Disclosure of the three quarterly A-share listed companies is completed, the performance of listed companies related to lithium batteries is pretty good.Media with 'fire all the way' 'bumper harvest' to describe this section.But if you only look at the battery and the upstream material as the main business company, Piling across the board the case will be red; if you deduct the material business, to hit a fold; If you look at non-listed power battery manufacturers, had to make a major discount.
'From the power battery industry as a whole, not many enterprises can make money easily, a few are possible, business stability, low material costs, the larger the volume of supply, for example, Fu can, CATL, Union solid profit and so on. A battery company general manager said.
1, the status quo: uneasy and bitter
China's new energy automotive industry is rapidly developing, as the most important parts of the power battery was naturally rising trend, but overall, the operating conditions of the battery companies are unenthusiastic.
First look at the large supply of enterprises.According to the statistics of Mochi concept of lithium, the first 20 months of the supply of new energy vehicles in China in the first nine months of the following table.Of these 20, a few belong to listed companies, we can from Three quarterly or semi-annual report to see their profitability.
Source: Mexico view of lithium
CATL can now be said that the limelight, not only very profitable, but also favorable for the capital market.Industry estimates that their net profit of 34 billion in 2017. Market News It is preparing IPO, the current valuation has reached more than 130 billion . Due to the availability of CATL, rumors it wants a stable supply contract car companies have to buy shares, so Changan and other companies from the market high-priced access plate, the valuation of the higher speculation the more the previous shipments in September to see , Its market share has expanded.
BYD into the 2017, the report is not good.First quarter, net profit of 2.991 billion yuan, down 23.82%. BYD semi-annual report has explained that the reason for the decline in profits due to subsidies and product access rules to adjust the policy impact of the new The sales of energy vehicles showed a year-on-year decrease during the period, with BYD expecting a net profit of more than 15% over 2016. BYD's power batteries are both homegrown and new energy vehicle sales and power battery shipments Basically 100% relevance, it can also determine BYD power battery business certainly or make money, but not as good as last year this year BYD said for the first time this year will supply power batteries to other car prices, apparently there was an internal oversupply.Especially, BYD has Huge lithium iron phosphate production capacity, but the technical route of the battery in the proportion of smaller and smaller passenger car, just rely on its own digestion has been difficult.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech is listed company, while the main business is power battery, so more representative of the company in the first three quarters operating income of 3.754 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%; net profit of 640 million yuan, down 13.27%. The company said that the production of triple battery production line, coupled with new customer development and new product development has made significant progress, but the domestic power battery prices generally declined in 2017, the upstream material prices, affecting the overall profitability.Guo Xuan Gaoke three quarterly forecast, 2017 full year net profit range of 1 billion yuan to 11.16 billion yuan, a change of range of -2.81% to 8.25% .Electronics and new energy chief analyst Deng Yongkang Securities on "electric car observer" that Guoxuan Tech performance this year Performance is very unpleasant, in the case of double-adjusted earnings forecast is still worse than expected, he estimated this year, Guo Xuan Transtech Services earnings may be similar to 2016.
It has been a dark horse in recent years. Since becoming a supplier of new energy sources to Beiqi, it has rapidly climbed up to the point of supply A few, the performance situation should be very good.
Just to see the light of the figures, Wal-Mart is the most dazzling of the many businesses inside the first three quarters, Wal-Mart owned listed firm Kennedy can record a net profit of 752 million yuan, soaring 791.18%, continue to soar, The industry still has doubts about the sales of its own battery and vehicle operation model.
Large-volume suppliers and companies belonging to listed companies in the third quarter profitability
The top five, making money should be positive, but you can see the growth stagnant situation. If you look at the supply of small businesses, the situation worse.
Integrated into the three quarterly reports, the company operating profit decreased 158.58 million yuan over the previous year, a decrease of 116.35% over the same period last year net profit decreased 180.07 million yuan, a drop of 129.15%, cut into the trend because the power battery is not To the power.The communique said that due to the adjustment of new energy vehicles subsidies, model directory reiterated the impact of industry policies, lithium prices, sales dropped significantly, gross profit margin decreased, operating profit and net profit decreased .This situation will not change in the fourth quarter , The company intends to integrate into the 2017 net profit margin is between 19 million to 5 million.
Coming soon to bid farewell to the new board of Zhuo can battery, despite the first half of 2017, operating income of 668 million yuan, an increase of 53.23%, but net profit of only 41.55 million yuan, down 6.49% over the same period last year Zhuo can announce that the main is the Government subsidies recognized in the period decreased as compared with the same period of last year.
These enterprises are also profitable enterprises, even worse is the loss or even leave the same is the view of Mochia lithium statistics, a total of 109 battery manufacturers in 2016 formed an effective installed supply, but in the first nine months of 2017, installed power There are only 73 battery suppliers left, and obviously some have been squeezed out of the market.
