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1. Universal wafer 12-inch production capacity by the end of 2019 was robbed of light;
Set micro-grid news, the world's third largest semiconductor silicon wafer global crystal held a conference on the 13th, optimistic about the next three years, the global semiconductor silicon wafer is still in short supply, Global Crystal 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity by the end of 2019 has been pre-emptied, 8-inch silicon wafer to the first half of next year also full, at the same time, the phenomenon of stockouts also toward 6-inch products.
Silicon wafer is an important raw material for the semiconductor industry, including the TSMC, UMC, Samsung, Intel and other manufacturers or foundry chips for customers, all need silicon wafer. With the silicon wafer out of stock, the industry's rush rush Among them, TSMC, Samsung and Intel have been affected by the large-scale and long-term good supplier relationship with silicon foundries. However, the second- and third-line fabs and emerging companies are afraid to grab the material and impact the production problem.
Global Crystal benefited from this wave of silicon wafer out of stock and price increases, global crystal spokesman Li Chongwei said that according to research institutions statistics, by 2021, the global 12-inch silicon wafer market demand will maintain the growth trend is expected this year To 2021 in five years, the compound annual growth rate of about 7.1% during the 8-inch wafer compound annual growth rate of up to 2.1%.
This wave of good market conditions, mainly related to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, new capacity in the industry is limited, but the rapid rise of the mainland wafer fab, driven by demand, the silicon wafer in short supply .Li Chongwei said 12-inch wafer fab main demand from advanced Logic chips and memory and image sensors; 8-inch from the Internet of things, automotive electronics, power management ICs and image sensors.
He analyzed that 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity in the next few years each annual growth rate of 5% growth, the current monthly global production capacity of 5.5 million, equivalent to an annual global new 200,000 to 300,000 production capacity, the global crystal last year 12 Month merged into SunEdison, catch this train, operating energy began to heat up growth.
Li Chongwei said last year, silicon wafer per square inch price of 0.67 US dollars in the first quarter of this year rose to 0.69 US dollars last quarter reached 0.76 US dollars this year, although prices rose quarter by quarter, is still below the 2009 average of 1 US dollar performance on behalf of the price There is still room for growth.
2 next year, Apple 8-core A11X will use TSMC 7nm process;
Apple's new 8-core A11X Bionic application processor for next year's new iPad Pro, and has completed the design tape (tape-out), the industry news, Apple A11X will be the end of the first quarter of next year or early 2, began TSMC's 7-nm projectors and TSMC's next-generation integrated In-Wafer Package (InFO WLP) process are expected to be TSMC's first mass-produced 7-nanometer chips.
In the fourth quarter, Apple's 10-nanometer A11 Bionic application processor delivered heavy volume and pushed TSMC's consolidated revenue in October to hit a peak of 94.52 billion yuan and hit a record high for a single-month revenue. However, according to the device industry, TSMC and Apple co-operate The new generation of A11X Bionic application processors, which have finalized the chip design, are expected to be mass-produced in a 7nm process next year and will be available in the 2018 version of the iPad Pro.
Compared with the 6-core architecture of the Apple A11 application processor, the A11X application processor uses an 8-core architecture design, including the 3-core Monsoon core and the 5-core Mistral core for low-power computing. The M11 also includes the M11 coprocessor Core and the core of Neural Engine for artificial intelligence to create the core, using a new generation of InFO WLP packaging process.Industry who pointed out that A11X will be Apple's first 7-nanometer process chip production, is also expected to be the first production of TSMC 7 Nanochip.
From the development of A series of processors in recent years, there has been clear process technology miniaturization and architecture upgrade from the beginning of last year.Apple's 4-core A10 Fusion processor in 2016 adopts 16 nanometers, but the A10X Fusion processor upgrade the process to 10 nanometers, the core architecture is optimized to 6. Because of the A10X training in the advanced process first, so the second half of this year launched the 6-core A11 Bionic processor in the 10-nanometer Pull up faster.
From this point of view, early next year launched the A11X Bionic processor, the process will be upgraded to 7 nm, the core architecture is optimized for the 8. If Apple can smoothly finish the learning curve of 7-nanometer process, launched in the second half of 2018 A12 The processor is expected to be the fastest speed of production of 7-nanometer production in this context, the Apple A12X processor will be cast in early 2019, will be the first ultra-violet (EUV) 7 + nano-chip process .
