Currently, the new energy automotive industry is in a policy-driven market, technology-driven transition phase.Long-term automotive electrification trend to determine the concentration of short-term power batteries to enhance the industry and most mainstream brokerage agencies believe that the future in the vehicle manufacturing, battery power , Positive and negative materials, electrical control, charging pile and other industrial chain links are expected to grow larger companies. Motorization trend is expected to give birth to trillion-level space in the new market.
Market explosion period
At the 19th China International Industry Fair being held, new energy vehicles have become well-deserved 'stars.' Many well-known domestic and foreign automobile enterprises such as Geely, SAIC and Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. have brought their new models of new energy vehicles onto the market. Among the products, there is a hydrogen-fueled new-energy vehicle; Yutong Bus exhibited the new energy vehicles such as the E10 pure electric bus and the E8 pure electric bus, etc. The hybrid luxury MPV built by Chrysler Co., Ltd. Plug-in hybrid version) is also the first time in the exhibition to meet with Chinese consumers.
Boosted by the above short-term news, the stocks of A-shares on the A-share market rose in a row yesterday. MeiLi Technologies, Weitang Industry and Huayang Group had their stocks soaring daily. Nearly 10 stocks of Yaxia Auto, Ankai Bus and Yaxing Bus Co., Is also more than 4% .And is noteworthy is the occasion of the recent Shanghai Composite Index once again launched the upward momentum, the venue of new energy auto stocks in response, a lot of 'new leader' posture.
From the concept of plate point of view, although the overall style of the market bias this year, the value of blue-chip, but the concept of lithium batteries, Tesla, fuel cells and other frequently performed, cumulative gains second only to wireless charging and small metals, while small metals such as lithium, cobalt , Etc., itself also has a strong correlation with the lithium battery industry, its strength behind the market optimistic about the prospects for new energy vehicles.
In recent years, the state has promoted the development of the new energy automotive industry to a strategic level with a series of favorable policies. At the same time, subsidies have also been given to manufacturers and consumers for purchasing products through financial subsidies. The domestic market for new energy vehicles has been developing rapidly , Demand began to show explosive growth.
The mainstream domestic car companies have new energy vehicles as the focus of future development in the Geely Automobile Group CEO An Conghui view, the automotive industry will usher in a full-blown new species in 2020. The next 5 years, Geely will accelerate the introduction of new energy vehicles By 2020, new energy vehicles will account for 90% of Geely's overall sales.
With the launch of the new energy vehicle market, the various links of its related industries such as power lithium battery, charging pile, electrical and electronic control, etc. have also drawn the attention of various funds and investors and have started to form a huge industrial cluster.
At the global level, China has become the most active lithium battery in the world, with BYD and Ningde times relying on the whole industry chain strategy and leading battery core technologies, respectively, to obtain a relatively large market share. At the same time, Tech, Li Shen and CATIC Lithium and other well-known manufacturers have also been active.
In addition, a small amount of equipment needs to be imported, nearly 80% of the domestic lithium battery production and processing equipment has been domestically produced, and the localization trend is still on the rise. Some manufacturers with core technologies start with strong quality and more intimate prices Gradually enter the overseas market.Lithium battery winding equipment is the more successful stage at this stage.
Policy honeymoon period
In the long run, automotive electrification in China's development prospects and trends are more certain.
At present, the disclosure of the three quarterly reports of the vehicle industry is complete, the first three quarters of the total revenue of new energy concept industry totaled 1.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.22% .Lithium lithium upstream feedstock limited release of production capacity to promote substantial price increases, related resources, corporate profits Brilliant performance.
In terms of sales volume, the data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the new energy vehicles segment, the sales volume in September this year was 77,000 units and 78,000 units respectively, up 79.7% and 79.1% over the same period of previous year respectively. The cumulative production and sales volume in September 2017 424,000 units and 398,000 units, up 40.2% and 37.7% respectively over the same period last year.
