The first 10 months of China's foreign trade to produce a 'mixed "transcripts.
Customs data released on November 8 showed that in the first 10 months of this year, China's foreign trade still maintained a double-digit growth of 15.9%, of which imports and exports increased by 21.5% and 11.7% respectively.
However, the growth rate of import and export in October dropped by both. Of which, the growth rate of imports and exports was 15.9% and 6.1% respectively, down 3.6 and 2.9 percentage points from September respectively.
The weak external demand and the seasonal factors of the Mid-Autumn Festival may be the major reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of foreign trade in October. With the rise of the base, exchange-rate rising benefits have become increasingly apparent. In the future, China's foreign trade is expected to be further pressured. In October, For two consecutive months, it dropped to 41.6.
According to the analysis, a series of measures have been implemented to stabilize the foreign trade, such as the structure of foreign trade, and other measures that have initially taken effect However, China's traditional competitive advantage in foreign trade is accelerating and disappearing, which requires the transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade and fostering the new advantages of foreign trade. From an external perspective, the world economy continues to recover This has provided new opportunities for foreign trade. However, trade protectionism is still on the rise. China's foreign trade is still facing huge uncertainties.
'Mixed "foreign trade transcripts
According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, the total value of China's trade in goods was 22.52 trillion yuan, up 15.9% over the same period of last year. The total value of imports and exports for the month of October was 2.24 trillion yuan, up by 10.2% over the same period of the previous year, of which exports 1.25 Trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; imports 940 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9%.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute of International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told 21st Century Business Herald reporter that in the first 10 months of China's foreign trade, there was a general feeling of joy and happiness: "China's foreign trade is still generally picking up the upward trend. The driving force behind the "chariot" is recovering. This year's foreign trade and even exports are likely to maintain double-digit growth. The worry is whether the sustainability of foreign trade recovery can be maintained. The growth rate of import and export in October dropped from that in September 3.6, 2.9 percentage points.
Compared with neighboring countries and regions, exports in Taiwan in October slipped to around 3% in October, while imports dropped to 0.1%. South Korea's October exports increased 7.1% from a year earlier, far below 9% Month 35% growth. 'Bai said that this shows that the overall external environment for the recovery of foreign trade there are still many uncertainties.
According to the experience of previous years, October is the first month of the fourth quarter and also the month of the long holiday, and the trade data may be weaker seasonally. "This year's National Day Mid-Autumn Festival gathered in October, the seasonal impact is stronger In previous years, it was normal for the export volume to be significantly reduced.
Bai Ming pointed out that the changes in foreign trade data in October were 'virtual and real.' The recovery in foreign trade in the first three quarters was largely affected by factors such as a low base and exchange rate fluctuations. Now that the exchange rate has stabilized and the base has been lifted , The growth rate of foreign trade more reflects the real growth of foreign trade.
In 2016, the import and export of China showed the trend of low low to high and steady from quarter to quarter, and the import and export in the fourth quarter increased from 3.8% in the first three quarters to 2.6% in 2011. Affected by this, the growth rate of import and export in the fourth quarter of this year may be High tendency to slow down.
In the last two months of this year, the year-on-year base of foreign trade will further increase. The growth rate of foreign trade in October last year was -0.6%. In November and December, the figure was 8.9% and 4.9% respectively. The high base for the same period Affecting the fourth quarter of this year's import and export growth. 'Baiming said.
It is noteworthy that in October China's foreign trade export leader index was 41.6, down 0.2 over the previous month, of which the export manager index was 43.4, down 0.5 from the previous month; the new export orders index, export managers confidence index fell 0.7 , 1.2 to 46.4, 49.9. The Composite Cost Index for Export Enterprises rebounded 1.2 to 21.1.
Baiming said that the foreign trade leading index has dropped again on the basis that it had dropped last month, indicating that the future foreign trade will be further under pressure. "The figures for the growth rate of foreign trade are all formed when the contracts were reached in the first few months of implementation and the actual reflection Is the cold and warm situation of the past few months, while the weak new orders will have an impact on the end months.
'Drag' pull 'wrestling between the structural adjustment
In Baiming's opinion, at present, there are a number of factors that have dragged and dragged China's foreign trade forward. These include not only the many policy measures for stimulating the development of foreign trade, but also a number of factors such as the "hindrance to foreign trade and trade" Difficult in the forward.
In terms of stimulating the steady growth of foreign trade and promoting the transformation of foreign trade, China has promulgated a series of measures to vigorously promote various trade facilitation measures, and convenient measures such as the integration of customs clearance have been gradually put in place. Meanwhile, high-tech zones, A large number of various kinds of parks, such as the Free Trade Zone and the Bonded Zone, are rapidly emerging and have become the new platforms and carriers for stimulating the development of foreign trade. These parks have also started to exert force in promoting the growth of foreign trade. The in-depth promotion of 'One Belt One Road' has also provided for the development of foreign trade A new vast space.