For TSMC, due to 10nm and 7nm device sharing rate as high as 90% of this year's 10-nanometer process from the completion of R & D to mass production of the promotion of the project was very smooth, mass production for early next year to lay a good foundation of 7nm, so next year No. 1 Season 7 Nano will be on schedule as the amount of high-volume, the end of the second quarter is expected to start Note revenue and TSMC 7-nanometer orders much better than 10 nanometers, many 16-nanometer customers have skipped 10-nanometer generation, direct use of 7 nanometers With the 7-nanometer production capacity, TSMC's revenue is expected to hit a record high next year.
3. Memory Price behind: Samsung and other memory manufacturers strategic change;
From the latest data, the global memory industry output soared to nearly 20% annual growth this year, lower than the level in recent years.Flash market price fierce month, the memory contains PC memory, server memory, mobile memory three Product categories, prices are mainly concentrated in the PC memory.
PC memory is ushering in unprecedented price gains, the current contract price of DDR is only 30 US dollars early head, but the spot price has reached 42-43 US dollars, the short term such a situation will continue.
As an oligopolistic market, memory chip prices soar behind Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology and SK hynix memory manufacturers are experiencing a more coherent strategic shift: they are shifting production capacity to more profitable server and mobile memory Business, and memory manufacturers will give priority to meet the needs of HP, Dell and other large customers, and do not mind the spot market prices, so the formation of this round of price crazy.
Mabul Consulting expects next year memory industry is still dominated by the three memory factories, the production capacity in the factory reluctant to increase substantially, the opportunity to maintain the high water level in the first half of next year, the memory market is still in a tight supply pattern Trend.
However, the variables still exist and the oligarchs seem to have changed their strategies in a consistent fashion.Samsung Electronics and SK hynix recently started to plan to expand DRAM production capacity, which means there will be a balance of supply and demand in the memory market even oversupply in 2018-2019. This is exactly the key stage for the mass production of the domestic memory-related manufacturers, and the downward price trend tends to be very unfavorable for the new entrants. Under such a situation, it may take 3-5 years for domestic manufacturers to occupy a place in the world.
Strategic change
The pursuit of profit is the direct cause of the strategic transformation of the three major plants.From the product gross profit margin, gross profit margin of mobile memory and server memory has reached 50-60% compared to the PC memory that has been at 30-40% gross profit margin. Among them, mobile memory is used in smartphones, and the stock in the global market has always maintained the current level. The server memory application is more extensive. With the development of emerging markets, the server memory will have a broader market prospect.
Strategic changes in oligarchs will not have an impact on major brand manufacturers such as Hewlett-Packard and Dell, as the upstream will give priority to meeting the needs of large customers while at a disadvantage to small and mid-sized brands, while the price will be transmitted to consumers, but consumers PC machine price is not sensitive, the real impact is the consumer of their own PC assembly.
According to official sources, Samsung plans to expand DRAM production capacity at its Pyeongtaek factory today. On October 29, SK hynix also announced that it will expand DRAM production capacity in Wuxi, China. The planned expansion of oligarchs is likely to ease this round of sales PC memory prices continue to rise trend.
In terms of specific impact, SK hynix's production line is expected to start production at least a year and a half later, and Samsung Electronics Pyeongtaek production line has been ready to start the state.This means that Samsung The expansion plan for electronics will be a key factor in reversing the rise in memory prices.
crucial moment
From the perspective of Samsung's strategy, there are two possibilities. The first one is to expand the capacity scale enough to fill the current demand gap, so it will ease the current round of price increases. Secondly, we plan to expand production capacity by the second half of next year PC memory prices will show a downward trend.At present Samsung Electronics did not publicly disclose the scale of expansion plans, it is still a variable.
If Samsung adopts the second strategy, it may be unfavorable to the rising domestic semiconductor manufacturers because 2018-2019 is the crucial period of the domestic storage industry. The storage of the Yangtze River, which belongs to the "violet system", Hefei Changxin and Fujian Jin The three manufacturers of China are expected to initially achieve mass production during this time period, and new entrants must inevitably lose money in the highly-invested industries such as semiconductors, but entering the market during the downward phase of prices means higher costs.
