Held in Hangzhou on November 10-12, 2017, the 'Global Future Travel High-level Forum & International Exhibition' (GFM2017) was held in Hangzhou on October 12-12, 2017. At the meeting, China Automotive Technology and Research Center Liu Bin, chief expert and director of the Research Center for New Energy Vehicles and Fiscal Policy of the Center for Political Science and Research, delivered a speech on the theme of 'Global New Energy Vehicle Development Strategy.' He pointed out six trends that may emerge next in the NEV policy and, in this regard, Business advice.
China Automotive Technology Research Center chief expert, political research center of new energy vehicles and tax policy research director Liu Bin
The Proposal of Enterprise Strategy from the Perspective of New Energy Vehicle Policy
First, the policy changes in the course of analysis
I am doing new energy automotive policy research, sub-forum theme is 'global new energy vehicle development strategy'. We do policy research process, there are many business friends, especially strategic planning friends asked me some questions, these problems can It is classified into four parts. The first question is about the future development of new energy vehicles, especially the question of whether the government will control the economy after 2020. The second question is how the government controls this issue. The third question is why the government So the question? The fourth question, other people's government like the United States, Germany, the government is how to manage? This problem is more, I also very difficult to answer .In the first half to open a meeting in Zhuzhou, the host also throw the problem Gave me, is the government or policy, what is the relationship between business? He also asked me a similar question, I will explore this answer, the process of exploring this answer suddenly see WeChat which has a lady drying a PPT, she said Why do we say that many people ask the government these questions? For a moment, they think the government controls less and the government considers it much longer, perhaps because she regards the government as a boyfriend, So I ask a couple of questions like this: How do you leave me alone? Do you mind me? Do you explain it to me? Look at other people's boyfriends.
Therefore, I think our understanding is different in the relations between the government and the enterprises. Actually, as an enterprise affected by the government, we have too many expectations about the government. I think we must first look at the characteristics of the government as a boyfriend. I comb a moment, there are four characteristics.The first characteristic, the government policy tools in the new energy vehicles support process is very large, from the original few tools evolved to the current superposition of a number of policies.This boyfriend in the new energy vehicles The characteristics are multi-gold, there are many fiscal and tax support, but also a lot of privileges, such as free purchase, free limit line.The second feature, the promotion of the department, from the initial less to now a lot, that is, our business may face more than Is one, but many, so let's hard to deal with the third characteristic, the idea of government support from the previous Pratt & Whitney, as long as you do to support, into a merit, which means that the government is picking. Four characteristics of the government tools used by the simple combination of rewards and punishments, that is, he may now sing white and black, and sing the black face precisely because of these four characteristics, It makes our business feel more troubling to deal with.
Specifically, let's sort it out to see some changes since China's support for the development of new energy vehicles in 2009. We can see this timeline, over time, our country has introduced a number of policies in the superposition, especially in 2013 After the demonstration and extension of the project was extended to the whole country, the support of local governments also increased strongly. At the same time, the means of the state continued to be renewed.
The second characteristic, we take a look at the promotion of the department, in 2009 or before may only the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance and a few other 2-3 departments to promote the 2013 energy-saving and new energy vehicles development inter-ministerial joint conference system Promoted into 18 departments to promote some of these 18 departments did not care about the original car, but now may be trying to introduce various measures to promote the development of new energy vehicles.
The third feature, the principle of support from GSP to merit, can be said that from 2014 to 2015, as long as the production of new energy vehicles for sale, the country will give you support.Adjustment and admission rules in 2017 subsidy policy Released as a sign, the policy shift has been more than just your production I give you. You produced, if the product is not good I will not give you support, we not only want you to buy, but also you use, for example ran 3 Million kilometers can be.
The fourth feature, the implementation mechanism can be said before September 2017 marked by the double integral release, before that country or place for the development of new energy vehicles are carrots reward policy, you do, you sell I'll give you a reward. If you do not do anything without any loss, there is no punishment, but after the launch of the 'Double Credits' in September, making new energy vehicles has become an obligation of all automakers, including fuel-car companies. If you do not To, may be transfusion to do new energy vehicles business.
In the evolution of these four characteristics, the industrial situation has undergone major changes, that is, from about 2013 onwards, technology and products are still subject to controversy or criticism, evolving into the current traditional car prices and outside the industry Capital influx, the industry is in the development of the outlet.
Second, affect the strategic choice of the business policy trends
This is a feature of the past, how to change the next policy? I summed up a possible six trends.
The first trend, the future policy will serve a multidimensional goals so far, the main purpose of the development of new energy vehicles in China is still based on industrial development and support for technological innovation as the main line in the future with the environmental pressure, low-carbon development requirements will be Like Germany, the European Union or California in the United States, have to promote the development of zero-emission vehicles in China reached 5 million by 2020, I think clean power, battery recycling must be on the agenda, or industrial development problems Will be more obvious.