Baiming said that the sluggishness of China's foreign trade growth is to some extent impaired by the continuous loss of traditional foreign trade advantages.
As domestic factor costs continue to rise, labor-intensive industries are no longer competitive, while lower-cost countries like Southeast Asia are rapidly moving toward an export-oriented economy based on labor-intensive industries, which will shape China's trade Must be replaced.
This is reflected in the "strong and weak" structure of China's export commodities: electromechanical products are still generally strong while exports of labor-intensive products are obviously weak.
Mechanical and electrical products and traditional labor-intensive products have been the mainstay of China's exports, with data from the first 10 months showing that China's exports of machinery and electronic products increased by 12.4% and 11.7% respectively, accounting for 57.7% of the total.
Over the same period, exports of seven major labor-intensive products, including clothing, textiles, footwear, furniture, plastic products, luggage and toys, increased by 8.6%, significantly lower than the overall growth in exports.
In the month of October, the export growth of major labor-intensive products also slowed down while the export growth of hi-tech products and mechanical and electrical products was higher than the overall export growth.
"Countries with lower labor costs, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, still maintained rapid export growth, indicating that China does not have the advantage of importing international labor-intensive products from its international counterparts, and the previous advantages are still diminishing , Even to a certain stage will become a disadvantage. 'Baiming said.
In his opinion, China's foreign trade urgently needs to be upgraded and rebuilt in order to re-create the new international competitive advantage of China's foreign trade with technology, brand, quality, service and standards as the core. "At present and in the coming period, China's foreign trade is at a pace of structural readjustment, Continued conversion of the key stage '
'Push' 'block' coexistence of external uncertainty
Looking to the future, China's foreign trade development in 2018 not only usher in new opportunities, but also face more challenges.
Baiming said that judging from a global perspective, China's foreign trade has a "push": the so-called "push" means that the world economy is still getting better and the external demand for continued recovery has a catalytic effect on China's foreign trade. The so-called 'block' With the rise of trade protectionism, China's foreign trade will face more trade remedies.
The global economic growth momentum has been continuously increasing since the second half of 2016. This trend has continued in 2017 and the global economy has achieved the broadest recovery since the international financial crisis, with developed economies such as the United States, Europe, Japan and Canada generally in economic growth Speed up, emerging markets and developing economies benefited from the improvement of the external environment, economic growth is accelerating.
In 2012-2016, the growth rate of global trade volume was below the world economic growth rate for five consecutive years, while the growth rate of foreign trade in the first half of this year was as high as 19.6%, significantly higher than the economic growth rate. According to Bai Ming, this is the result of a long period of negative growth in foreign trade A kind of restorative growth.
However, he also pointed out that the momentum of such restorative growth is now declining. In his view, the growth of foreign trade based on the world economic recovery is also moving toward a new normal.
'The future growth may be more of a tepid normalization growth: foreign trade does not have the foundation for long-term decline, but as the first half of the sharp increase can not be sustained, the future may be back to a relatively uniform, A steady growth range.
Liu Xuezhi pointed out that some of the recent trade-related indicators have shown that the uncertainty of the future is on the rise in early November BDI index, crude oil transport index fell to 1477, respectively, 814. China's leading trade export index, export managers index For two consecutive months, it dropped to 41.6 and 43.4 points. In November, the export container freight index dropped to 779.47 points. In the fourth quarter, China's shipping economy index dropped to 110.02 points.
The "Report on the Situation of China's Foreign Trade (Autumn 2017)" released this week by the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the trend of protectionism is still on the rise and that this will long threaten the global economic recovery.
Due to the slow progress of multilateral negotiations and the slowing down of global trade and investment liberalization, the international community lacks a strong restraining mechanism for protectionism and the trade friction will continue to threaten the healthy development of trade. China is the biggest victim of trade friction on a global scale. It is not only labor-intensive Products are subject to multi-national restrictions, capital-intensive products such as steel have also become the focus of foreign trade friction suffered.
Nearly half of the trade remedy cases in 2016 targeted Chinese steel products: a total of 49 cases were filed for iron and steel investigations in 21 countries and regions, involving a total amount of US $ 7.895 billion, with the number and amount of cases increasing by 32.4% and 63.1% from the same period of last year, which is directly reflected in the This year's steel exports: January-October China's total exports of steel fell 30.4% year on year, October China's steel exports fell 35.3%.