Judging from the current progress of domestic manufacturers, it is very hard to threaten the oligarchs in 3-5 years, and the construction progress of these manufacturers is still lagging behind the expectations in our research and they are also aware of the difficulty of this industry , Not only financial support can achieve the goal, the more important threshold is the intellectual property.
For the memory industry, so far the development of three or four years, all the modules and components of a commodity have a strict intellectual property protection, playing the patent war has been a common means of market competition for new entrants, the only can do Is mass production as soon as possible, expand their own strength to make the product well, be eligible to negotiate with the original. China Electronics News
4. Collective Advisory: DRAM revenue in the third quarter rose 16.2% record high;
According to a DRAMeXchange survey of DRAM suppliers in the third quarter of 2017, DRAM revenue in the third quarter of 2017 hit another all-time high. Benefiting from the traditional peak season of sales coupled with the limited growth in the supply side, DRAM product contract prices generally rose about 5% more than the previous quarter.From the market perspective, the third quarter total DRAM revenue growth of 16.2% over the previous quarter, the overall industry is still in tight supply.
Looking forward to the next quarter, DRAMeXchange research associate Wu Ya-Ting pointed out that overall, DRAM prices in the fourth quarter rose an average of 10% or less.Among them, PC-OEM factory has agreed the contract price in the fourth quarter, the first- The average price has officially exceeded 30 US dollars, fell 30.5 US dollars, an increase of about 7% over the previous quarter; from the market to observe that this wave of gains mainly driven by mobile memory prices rise, with the continuation of DRAM supply tight situation , And the peak season effect of the flagship smartphone models. DRAM makers led by Samsung decided to raise the quoted mobile memory quotations, while mobile phone customers only have to accept enough stock. Therefore, the mobile memory rose about 10 in the fourth quarter -20% (depending on capacity); while the server memory pull cargo kinetic energy is also very strong, the fourth quarter contract prices continue to rise 6-10%.
In the third quarter of the two major Korean factories combined market share of 74.5%, the fourth quarter of Micron can narrow the market share gap
Looking at the third quarter revenue performance, Samsung is still firmly in the DRAM industry leader, revenue reached 8.8 billion US dollars, up 15.2% over the second quarter, setting a record high again; and SK hynix revenue amount to 5.5 billion US dollars , Up 22.5% over the previous quarter, significant growth momentum, the two major Korean companies accounted for 45.8% and 28.7% for each, totaling 74.5% of the market share has been included Micron still maintain the third, the amount of 40 billion revenue US dollar, up 13.0% quarter, accounting for 21.0% .As SK hynix quarter average selling price is higher than the Micron, resulting in the two markets in the three quarters of the market share gap continued to expand; Outlook fourth quarter, as Micron contrarian as the price leader, The price increase exceeds the two major Korean factories and is expected to narrow the market share gap with the second place.
Samsung's operating profit margin exceeded 60% in the third quarter to a record high of 62% due to the continued price increases and the cost-effectiveness brought by the miniaturization of the process. SK hynix also increased its sales from 54% in the second quarter to 56% ; Micron's 17nm yield steadily stabilized, operating profit margin from 44% to 50%, the most significant growth. Looking into the fourth quarter, benefiting from DRAM prices continue to rise, each profit is expected to further improve.
Samsung is considering expansion plans, SK hynix and Micron focus on yield and process into
Observing the plant technology and capacity layout, Samsung's goal this year in addition to focusing on 18nm process continued to move in recent quarters, DRAM industry, high profits, but also stimulate Samsung to think about possible DRAM expansion plans, on the one hand to deal with tight supply On the other hand, the Group expects to increase its output of DRAM and suppress the price increase of DRAM, which will consolidate its leading position and maintain the technological gap with other DRAM makers for more than 1-2 years.
On the contrary SK hynix this year's goal is still focused on the 21nm yield increase and the proportion of the process, 18nm process products are expected to have a small amount by the end of shipment; as expansion plan, SK hynix in Wuxi, China's new second 12 Inch plant as soon as 2019 will have capacity out; and Micron, Micron Taiwan (formerly Ruijing) is still committed to improving the stability of the 17nm product is expected to yield up to 80% by the end of the year, and Taiwan Micron wafer technology (formerly China and Asia Branch) this year is still 20nm manufacturing process improvement rate of increase is expected to be half of the production capacity will be transferred to 17nm next year.
