From the real estate investment and development point of view, the industry does decline .1999 - 2014, China's real estate industry has an average annual growth rate of more than 20%. And the national real estate development investment growth in 2015 dropped to 2000 with data records Since the lowest point since only 1% .2016, the national real estate development investment growth slightly. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2016 the national real estate development investment 10,258.1 billion yuan, representing a 6.9% increase over the previous year nominal (after deducting the price factor The actual growth of 7.5%); January-September 2017, the national real estate development investment 8.0644 trillion yuan, representing a nominal increase of 8.1%.
However, the saying of 'silver age' was recently hit by Sun Hongbin, chairman of Sunac China. On November 5, Sun Hongbin, chairman of Sunac China, attended a forum sponsored by the Association of Entrepreneurs and Entrepreneurs of the University in Beijing Said Vanke put forward the real estate is silver age, I say this is too pull.Why do I say when I want to make a profit of 10 billion, they say I am crazy, and now just a company's profits are more than 10 billion This year, Rongchuang profit of 34 billion, so you say it is the silver age, this is not bad thing.
Housing prices tend to monopoly
In 2014, People's Daily published an article entitled Yu Liang, President of Vanke, entitled "China's Property Market Entering the Silver Age." In this article, Yu Liang said: 'The real estate industry has already passed the most golden Years, but it is by no means the Titanic on icebergs, but the days of 'boldness', where everyone can make money and grow bold and make money, is over.
In this article, Yu Liang's main point is: the end of the era of huge profits, the overall growth slowed down, the industry concentration is expected to increase, will pay more attention to ordinary residential and commercial real estate, first-tier cities have more obvious advantages.
Yu Liang this reference in the ensuing years were repeatedly mentioned in the industry and generally recognized by the industry.Central Plains real estate analyst Zhang Dawei also clearly remember that before and after 2012, the property market in the capital tightening environment adjustment cycle.So, someone Put forward the end of the real estate 'Golden Age' and entered the 'Silver Age.' Since 2014, people basically agreed with this view that the real estate industry is no longer beautiful.
However, Sun Hongbin recently put forward different views on this issue.Sun Hongbin said he first proposed the high turnover of the real estate industry from the 1990s to 2000. At that time, the mode of cash to cash was the first to be studied by Vanke, and later Hengda Learn, Country Garden is also learn, then yes, because the industry can not play without the scale, large-scale rapid turnover, why a lot of people make a lot of money, because it is easy to do because it is leveraged because it can be used Bank money, client money, builders money, all the money is payable, there is no receivable. I (then) estimated that this stage will have 5 years, this is the first stage .2008 , Rongchuang China put forward this strategy of high-end boutique, to do to improve housing .This is the second stage.We are leading the market.
Sun Hongbin mainly questioned the reference to Vanke's "Silver Age." He considered this formulation 'too hot.'
Sun Hongbin believes that this is the diamond age. 'Who's the diamond era? Large companies diamond era, because large companies are constantly incorporating the market share of small companies. Small companies are gone, this era is over .I think the real estate The first half will last 5 years or 10 years, which is what I said in the first half of China's real estate market and we have always been the leader. "
Under the scale of high profits
So, the real estate industry is the silver era or the diamond era?
In response, Zhang Dawei believes that a number of data fiercely hit the face (for the 'silver age' argument.) Zhang Dawei data provided by a number of companies released in October sales, real estate sales are still in the peak. According to the current statistics, the companies that announced the sales results set a new record in 2017. The sales performance announced by the enterprises including Country Garden, Evergrande and Vanke have surpassed the full year of 2016. The cumulative total sales of 28 companies reached 2.84 trillion Year on year increase of 46%.
In addition, Zhang Dawei also sort out another set of data.From the data.From January to October in many cities across the country residential sales are still high, most of the projects are signed more than the historical record.Even in the history of the most restrictive sign, published The subscription data is still refreshing history, with the highest sales volume of over 7 billion yuan in the country and 19 projects with sales exceeding 4 billion yuan and 60 projects with sales exceeding 3 billion yuan.
Zhang Dawei agrees with Sun Hongbin's statement about the 'Diamond Age.' He believes that the number of billion-room enterprises will exceed 15 in 2017 and despite the strict regulation in 2017, the enterprises still gain the most bumper year in history, he said, Due to the hot sales in 2015 and 2016, the prices of major housing enterprises in the market can be settled and the performance is relatively stable. From the perspective of the real estate enterprises that have already published their performance forecasts, the pre-lost ones are all transitional or small and medium-sized housing enterprises with the principal business of Real estate real estate business performance is positive growth.
Ouyang Jie, vice president of Metro Holdings believes that this view of Sun Hongbin part of the housing prices is right. 'When the monopoly of the industry, of course, the monopoly is the most benefit, most small and medium-sized housing prices have not even the' era 'but no. More profits do not necessarily mean high profit margins, but because of the large scale, 100 billion sales, even if the net profit margin of only 8%, you can also have a net profit of 8 billion yuan, but also much higher than the sales of 100 Net profit of 1.5 billion yuan for enterprises with net profit rate of 15% and profit rate for shareholders instead of profit rate.
According to Yan Yuejin, director of research at EHR Research Institute, the formulation in the Silver Age should actually be interpreted as a slowdown in real estate growth rather than a reduction in absolute size. In fact, many third- and fourth-tier cities are also emerging now, The rate of urbanization, in fact, can continue to activate the real estate market development opportunities. The most typical point is that it looks like housing transactions are hot now, but can not afford housing and can not afford to rent a house in fact, a lot of people. Transformation is easy to release a wave of housing demand, which are the reform dividend If from the profit point of view, the golden real estate profit decade has passed, the current profit is indeed the silver age.
The real estate market is the silver age or the diamond era, apparently 'benevolent see the benevolent wisdom' .In the foregoing, Yu Liang in the People's Daily signed articles such a passage. 'In my opinion, the real estate market is more like a beautiful zebra. Whether it's black and white, or black and white, depends entirely on the individual's perspective, the optimist might think it is white, but there are also black lines that need caution, the pessimist thinks it's black, but also white For this zebra, I hope everyone will remain vigilant when optimistic and pessimistic.