Large size panel sufficient capacity, 2018 second half of the oversupply situation will be improved
It can be said that the large size of the panel in 2017 what is missing, is not lack of production.Qiu Yubin said that 2017 large-scale surface capacity expansion is very positive, a total of three new production line + 2 production line expansion.2018, Production capacity is still very adequate, and will add 10 million BOE and CLP Group 8.6 and 8.6 + three production lines.
For the supply and demand situation of large-size panels, Qiu Yubin said that the 2018 annual oversupply ratio of 8.5%, an increase of 2.5% over 2017. It is noteworthy that, in the case of no reduction in production, 2018 Q1 supply and demand ratio of up to 14.9% , The supply and demand imbalance is relatively serious, the main reason is that Q1 is the traditional industry off-season, and Q2 supply and demand will be relatively slow, but still up to 9.5%. Qiu Yubin that the fastest to 2018 Q2 and Q3, Demand will pick up, so the second half of 2018 large-size panel supply and demand will be relatively balanced.
By 2020, the world at least 4-5 10.5 generation line
According to Qiu Yubin introduction, the current planning of the 10.5 production line is very much, 2018 Q1, Hefei Jingdong will be out of China's first 10.5 production lines, which is the world's first 10.5 production lines, so much attention. Then, in 2019, the domestic Huaxing and South Korea's LG will start the first 10.5-generation production line; In addition, Hon Hai and Sharp's production line in Guangzhou will also enter 10.5 in 2019.
At the same time, BOE will announce the second 10.5-generation production line in Wuhan in November, and it is expected to join the market supply by 2020. In other words, by 2020, BOE has at least two 10.5-generation lines, The world at least 4-5 10.5 generation line.It is noteworthy that the 10.5-generation panel size is 8.5 times 1.8 times, how to digest the production capacity is the future industry must solve the problem.
In terms of production capacity, Qiu Yubin said that in 2017, more than 10 generations of production capacity is very small, only 3%, the main capacity contribution from 8.x, mainly 8.5 generation, production accounted for 58%. 2018 10.5 generations continue to join the market, it is estimated that by 2020, the global 10.5 generation capacity will probably reach 14% of the proportion of fear of 6 generations and 7.x generation of living space.
Qianyu Bin said that in 2017, the largest proportion of production capacity is South Korea, the second is Taiwan, the third is China. It is estimated that by 2018, Chinese manufacturers will be 32.5% of the city accounted for The world's second largest production capacity of the panel area.In addition, with the BOE, Huaxing 10.5 generation line out, is expected to 2019, China will be 37.4% share of the global large size panel won the championship.
Qiu Yubin introduction, 10.5 generation mainly has two key products, one is 8 to take the 65-inch, the other is 6 to take 75. Relative to the 75-inch, 65-inch products closer to us. 2015, Taiwan Manufacturers rely on the advantages of the 6-generation line to occupy the entire 65-inch market technology, but then the Korean manufacturers to 8.5-generation mixed way (65 inch +32 inch) to master the 65-inch panel of the initiative.
At present, the Chinese manufacturers have not cut a striking figure, but after the 10.5 generation to join, it is estimated that by 2020, the entire 65-inch supply will be a big change, first of all, the BOE on a vendor's supply ratio will reach 24%, plus Huaxing Of the 8%, Chinese manufacturers will occupy one-third of the 65-inch process market, so not only the leading capacity, the Chinese manufacturers in the large size, generation of the role of supply will become increasingly important.
At present in high-end television, OLED is more popular than quantum dots
In 2017, OLED TV shipments reached 1.5 million units, next year in the LGD continued expansion under the premise of shipping point of view 2.4 million units, the penetration rate is expected to exceed 1% for the first time.However, the quantum point of the TV shipments may Only 125-130 million units, in other words, in the high-end television competition, the quantum dot compared to the OLED defeated.
