October 27 to November 7, Asia Chemical raw materials PX price reached 7 consecutive gains, the cumulative increase of 61.5 US dollars / ton, has now successfully exceeded 900 US dollars / tonne CFR China mark.Cost-side crude oil in the super-expected pattern of a good turnaround under the strong rise in demand for China's PTA plant has begun to slowly recover, The news positive factors are also gradually increasing, the overall market tends to warm the atmosphere, but also further boosting the PX price movements.
The cost-end oil market is more ambitious atmosphere: First, because of the geopolitical factors exacerbated by market concerns, the situation in Saudi Arabia treacherous, and anti-corruption operations are also expanding trend, which also further aggravate the turmoil in the domestic situation, the external fear of crude oil supply will be greatly Therefore, the current sharp rise in crude oil prices, and tensions with Iran are also escalating; Second, OPEC oil producing countries are actively contributing to the extension of the agreement to cut production, in particular, Nigeria is also about to join the ranks of supporting production cuts; Third, Fourth, the level of demand for crude oil in China has risen relative to the previous period, so the international oil price climbed to a new high since June 2015, and the oil price hit 65 US dollars / barrel.
Asian PX supply and demand pressure to improve: Asian PX plant average load remained at around 85% level, of which China due to the 160 million tons / year China PetroChina plant routine parking, originally planned to restart in mid-November, now heard or about 2 days postponed, China's PTA plant, Huabo Petrochemical 1.4 million tons / year PX plant has been scheduled to run, Xianglu Petrochemical 4.5 million tons / year PTA plant plans to feed on November 10, before and after the 20th With qualified products, the estimated load of 50%, Tongkun Petrochemical new capacity will also be put into production one after another, thereby substantially increasing the domestic PX level of demand. Therefore, chemical raw material PX accumulation situation will gradually be eased.
In addition, near the end of the year, some manufacturing enterprises have already begun to plan the 2018 annual maintenance device arrangement plan. For example, the currently confirmed Formosa Plastics 580,000 t / y PX plant in the third quarter overhaul and the 870,000 t / y PX plant in the second quarter overhaul 3 weeks; Japan JX factory 420,000 tons / year PX device overhaul in May for 2 months; Korea Ulsan PX device end of May - the end of June overhaul 35-40 days; South Korea's Ssangyong 800,000 tons / year PX device overhaul in March and so on. At the same time, some traders and downstream factories started negotiations about next year. In particular, India has just started a new production of 2.2 million tons / year this year. The market focuses on the preferential space for the long negotiations.
Taken together, the overall fundamentals of the PX market in Asia are still relatively good. Before the end of the year, PX prices will continue the warming trend and test $ 900 / tonne CFR China crossing. However, vigilance is needed The key point in time is the OPEC meeting on November 30 and the Fed's rate hike in December.