The development of China's semiconductor industry has its own unique rules, usually the production line climbing ramp rate is slow, with relatively long time, that is, such as the need to "relay bar." However, the development of China's semiconductor industry at any time must be full of confidence in the end Because we have national level support and are unmatched in other regions of the world, we believe China's semiconductor industry will surely achieve its final success.
- Mo Taikang November 6, 2017
01 big fund Zoran achievements under the promotion
Recently in China's semiconductor industry good things again and again, Shanghai Semiconductor announced that its MOCVD equipment Prismo A7 models shipments have exceeded 100 units, to milestone, including Sanan Optoelectronics and Hua Can photoelectric equipment can accommodate up to 4 Reaction chamber, while processing 136 4-inch epitaxial wafers, due to continue to receive new orders, the micro is expected to be expected to ship about 120 sets by the end of 2017. According to the China Semiconductor Equipment Industry Association reported that in the first half of 2017, micro-sales Up 374 million yuan, up 149 million yuan last year, an increase of 151%.
Another example is SMIC, which in order to achieve China's semiconductor manufacturing industry in 2020 to achieve large-scale production of 14-nanometer, SMIC must be in the trial production phase into the risk in 2018. SMIC's R & D department has With just enough horsepower, its 14-nanometer SRAM sample has risen from 512K to 128M in just three months, and the SARM yield break zero needs to be stepped up at full speed Throttle forward.With SMIC recently announced the foreground of the company, Samsung joined the senior CEO Liang Mingsong joined the co-CEO, all walks of life for SMIC to escape the 28-nanometer lag, fully into the 14-nanometer bet higher expectation.It is reported that SMIC Inside has been 'dead order' must fully accelerate the 14 nm production to move forward.
Even more exciting is that SMIC's share price in the United States reached US $ 8.74 in 2017-11-3, an increase of 96% over the low of US $ 4.49 in the recent three months, reflecting the generally optimistic view of SMIC in the future .
02 to meet the more difficult time to come
According to SEMI statistics, at least 15 fab new projects in China's semiconductor industry have been completed recently, and it is possible that the semiconductor investment will reach 12 billion U.S. dollars in 2018, ranking the top in the world Such vistas are rare in the history of China 's semiconductor industry, even in the world.
For example, three major storage projects such as Changjiang Storage, Changxin of Anhui and Jinhua of Fujian were launched one after another, and the chip manufacturing plants of SMIC, Huali Microelectronics and Huahong once again set off the climax of technology and capacity expansion.
However, in the face of the "13th Five-Year Plan," many challenges still exist so far. On the one hand, there is a deepening demand for the goal of the industry under the 19 new thinking and new requirements. . In particular, expanding market share in key high-end chip markets and increasing the localization rate of ICs pose new challenges for China's IC design industry. On the other hand, process technology technologies such as 32-layer 3D NAND flash memory. 19nm DRAM 'and 28nm and 14nm logic processes are facing many technical problems and need to accumulate' learning curve 'experience. However, due to lack of investment in R & D and lack of high-end talent, there are still some uncertainties Therefore, it is proposed to prepare for a tougher time to come. Its profound significance lies in letting the industry make various plans in advance to avoid detours.
Since most of China's semiconductor chip production line at this stage are in the project from the establishment, to groundbreaking, and plant construction phase, took about 12 months time, the next step will be quickly transferred to a more critical phase, a large number of semiconductor equipment arrival installation, And ready to pass the trial production, normal, then about 6-9 months time.Generally speaking, the previous stage is money, relatively easy, and enter the line production phase more difficult, it depends on the overall strength. So the more difficult timeframe for most of the new chipmakers should be in the 2018-2019, perhaps even some time period later.
Analysis of China's chip manufacturing industry will face the three main junks in the future, that is, product technology, cost and patent disputes.In the chip production line pass stage, you need to really grab, fight strength, the situation will not be as easy as spending money, Comfortable, because the first is the embodiment of technical capabilities, products can be made as scheduled.Even if the product can be mass-produced, there is a greater cost because of competitors, most of them are the forehand, from the technical and talented people have considerable Accumulation, even when similar yields are achievable, their capacity is large, and the depreciation costs of the products are much lower, so the final cost is obviously lower than ours, so the capacity climbing process will be very difficult in this period. Patent dispute must be opened up, decided that we must make all preparations from now on, any luck is very dangerous.
03 coping strategies
1) There is no chance of being lucky The psychological situation is always beyond expectation, because it is impossible to expect everything, and competitors will not stand by and watch.
Competitors are defending us. For example, SK hynix recently signed a contract with Wuxi Municipal Government to invest a further 8.6 billion U.S. dollars in capacity expansion. Its estimated total monthly production capacity is more than 200,000. Process technology is locked at 10 nanometers and the plant is estimated Completed by the end of 2018, in 2019 moved into the machine equipment.
In addition, Samsung also plans to expand Hwasung plant line 16 and Samsung's South Korea's Pyeongtaek plant is also planning a new DRAM production line, a total increase of a slight increase of 60,000 However, Hirakata Pirandi potentially scalable In fact, the production capacity of up to 200,000 or more, Samsung's total monthly production capacity of more than 1 million as many as 20%.
The original three DRAM makers are not easily expanded, trying to monopolize the supply and demand balance of the market, but now they decided to expand production in 2019, their purpose is very clear, trying to attack the mainland's storage dream.
The industry has estimated that the loss period of China's memory projects may be 3-4 years after it is put into operation to ramp up its production capacity, and when the chip production line enters the stage of loss-making, there will be little confidence in it and various contradictions will gradually emerge .
Although the chip manufacturing industry in China may have realized in mind that the future is going to be prepared for a tougher time to come, the true feeling of arrival will certainly be more unforgettable.
2) Prepare a variety of response plans to prepare for surprise Be careful analysis of the three aspects of product technology, costs and patent disputes mentioned in the article, and do a good job coping with the plan.
3) At any time to establish confidence, persist in the end a small number of foreign people are not optimistic about China's memory industry, with the exception of a few with 'non-ferrous glasses', some of whom are pertinent and reasonable but from the Chinese semiconductor industry From the standpoint, it is the need of industrial development. It is determined to win, and it must be overcome by further major difficulties.
The development of China's semiconductor industry has its own unique rules, usually the production line climbing ramp rate is slow, with relatively long time, that is, such as the need to "relay bar." However, the development of China's semiconductor industry at any time must be full of confidence in the end Because we have national level support and are unmatched in other regions of the world, we believe China's semiconductor industry will surely achieve its final success.