Qiao Yubin said, in fact, the role of leader is always the most important. Quantum point leader is Samsung, but Samsung 2017 in the second half of the strategy has a very big change, Samsung gave up the so-called high-end but There is no amount of products, but the focus of the shipment into the middle but the amount of products from the product.Therefore, Samsung's resources in the quantum point reduction, and naturally reduce the entire quantum point, including domestic TCL, Hisense in the quantum point of concern The
So, the future of quantum dots and the competitive situation between the OLED is what? Qiu Yubin that, in the short term, especially in 2018, OLED because of the scarcity of high-end television market is still to maintain a certain competitiveness.However, we must emphasize , OLED in the TV market is facing three very important challenges: First, the current OLED in the world only a supplier of LGD, which makes a lot of customers dare not to start the OLED TV program; Second, LCD TV price is limited with the panel The price can not be separated from the relationship.Therefore, OLED next year if you want to maintain 2.4 million -250 million shipments, the price must be made at the end of the sacrifice, but the pressure will be the most direct feedback to the LGD who, because customers will ask them OLED panel to do a price cut; the third challenge is the biggest problem, a year 1.5 million units shipped in the world accounted for only 0.7%, on behalf of this is still only a very small niche market, niche market concept Indicating that he is likely to be excluded from the industry.
What is the opposite of the quantum point of the TV, is not because the Samsung strategy conversion is completely hopeless? Qiu Yubin that is actually not so pessimistic, the second generation of quantum dots TV (QDCF), that is, QD quantum dots with the current LCD screen Of the color film to do the combination, help to reduce the cost of the entire quantum dots, the fastest in the second half of 2018 will be heavy in the panel, and then the production of products may need to wait until the second half of 2019.
AMOLED in the smart machine market continues to erode, flexible AMOLED will replace the hard AMOLED
OLED investment in small size is very positive.Qiu Yubin said that small-scale OLED production capacity of the expansion of heat continued to sustain, is expected to 2018 annual production capacity will increase by 2017 55.3% 2015 to 2020, small size AMOLED capacity of the year Composite growth rate of up to 37.2%. Small size OLED production capacity expansion, in addition to Samsung Display continued positive response, LGD also because the main customers Apple's use of wind direction change and become positive. China includes BOE, Tianma, Down will also play a key role in pushing up production capacity.In addition, consider the capital and market competition, Japan and Taiwan manufacturers in the OLED investment is very conservative.
At the same time, Qiu Yubin said that this year in the iPhone X launched under the incentive, equipped with AMOLED panel iPhone proportion of 20%. With the AMOLED panel supply increased, Apple is expected to be the fastest in 2020 all iPhone to AMOLED camp.
It is reported that samsung Display this year exclusive iPhone AMOLED panel supply. LGD actively invest in flexible AMOLED production capacity is expected to begin in the year 2018 to Apple supply.As technology and production unmatched global, Qiu Yubin estimated that even by 2020, Samsung Display of the proportion of supply Or more than half.
Qiu Yubin that open up AMOLED panel suppliers will continue to be an important issue for Apple in the next few years, in addition to Korean manufacturers, the Japanese and even manufacturers may join the ranks of AMOLED iPhone supply.Apple will choose who will do the next flexible OLED suppliers? Qiu Yubin put forward four indicators for everyone to refer to, respectively, is trying to heart, adequate funds, the acquisition of key equipment (world-class evaporation equipment), the existing business cooperation.
In addition, Qiu Yubin said, AMOLED in the smart machine market continued to erode, 2017 penetration rate of 28%, is expected to rise to 43% by 2020. Consider the direction of production capacity and specifications of the unique, flexible AMOLED will be the next few years Push the main, the proportion will increase from 28% this year to 61% in 2020, hard AMOLED is likely to be eliminated.
The first quarter of 1817 18: 9 panel tilted out, and will maintain high growth
2017 years can be said to be the first year of the full screen, but the first year will usually appear a lot of the situation.Qiu Yubin said that this year's biggest situation is a comprehensive screen of the mobile phone screen supply should be concentrated in 2017 Q4. Two problems, Q3 manufacturers have launched a comprehensive panel, which for the higher unit price in the market to achieve higher profits, but once into the Q4, the main panel factory 18: 9 panel out of the nest, so that into the standardization Of the reincarnation, then 18: 9 and 16: 9 panel price competition will become increasingly fierce.
Finally, Qiu Yubin said that with the panel supply restrictions gradually lifted, 1818 18: 9 penetration point of view 36%, the future 18: 9 panel will maintain the trend of high-speed growth, estimated to 2021 accounted for more than 8 percent. Will be able to stimulate the already saturated smart phone market.