell passenger vehicles can reach 100,000, and fuel cell technology in commercial vehicles, especially trucks The prospects will be better.Pure electric technology due to heavy battery, less cargo, not very practical in the field of heavy vehicles.
So far, the United Kingdom, France, India, the Netherlands and other countries put forward a ban on the sale of fuel trucks, which also makes the automobile and related industries quite tense.However, Huhhot think it unnecessary, he said: 'We do not think the government is abandoning a fuel truck, Instead, there are still internal combustion engines on hybrids, and we do not think it will be possible to fully utilize electricity-powered vehicles, neither of which is capable of supporting the government's ban on fuel vehicles, no matter the current endurance capacity or the infrastructure construction.
According to Huhhot, electrification is part of the transportation solution and is not opposed to the internal combustion engine. It can even be said that electrification has promoted the improvement of internal combustion engine efficiency. The advantages and benefits of both should be combined to produce the most efficient vehicle.
A representative from China Automotive Technology and Research Center pointed out that taking China as an example, to achieve the goal of 5L / 100km by 2020, it is impossible to rely solely on internal combustion engines. New energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, must be developed and more Technology mix.