Taiwan-based manufacturers, South Asia Branch third quarter revenue up slightly from the previous quarter rose 5.3%, mainly due to the niche-based products, the price increase by less than a more complete line of international manufacturers. Looking to the future, due to the The company's 20nm yield will continue to improve, which will continue to improve the cost structure and increase the profit margin of South Asia Branch. In terms of power technology, DRAM revenue declined 3.6% due to the profit from the replacement of foundries, However, due to the unknown status of the follow-up process, the profitability in the future will be completely affected by the increase in average memory selling price.
5. Integrated circuit industry chain broke the envelope industry usher in the historic opportunity
Known as the modern industry 'oil' integrated circuit industry, has been our country's short board, the annual cost of the cost of imported chips outweighs the imagination.It is reported that in the past decade, China's total chip import cost as much as 1.8 trillion US dollars in order to get rid of Serious import dependence, our country is strongly supporting the development of integrated circuit industry.In this context, the entire industrial chain of integrated circuits will benefit, integrated circuit package will usher in a historic opportunity for development.
IC packaging in the industrial chain location
IC manufacturing process includes chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing of the three links in the industry chain, the package is located in the lower reaches of the wafer manufacturing process in the upper reaches of the module manufacturing package can be considered integrated circuit manufacturing process The last process refers to a process in which a die is laid out on different types of frames or substrates, and the die is fixedly connected, a terminal is pulled out, and the package is fixed by a molding compound (EMC) to form a package with a different shape.
Packaging in the integrated circuit manufacturing industry chain position
The role of integrated circuit package contains four aspects: First, play a role in protecting the chip; Second, the package can play a supporting role in the chip, making the overall strength of the device is not easily damaged; Third, the packaging process is responsible for the chip circuit and the external lead Feet connected; Fourth, the package for the chip to improve the reliability of the environment, protect the chip life.
In the development of China's IC industry, although the packaging and testing industry is not as eye-catching as the rapid development of the chip design and manufacturing industry, it has also maintained a steady growth momentum. Especially in recent years, with the rapid growth of domestic local packaging and testing companies, Growth and foreign semiconductor companies to large-scale transfer of packaging and testing capabilities to China, China's IC packaging and testing industry is full of vitality.
From 2008 to 2016, the sales revenue of China's IC packaging and testing industry showed a volatile growth. In 2016, the industry sales revenue reached 156.43 billion yuan, an increase of 13.03% over the same period of last year.
2009-2016 China's packaging and testing industry sales revenue and growth (Unit: billion,%)
From the domestic market, IC packaging and testing companies in the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim and the Pearl River Delta region, the western region due to the improvement of investment environment, policy support and cost advantages of the future, will become the future of integrated circuit packaging companies important Investment area.
Distribution of China's IC packaging enterprises (Unit:%)
The future of integrated circuit packaging industry is promising
First, the industrial policy environment continues to improve.In recent years, the state has introduced a series of policies to support the integrated circuit industry, these policies led to the rapid development of the domestic electronic information industry and integrated circuit industry.According to the national development plan, the expected Future countries will also introduce more concessions for the integrated circuit industry, which will effectively promote the healthy and steady development of China's IC industry.
Second, the market demand is growing.China's semiconductor and microelectronics market demand growth led to the development of semiconductor packaging industry, semiconductor and microelectronics industry is in a continuous development cycle, computer, communications, consumer electronics and other electronic information products market demand driven integrated circuit industry Development, the development of the semiconductor and microelectronics industries drove the development of the semiconductor and microelectronic packaging industries.
Thirdly, the technical level of the industry is increasing day by day. In order to meet the needs of electronic products such as versatility, miniaturization and portability, new packaging technologies continue to emerge. Integrated circuit package manufacturers introduce advanced production equipment and improve products by increasing technical input Technology content, develop new products, which can achieve a higher level of profitability and enhance competitive advantage; the same time, improve the technological level also increased the industry to enter the threshold, to avoid the vicious competition within the industry, to protect the healthy development of the industry.
Finally, the international production base is concentrated in China and China still has the cost advantage of primary factors such as labor force, technology research and development, land and capital, and more and more overseas semiconductor companies are expanding their production scale in China. International semiconductor companies and package manufacturers The shift to China not only expands the market scale of integrated circuit packaging but also brings advanced technology into China and rapidly improves the overall level of China's IC packaging industry, which will surely drive the rapid growth of the industry.