The second trend is that the future policy will be a dynamic one. In fact, since the new energy vehicles were introduced, the past ten years of industrial policy have been gone. From 2009 onwards, including the planning of subsidies Policies, including investment and access policies are adjusting .I concluded that the policy has three years itch, can be implemented almost three years, may be new .For example, in 2009 the state introduced the industry and restructuring and rejuvenation plan, 2012 Year plan for energy-saving and new energy vehicles was introduced, and mid- and long-term plans were issued by 2017. The frequency of acquisition subsidy adjustments is also very high, adjusted in 2010 after the introduction in 2009 and again in 2014 after the introduction in August and September 2013 , The introduction of the future in 2015, and the introduction of a new subsidy policy in 2017, involving the possible adjustment of monetary policy, may be more frequent. From the industrial management point of view, the access rules promulgated in 2009 and then have to be adjusted by 2017, Order No.215 of 2015 is the time when less than 3 years has passed since the establishment of a new pure electric vehicle passenger car management regulation, which has been studied, adjusted and regulated in the future. We will still continue to adjust a dynamic situation.
The third trend, the implementation of the main body, I think the future of the Ministry of Public Security issued a license plate for new energy vehicles as a symbol, may evolve to rely more on cities and traffic management departments to promote. Rely on the special plate of new energy vehicles to the country , You can explore the introduction of special lane access, low emission area, unlimited lines, free cross-bridge toll, special parking, use of incentives and other support measures.
The fourth trend, the policy orientation, is from the attraction of resources into the gathering of dominant resources, before may be the industrial structure policy, hope that social capital to new energy vehicles investment in the future mainly to industrial competition in the industrial structure at this stage, if That enterprises are relatively backward, the government will give some protection, to the stage of industrial competition, competition is competitive, if the business is weak, not only in the market will be eliminated, while the government may also accelerate the process.
The fifth trend, policy environment, domestic and international policy environment will be relatively large changes the day before yesterday is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the adjustment of the automotive industry two information is to free trial in the free trade zone and gradually Appropriate reduction of tariffs as a sign, China's automobile industry will be more open to meet the global competition and cooperation.For the current business, the external environment more partners or competitors will make the company more competitive pressures, while the government new The uncertainty of the policy of the energy automobile industry will increase. The government has no more experience to learn from under the condition of an open economy. He will ask himself whether I need to control it or how to manage it. .
Sixth trend, I added a question, the relationship between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, the morning was also mentioned, the ban on fuel trucks. I think the relationship between new energy vehicles and fuel trucks, we are in the strategic choice of the enterprise To be considered good, do not be exaggerated remarks affected only the car with a variety of reasons for energy, it means that the development of the industry needs energy-saving and new energy vehicles on both legs to walk.I am doing new energy vehicles, I hope everyone Invest or establish their own new energy vehicle development strategy.On the other hand, I also speculation in stocks, in the process of stock, when everyone is making money, go up to the top, it may mean that you should be out, Otherwise, it may be a mistake, so I think fuel-efficient technology is still an important direction for development. In the future, some restrictions may be imposed on fuel-efficient vehicles in some areas and some cities. However, it is not advisable to ban the entire country .
Third, the strategic choice of enterprise development
Based on the above six trends, I have any suggestions on corporate strategy?
First, in the choice of the direction of development, enterprises should choose whether to follow the policy or follow their own development to choose from.If you follow the policy, you can enjoy the policy dividend, but also enjoy the policy to you If you say that you follow the market first to develop yourself, such as the vision of some companies in the morning, for the development of great vision, you may be affected by the problems brought about by technology, innovation, research and development, product type, Policy will be less troubled.
Second, with regard to the choice of technology route and the traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, I suggest that enterprises should pay attention to the strategy of new energy vehicles while still not giving up the progress of traditional energy-saving technologies. Only in this way can we have a better The future of diversification and the future should not be a unipolar world.
Third, in the context of openness, under the background of opening up, new energy vehicles were also the global industrial development. The resources for talents, technologies and industrial chains in the strategic choice of enterprises should rely more on the global resources and at the same time Consider the opponent or partner, it is necessary to consider the competition, but also more cooperation.
Fourth, our theme is the future of travel, our business strategy must also consider the future application scenarios, the future application scenarios must consider the large energy, transportation, we must serve this to carry out their own business strategy choice.
Finally, I summarize my point of view, I think companies in the process of doing the strategy can be some of the two dimensions of differentiated considerations.If the more powerful enterprises, set long-term vision and goals, he should establish short Medium and long-term strategy, he should be less affected by the short-term policy, of course, he should meet the requirements of government compliance, but also should establish a diversified technology route.If the more powerful enterprises, he focused on short-term goals, He should establish the long-short strategy of combining goals, he should focus on policy changes in order to seek maximum support, but in the search for short-term policy support process, he should also consider the costs and benefits of his If we say that a relatively weak Enterprises, he is more concerned about the short-term goals, he naturally will be subject to policy, and perhaps to establish a single technical route more useful to him, and focus on the breakdown of the market to survive.If the company's strength is relatively weak, Focusing on long-term goals, I think we should focus on the development of technology and should focus on differentiated competitive strategies, The more use of external resources to make up for their lack of.
My share here, just some thoughts, not necessarily correct, please correct me a lot of leaders and experts.