Macro 2017 global semiconductor industry three major trends
The tight supply of tight memory prices is the key to double-digit growth in global semiconductors in 2017. From July 2016 to July 2017, DRAM prices have doubled in just one year, and market research firm IC Insights It is expected that the DRAM market will grow by 55% year-on-year and the NAND flash market will grow by 35% year-on-year in 2017. The memory market is about a quarter of the total size of the semiconductor market, so its price volatility has a very big impact on the industry. Estimates that if not included in the DRAM and NAND flash memory, semiconductor growth rate in 2011 will be only 6%, 16% growth than expected 16% decline.With DRAM and NAND flash memory outstanding performance, Samsung Semiconductor in the second quarter of 2017 beyond Intel, the end of Intel's more than 20 years ranked the leading position of the semiconductor record.
Capital cooling On the other hand, after 20 years of continuous years (2015 to 2016) 100 billion US dollars level after the acquisition of the next year, 2017 semiconductor industry in the capital market action smaller, if not Mobileye as a semiconductor company, then 2017 As of now the total amount of mergers and acquisitions only about 2 billion US dollars in the United States government for China's background capital acquisition review more stringent, Lattice's acquisition by US President Trump veto, including the new rules and changes in the securities market led After several capital operation stranded, return to the road of A shares twists and turns of Howe technology, there is no clear direction, and trillion easy to innovate has stopped the core into the semiconductor acquisition.
Competition intensified mergers and acquisitions and other capital markets to reduce the operation, but the semiconductor industry capital expenditure has not been reduced.Tian Sanxing a company, the first half of 2017 in the semiconductor field ho throw 11 billion US dollars, Intel in 2017 formally produced its 10-nanometer FinFET process , SK Hynix also announced the expansion of DRAM, TSMC announced that the 3-nanometer plant will be settled in Tainan, plus from the beginning of 2015 China's planned ten new lines, the current capacity of the situation, in a year or two A major reversal.
Downstream application industry trend
New electronic components become a new era of the main body With the downstream consumer electronics products increasingly light and intelligent direction, electronic components are also entering a new era of electronic components as the main body of electronic components from the original only to adapt to the whole Machine miniaturization and new technology requirements of the main improvement, to meet the digital technology, microelectronics technology development proposed by the characteristics of the main requirements, but also to meet the set of industrial development stage.
The new electronic components are characterized by high frequency, chip type, miniaturization, thin type, low power consumption, fast response speed, high resolution, high precision, high power, modular and other characteristics, matching the production process precision, Process automation, production environment also requires more and more high.
China's production and consumption of electronic components as a big country, the output of electronic components accounted for nearly 39% of the global domestic manufacturers have always followed up the development trend, and constantly improve their technical capacity and product quality, catch up with international advanced enterprises, efforts to shorten the gap , In order to better meet the domestic market for the needs of electronic components.
Moore's law is on the verge of the limit, but the electronic information industry will continue to progress One of Intel's founders Gordon Moore has done such a prediction: every two years the number of microprocessors will be doubled - means that the chip processing power Is also the most famous 'Moore's Law' in the semiconductor industry. This exponential growth has led to the transformation of large-scale home computers in the 1970s into more advanced machines in the 1980s and 1990s, Internet, smartphone and now car networking, smart fridge and smart thermostat.
But from 2000 to 2005, the interval between Moore's Law began to slow down to two or three years, and recently evolved into doubling every four years, so the industry is moving towards the silicon chip's performance limit, but it means that electronics Does the information industry come to an end? No, with the past to improve the chip, the software then keep up with the development trend is different from the future development of the semiconductor industry will first look at the software, and then in turn to support the operation of software and applications need to deal with what Chip to support, due to the new computing devices become more and more mobile, the new chip, there may be a new generation of sensors, power management circuits and other silicon devices. Quantum computing, DNA data storage, Computing and a series of new technologies will continue to promote the development of the industry.
Today, the electronic information industry application hotspot from the initial computer, communication extended to the Internet of things hardware products, automotive electronics and other fields, especially the rapid development of intelligent network of vehicles, for the sensor , MCU (micro control unit), laser equipment, infrared equipment, radar equipment, GPS and other industries to bring new opportunities for development.
With the increase in the number of sensors required for automotive electronics, manufacturers must continue to develop new, high-precision, high reliability, low cost and intelligent sensors; with the automotive electronics accounted for the proportion of vehicles continue to increase, MCU in the car The application of the field will exceed the number of home appliances and communications used to become the world's largest MCU applications; with the vehicle need to accurately perceive the surrounding state and the formation of feedback on the environment, laser, infrared, radar and other processing devices more advanced; Networking requires the transmission and exchange of large amounts of data, and the growing use of data bus technology.
At present, many well-known semiconductor manufacturers at home and abroad are focused on the launch of its smart car series of chip products; many communications manufacturers are committed to the development of high-speed network, low-latency advanced communications technology; traditional car companies and technology giants are strong Join hands to grab the unmanned high ground ... ... can imagine, in the future, the car is a step on the wheels of the 'super smart phone'.
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the focus of the world economy from the Internet, finance and other virtual industries back to the physical manufacturing industry in the global manufacturing industry are bottlenecks in the development (asset availability is not high, Data transparency, industrial information security issues, poor production flexibility and rising labor costs, etc.), the United States proposed the 'industrial Internet', Japan proposed industrial revitalization plan, Germany put forward the 'industry 4.0', China put forward the ' Made in China 2025 '. The core of these plans is to use the emerging technologies represented by the Internet of Things to upgrade the original manufacturing industry.
