National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
In October 2017, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 51.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reaching the average level this year, the manufacturing sector continued to expand the development trend.
According to the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 53.1%, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and remained in the expansion range. The PMI of medium and small enterprises was 49.8% and 49.0% respectively, down by 1.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points respectively Point below.
From the classification index, the production index, the new order index is higher than the critical point, the raw material inventory index, the employee index and the supplier delivery time index are lower than the critical point in the five classification indices constituting the manufacturing PMI.
Production index of 53.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, is still above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continues to grow, growth has slowed.
The new order index was 52.9%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand growth has narrowed.
Raw material inventory index was 48.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventories continue to decrease.
Employee index was 49.0%, unchanged from last month, below the critical point, indicating that manufacturing enterprises to reduce the amount of labor.
Vendor delivery time index of 48.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continue to be below the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing raw material suppliers delivery time has slowed down.
Table 1 China's manufacturing industry PMI and constituent index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit:% | ||||||
|
| PMI |
| ||||
| produce | new order | Raw materials in stock | Practitioners | Supplier delivery time | ||
| October 2016 | 51.2 | 53.3 | 52.8 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 50.2 |
| November 2016 | 51.7 | 53.9 | 53.2 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 49.7 |
| December 2016 | 51.4 | 53.3 | 53.2 | 48.0 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
| January 2017 | 51.3 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 49.8 |
| February 2017 | 51.6 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 48.6 | 49.7 | 50.5 |
| March 2017 | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
| April 2017 | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| May 2017 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| June 2017 | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| July 2017 | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| August 2017 | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| September 2017 | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| October 2017 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
Table 2 Relevant indicators (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit:% | ||||||||
|
| New exit Order | import | Purchase quantity | Purchase price of major raw materials | Factory price | Finished product in stock | In hand Order | Production and business activities expected |
| October 2016 | 49.2 | 49.9 | 52.4 | 62.6 | 55.5 | 46.9 | 45.8 | 58.2 |
| November 2016 | 50.3 | 50.6 | 52.9 | 68.3 | 58.3 | 45.9 | 46.7 | 59.0 |
| December 2016 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 52.1 | 69.6 | 58.8 | 44.4 | 46.2 | 58.2 |
| January 2017 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 52.6 | 64.5 | 54.7 | 45.0 | 46.3 | 58.5 |
| February 2017 | 50.8 | 51.2 | 51.4 | 64.2 | 56.3 | 47.6 | 46.0 | 60.0 |
| March 2017 | 51.0 | 50.5 | 53.4 | 59.3 | 53.2 | 47.3 | 46.1 | 58.3 |
| April 2017 | 50.6 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 48.7 | 48.2 | 45.0 | 56.6 |
| May 2017 | 50.7 | 50.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 56.8 |
| June 2017 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 47.2 | 58.7 |
| July 2017 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 52.7 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 59.1 |
| August 2017 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 65.3 | 57.4 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 59.5 |
| September 2017 | 51.3 | 51.1 | 53.8 | 68.4 | 59.4 | 44.2 | 47.4 | 59.4 |
| October 2017 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
Note
1. Explanation of key indicators
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled by the calculation of the monthly survey results of the enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation. It is the international general trend of monitoring macroeconomic trends. PMI is usually 50% as the economic strength of the demarcation point, PMI higher than 50%, reflecting the manufacturing sector economic expansion; less than 50%, then reflect the manufacturing economy shrink.
2. Scope of investigation
Involving the "national economic industry classification" (GB / T4754-2011) in the manufacturing sector of the 31 major categories, 3,000 survey samples.
3. Survey method
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers survey using PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method to the manufacturing industry category for the class, the industry sample size according to its added value accounted for the proportion of all the manufacturing value-added distribution, the use of the sample and the main business Business income is proportional to the probability of extraction.
The survey by the National Bureau of Statistics directly under the investigation team to organize the implementation of the use of national statistical network direct reporting system for enterprise purchasing managers monthly survey.
4. Calculation method
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Survey Questionnaire related to production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, ex-factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and business activities Is expected to wait 13 questions, calculate the diffusion index for each question, ie the percentage of respondents who are answering the positive percentage of the percentage of the respondents, and the ex-factory price index is released in January 2017.
PMI is a composite index, which is calculated by the five diffusion indices (sub-index). The five sub-indices and their weights are determined according to their degree of impact on the economy, including the new order index, 30%; production index, the weight of 25%; practitioners index, the weight of 20%; supplier delivery time index, the weight of 15%; raw material inventory index, the weight of 10%, of which supplier delivery time The index is the inverse, and the inverse is calculated when the PMI composite index is synthesized.
5. Seasonal adjustment
Purchasing Managers' Survey is a monthly survey, subject to seasonal factors, and the data fluctuates significantly, and the PMI composite index and the sub-index are all seasonally adjusted data. The improvement of production and business activity expectations in January 2017 Season adjustment method, and revision of historical data.