Fang Jianhua, Partner and President of the National Science and Technology Achievements Conversion Fund of New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-Fund, said that the situation of low-end overcapacity has become clear and that the survival of the fittest is taking place. "In previous years, the gross profit of power battery enterprises was huge but For now, the days of calling me a battery to make money are gone forever.
2, the reason: four factors
What led to the high hopes of power battery companies can not profit or profit increase?
Fang Jianhua said that, first of all, there are more power battery manufacturers and capacity is also released. OEMs are asking battery companies to lower their prices to cope with the pressure of subsidizing the downslope.
Second, the prices of raw materials in the upper reaches of the power batteries have risen. "Due to the scarcity of resources, there is a relatively long cycle of capacity release and can not be alleviated in a short period of time. '
Deng Yongkang analysis, the four major reasons lead to the battery performance if not expected.First, the new energy vehicles less than expected production and marketing.According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistics, the first nine months of the entire industry total new energy vehicles production and sales were 42.4 million and 398,000 units, representing an increase of 40.2% and 37.7% respectively from the previous year, smaller than the original estimated growth of about 50% .Also, structural changes have also emerged in this area. Passenger vehicles account for 81.66% 66% increase a lot - which means less demand for power batteries, passenger car power battery load is generally more than 20 degrees -40 degrees, while commercial vehicles can often hundreds. As a result, the total installed capacity of automotive power batteries in China for the first nine months of 2017 was 14.75GWh, an increase of only 24.14% over the same period of last year.
The second reason is the market price decline.Industry sources, the first half of the first year, the current price of lithium iron phosphate system dropped to about 1.8 yuan / Wh, ternary battery system price of about 1.65 yuan / Wh, while in the previous year this figure respectively About 2.2 yuan / Wh and 1.8 yuan / Wh. Deng Yongkang also revealed that a company recently also reported a 1.3 yuan / wh battery system prices.
However, the aforementioned anonymous power battery general manager, said the decline in power battery prices are not so much for the big car manufacturers, 'for a supplier, not so simple. Power battery enterprises are more with the upstream talk , The final price reduction of 5%, 10% on the market appeared 1.3 yuan, 1.2 yuan per hour when the price of some new entrants to enter the supply chain and the teeth of the teeth, and the specific implementation, will add some orders The amount of terms.
The third reason is the industry concentration increased, for small and medium battery companies, in the absence of scale, the performance is more difficult to guarantee.
The fourth reason, some companies included in the cost of capital expenditures increased, in particular, the capital expenditure required for capacity expansion.Pool battery said the general manager, and some companies are still raising funds, the performance of the financial means to do Looks good, such as the price of the stock to improve, etc., the actual performance is not so good.
3, response: on the next policy
Upstream downstream 'squeeze', power battery companies face the market environment will change? At the upstream level, with some materials companies expansion capacity release, the price of upstream materials will be eased, but not very fast Some materials are scarce, the supply can not be expanded.
Downstream, subsidies for new energy vehicles will have to drop by 20% again in 2019-2020. Recently, there are media reports that subsidies will be slashed by 20% in 2018. The news was not confirmed but the direction of subsidy Policy will continue to raise the technical standards of subsidies, reduce the amount of subsidies, that is, the long-term power battery OEM demand for price cuts.
How to deal with? The aforesaid power battery enterprise general manager expresses, the coping method must upstream at the same time downstream force at the same time.Upstream, the power battery should and the material enterprise strategic cooperation.Advanced payment or invests the stock way, the stable material supply and the price.
In the middle, it is the enterprise itself must expand the scale, improve efficiency and reduce costs, including the level of automation, etc. Downstream, it is necessary to bind the car prices to ensure that orders.
Fang Jianhua also recently wrote that 'the traditional car requires the core components of the CPK company was 1.67, while most of China's power battery companies are below 1.5' (Note: CPK: Complex Process Capability index acronym for the modern enterprise In the process of manufacturing capacity indicators.Capability of the process can produce high quality, high reliability products.) He also pointed out that the Panasonic battery yield up to 99%, while few domestic enterprises to achieve 95%, and some Still less than 90%. 'Improve a few percentage points, the cost savings are not a little difference is very large.' He also stressed that power battery companies should focus on technological advances, such as the production of high specific energy batteries to meet the vehicle business cost The demand.
Fang Jianhua also said that battery companies should try to build an ecosystem.Upstream to avoid being stuck in the neck, 'do not have to do it yourself, you can take strategic alliances to ensure supply in the form of shares.' Downstream and OEMs to form long-term Partnership, grow together.
China's new energy vehicles are still generally promising prospects for the 'double integral' policy on the ground, China's new energy vehicles 2020 production and marketing of 500 million has a mechanism to ensure the goal of power battery companies demand is still great, but Fang Jianhua reminded, 'battery companies Shuffling will accelerate, many companies are homogeneous, there is no core competitiveness of battery companies are facing elimination.