According to the Energy-saving and New-energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in October last year, by 2020, 2025 and 2030, the proportion of new energy vehicles sold in China will account for 7%, 15% and 40% respectively of the total sales volume of automobiles. In April this year, the "long-term development plan for the automobile industry" will further increase the penetration rate target to 20% or more by 2025. According to estimates, if the penetration target of 7% in 2020 can be completed, the sales volume of domestic NEVs will reach 2 million.
September 26 this year, China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance General Assembly, Vice Minister Xin Guoxin said that China is working through five key areas to promote the development of power batteries.Among them, to improve the reliability, stability and safety of high-energy density battery system Will be the next focus of work, while encouraging businesses to speed up the battery of new systems such as solid state battery research and development.In addition, following the Ministry of Industry launched the traditional energy-saving car sales schedule, the fuel consumption points assessment, new energy vehicles, battery management has been recycling Launched and coming soon.
At the same time, in the face of new energy vehicles will take the lead in the operation of the transportation system popularization, drops also said it will introduce 100 million new energy vehicles by 2020, will also invest in the construction of new energy vehicles operating charging and discharging system, And try self-built charging station.
In the vehicle manufacturing, power battery, charging station (pile) and other new energy vehicles at the same time the whole industry chain development, both central ministries and local level also made full promulgation of relevant supportive policies so that the new energy automotive industry and its related industries continued Enjoy the honeymoon policy brought by the policy of all kinds of sweet.
Recently, Fujian Province issued the "Notice on the Development Planning of New Energy Vehicles in Fujian Province (2017-2020)" and clearly pointed out the key tasks and key layout projects and their safeguard measures for the development of new energy industry. Recently, Guangdong Province issued the " New Energy Vehicles Promote and Apply Provincial Financial Subsidy Policy (Draft for Comment), which stipulates that new energy vehicles should be purchased and registered in Guangdong and consumers (including entities and individuals) declared in the place of registration should be given a comprehensive subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles. Registration of vehicles starting January 1 is 50% of the state subsidy.
Chuancai Securities believes that in order to achieve the overall plan of 2 million vehicles with a capacity of 2 million in the NEV market in 2020, all parties in the industry will concentrate their resources and actively guarantee the supply of equipment and continue to invest in research and development funds. The future development of the industry is worth the wait.
'Three main lines' layout
In the short term, the fourth quarter will be the peak season for new energy vehicles. Coupled with the expectation of advance purchase due to the subsidies to be decelerated in 2018, the production and sales volume in the fourth quarter will increase significantly. The gradual replacement of traditional fuel vehicles is the trend of the times. Theme of the eve of the outbreak of the concept of capital market investors how to layout in order to share the feast of this theme investment it?
Summarize the mainstream brokerage point of view, there are about three specific investment mainline: First, the prominent advantages of lithium batteries upstream raw materials enterprises; second is to have the advantages of scale, high technical threshold and access to new energy passenger car supply chain of the subject; third is the absolute competitive advantage of the leading auto companies.
Among them, Tianfeng Securities believes that passenger car cycle and growth coexist, the development of new energy vehicles market is accelerating, optimistic about the rise of its own brand passenger cars and autonomous components resonance, as well as the accelerated development of new energy automotive industry. In the strong cycle of the leading independent brands and its core supplier chain; and new energy explosion car industry chain quality new energy components subject matter.
Bohai Securities believes that the state's willingness to support the sustained and healthy development of the NEV industry has not changed. With the introduction of the catalog of national promotion and the promulgation of various local subsidy policies, the market demand is expected to accelerate. It is suggested that the focus should be on new energy passenger vehicles and operations, Logistics special vehicles and new energy bus investment opportunities.
For lithium equipment investment prospects, Pacific Securities stressed that the current Ministry of Industry is actively developing fuel-cell launch programs, policies continue to boost the industry, lithium-ion equipment in the industry trend will usher in a 2-3 year complete up cycle.Lithium batteries as the current The best source of power options, lithium battery manufacturers have to expand production capacity in response to huge industry demand in the context of new energy vehicles to the domestic transfer of the market, optimistic about the advantages of the industrial chain and strong R & D management capabilities of enterprises. , The entire line solution business, optimistic about its domestic import substitution prospects.