A new generation of information technology and manufacturing depth of integration, will promote the manufacturing model, production organization and the profound changes in the form of industry, which is a new electronic information industry blue ocean.Currently, the United States, Germany and other efforts to promote intelligent manufacturing developed countries, There are a number of electronic information in the field of outstanding multinational companies to provide technical and service support, such as GE's Predix industrial Internet operating system, Siemens MindSphere Internet of Things operating system ... Europe and the United States these enterprises have in the integration of information technology and manufacturing industry in the forefront of the world , To seize the technical and standard system of high.
But in China is not far behind, in December 2016, the Ministry of Industry issued a national "smart manufacturing 'thirteen five' development plan", "planning" proposed by 2020, significantly enhance the basis of intelligent manufacturing and support capacity, the traditional manufacturing focus The basic realization of the field of digital manufacturing. By 2025, intelligent manufacturing support system is basically established, focusing on the initial realization of intelligent transformation of industry.
China into the largest market demand for semiconductors
Supply of tension, capital cooling, increased competition, wave of deceitful, usher in a good year of the semiconductor industry is cultivating more variables.As the world's largest integrated circuit consumer market in China, but also change opportunities to seek opportunities to improve the external China's semiconductor has been maintaining double-digit growth rate, manufacturing, design and packaging and testing industry development is increasingly balanced, but according to the plan, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency rate in 2020 to reach 40%, that is, industry The total size reached 93 billion yuan (according to the semi-association statistics, 2016 industry-wide sales of 433.55 billion yuan), to achieve this goal, the development of these two years is critical.
Design industry, to see the independent development of Lattice (FPGA products for the main business) acquisition was rejected, marking the acquisition of overseas companies to accelerate the development of the industry's ideas are not realistic, the more critical areas, the United States and other countries for China The limit will be strict, only self-development, is the fundamental way to get rid of restrictions.
In the long term, the United States rejected the Lattice case, which is not necessarily a bad thing for the development of China's FPGA industry.Although ahead of China's competitors, but Lattice and Xilinx and Intel (acquisition of the original FPGA manufacturers Altera) gap Large, as long as the Chinese manufacturers technical route to choose a reasonable, the Government to create a better environment for development in the FPGA such a long process of long-term industry, the growth of one or two rivals can compete with world-class manufacturers is still possible in 2017 During the IC China, Gao Yun, An Lu Technology, Xi'an Chi multi-crystal micro will be released its latest FPGA products.
Manufacturing industry, to see the stability of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry is the gap between the industry and the world's largest one of the 2017 years of unlimited memory market, China is the pay side of the party, whether DRAM or NAND flash memory, the current self-sufficiency rate is still zero .In the construction of the Yangtze River storage, will be the first to launch the 3D NAND market charge.However, the memory market competition is fierce, decades of weak competitors have been out, and now has formed an oligarchy.How to develop the memory industry, the reader can go to IC China held a "global high-tech industry development forecast" forum to listen to the views of industry analysts.
In the foundry market, Chinese manufacturers are also facing challenges and opportunities.On the one hand, the Chinese design company in the rapid growth of local design companies naturally have the tendency to support local manufacturers; the other hand, the development of the necessary funds for development, human And the accumulation of knowledge and the threshold is getting higher and higher, in these areas, the gap between Chinese manufacturers and the world's leading manufacturers have widened trend.How to stabilize on the basis of the existing, and gradually narrow the gap with the world's advanced level, quite test SMIC, Huahong Hongli, Hua Li micro and other Chinese manufacturers operating capacity.
According to IC Insights data, 2016 in the world's top ten outsourcing outside the packaging and testing plant in three from the mainland, which long power technology among the top three, and the moon and moonlight, according to IC Insights data, And the first group. Tongfu micro-electricity and Tianshui Huatian also ranked the top 10. Long Power Technology Chairman Wang Xinchao on the eve of the IC China said that China's semiconductor to catch up with the world's advanced level is also needed Ten years, but the packaging technology threshold is relatively low, the domestic development base is relatively good, so the packaging and testing industry to catch up faster than the design and manufacture of China's first comprehensive semiconductor leading global enterprises, most likely in the packaging and testing industry appear.
October 25, 2017, IC China 2017 will be officially opened, China's performance this year, how the development of what the situation, which areas more worthy of investment, and only to the scene to glimpse the whole of the exhibition scale to 15,000 square meters More than 200 exhibitors, about 15% increase over the same period last year, bringing together semiconductor design, packaging and testing, manufacturing, equipment and materials, as well as memory, FPGA, EDA, networking, MEMS, NB-IoT, power and other hot areas. During the period will be held '15th China International Semiconductor Summit Forum' '2017 The 15th China (Shanghai) Automotive Electronics and Intelligent Network Automotive Core Technology Summit', '2017 China Electronic Components and Materials Technology Development Summit Forum' '2017 China Shanghai Embedded System Security Forum', 'NB-IoT Technology Application Innovation and Integration Forum', 'Second (Shanghai) Power Supply Semiconductor Technology Forum' and '2017 Semiconductor Equipment and Core Parts Manufacturers Dialogue'. Will also be organized by the large enterprise technical personnel and procurement decision-making engineers involved in the special procurement promotion activities to promote exhibitors show their products to increase sales opportunity.
At the same time, the organizing committee hand in hand procurement platform lemon beans held "2017 appliances intelligent technology and development forum", will invite the United States, Hisense, TCL household appliances, Whirlpool, Meiling, Jinghong, Konka, Skyworth, Rui Chi, Fang Tai, Four Seasons Mu song Such as the whole machine procurement enterprises, bringing together a large number of intelligent program needs and new technologies.The forum will focus on the scene to showcase the industry's leading new products, technology applications, and promote the supply and demand enterprises on-site precision docking, can greatly promote the efficient supply and demand business and intelligent innovation of home appliances industry development of.